Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Is after-hours trading informative?

Ulibarri, Carlos A. (1998): Is after-hours trading informative? Published in: Journal of Futures Markets , Vol. 18, No. 5 (1998): pp. 563-579.

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This article investigates price and trading volume relations for near term crude oil contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The study investigates the informativeness of after-hours trading under the prior assumption that daytime and after-hours trading sessions are completely segmented. The research methodology uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) structural model to identify the lead/lag structure between the leading overnight session and the lagging daytime session. This framework permits us to impose testable restrictions in considering the view that after-hours price changes and trading volumes provide contemporaneous information in the daytime price discovery process. Furthermore, the reduced-form VAR allows testing whether innovations (surprises) in daytime prices and trading activity influence overnight price/volume behavior.

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