Consommation d’énergies et croissance du PIB dans les pays de l’UEMOA : Une analyse en données de panel

Okey, Mawussé Komlagan Nézan (2009): Consommation d’énergies et croissance du PIB dans les pays de l’UEMOA : Une analyse en données de panel.

Abstract

This paper analyze the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth,as well as the relationship between energy sources for a panel of four WAEMU countries; Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Togo, for the period 1970-2005. Econometric analysis results indicate that there are: a bi-directional causality between oil consumption and economic growth, for the panel as a whole, but no causality between electricity and economic growth, and no substitution between energy sources at the short run. At the long run, there is a bi-directional causality between economic growth and both the energy sources which become substitutable. These results not only underline the energy dependence of the economic growth, and the rigidity of energy consumption behaviors of these four countries at the short run, but also support regional energy policies which must take account some countries specificities.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Energy consumption and GDP growth in WAEMU countries : A panel data analysis
• Language: French
• Keywords: energy consumption, economic growth, panel, WAEMU
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q40 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models

References

Al-Iriani, Mahmoud, A., “Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality”, Energy Policy, 2006, 34, 3342-3350.

Asafu-Adjaye, John, “The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries”, Energy Economics, 2000, 22, 615–625.

Aspergis, Nicholas and Payne, James, E., “Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model”, Energy Economics, 2009, 31, 211–216.

Bai, J., and Ng, S., “A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration.”, Econometrica, 2004, 72, pp. 1127-1177.

Banerjee, A., “Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview. », Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 61, pp. 607-630.

BOAD, Forum sur le Thème : “ Les Etats de l’UEMOA face aux défis du développement ”, 33ème anniversaire de la BOAD, 2008, Rapport de synthèse des travaux, Lomé.

Breitung, J., “The local power of some unit root tests for panel data.”, Advances in Econometrics, 2000, 15, 161–177.

Breitung, J., “A Parametric Approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data.”, Economtric Reviews, 2005, pp. 151-174.

Déry, Patrick “Substitution énergétique : Mythe ou Réalité ?” Rapport sur l’énergie régionale, Octobre 2007.

Dickey, D., A., and Fuller W., A., “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for AutoRegressive Time Series with a Unit Root.”, Econometrica, 1981, 49, pp. 1057-1072.

Engle, R., F., and Granger C., W., J., “Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 1987, 64, pp. 813-836.

Erbaykal, Erman, “Disaggregate Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 2008, Issue 20, ISSN, 1450-2887.

Fatai, K.; Oxley, L. et Scrimgeour, F., G., “ Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, The Philippines and Thailand”, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 2004, 64.

Hurlin, Christophe et Mignon, Valérie, “ Une synthèse des tests de racine unitaire sur données de panel ”, Économie et Prévision 2005/ 3-4-5, n° 169, p. 253-294.

Hurlin, Christophe et Mignon, Valérie, “ Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de Panel ”, Économie et Prévision 2007/ 4, n° 180-181, p. 241-265.

Im, Kyung, S.; Pesaran, Hashem, M. and Shin,Yongcheol, “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels.”, Journal of Econometrics, 2003,115, 53-74.

Kraft, J., and Kraft, A., “On the relationship between energy and GNP. ”, Journal of Energy and Development, 1978, 3, 401–403.

Lee, Chien-Chiang and Chang, Chun-Ping, “Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: evidence from Taiwan.”, Energy Economics, 2005, 27 (6), 857–872.

Levin, Andrew; Lin Chien-Fu, and Chu, C., S., J., “Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 2002, 108, pp. 1-24.

Lütkepohl, H., “Non-causality due to omitted variables”, Journal of Econometrics, 1982, 19, 267–378.

Masih, A., M., M., and Masih, R., “A multivariate co integrated modeling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs ”, Applied Economics, 1998, 30 (10), 1287–1298.

McCoskey, S., and Kao, C., “A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration in Panel Data”, Econometric Reviews, 1998, 17, pp. 57-84.

Mehrara, Mohsen, “Energy consumption and economic growth: the case of oil exporting countries”, Energy Policy, 2007, n°35, 2939–2945.

Narayan, Paresh, K., and Smyth, Russell, “Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia: evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests”, Energy Policy, 2005, 33, 1109–1116.

Narayan, Paresh, K., and Smyth, Russell, “Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks”, Energy Economics, 2008, 30, 2331–2341.

Narayan, Paresh, K., and Smyth, Russell, “Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries.”, Energy Policy, 2009, 37, 229–236

Perron, P., “Test consistency with varying ampling frequency”, Econometric Theory, 1991, 7,341–368.

Pedroni, P., “Panel Cointegration, Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis”, Working Paper in Economics, 1995, 92-013, Indiana University.

Pedroni, P., “Panel Cointegration. Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, 2004, 20(3). pp. 597-625.

Phillips, P., C., B., and Hansen, B., E., “ Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes”, Review of Economic Studies, 1990, 57, pp. 99-125.

PISE “Présentation des résultats de l’étude du secteur de l’énergie des pays de l’UEMOA et du Cameroun ”, Rencontre Sectorielle ACP /EU pour La Promotion du Partenariat Interentreprises et des Investissements dans le Secteur de l’énergie, février 2005.

Rufael, Wolde, Y., “Energy demand and economic growth: the African experience”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 2005, 27 (8), 891–903.

Sari, Ramazan, and Soytas, Ugur, “The growth of income and energy consumption in six developing countries”, Energy Policy, 2007, 35 (2), 889–898.

Squalli, J., “Electricity consumption and economic growth: bounds and causality analyses of OPEC countries”, Energy Economics, 2007, 29, 1192–1205.

Sokona, Youba ; Sarr, Sécou et Thomas, Jean, P., “Les Enjeux des Technologies d’Energie Renouvelable dans la lutte contre la désertification ”, Nairobi, Kenya 7 – 8 May 2004 Conférence des Ministres Africains se l’Energie UNCCD.

Soytas, Ugur, Sari, Ramazan, “Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets”, Energy Economics, 2003, 25, 33–37.

Stern, D., “Energy and economic growth in the USA: a multivariate approach”, Energy Economics, 1993, 15, 137–150.

Stern, D., “Multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the U.S. macroeconomy”, Energy Economics, 2000, 22, 267–283.

World Development Indictors, 2008 World Bank: Washington DC

Yoo, S., H., “The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries”, Energy Policy, 2006, 34 (18), 3573–3582.

Westerlund, Joakim, “Testing for panel cointegration with multiple structural breaks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2006, 68, 101–132.

Westerlund, Joakim, “Testing for error correction in panel data”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2007, 69: 709-748