Carton, Christine (2009): Mecanismos kaldorianos del crecimiento regional: Aplicación empírica al caso del ALADI (1980-2007). Published in: Economic Analysis Papers (Spain) , Vol. 5, No. 8 : pp. 1-24.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_15675.pdf Download (553kB) | Preview |
Abstract
According to Kaldor (1970), regional growth patterns arise from a cumulative causation process as broadly combining two substantial mechanisms i.e. a productivity regime, known as the “Kaldor-Verdoorn” law, and a demand regime due to the expansion of exportations. This paper attempts to assess empirically the Kaldor’s framework in characterizing economic growth for 11 ALADI countries from a panel data set over period 1980 to 2007. After having controlled industrial heterogeneity, the results are indicating the existence of two regional trends within member states, especially in terms of external demand constraint. It can be pointed out a group of countries for which the link between productivity gains and demand growth has become weaker, due to an increasing external dependence as well as a detrimental competitive position. Finally, findings are quite conclusive insofar as the existence of the Kaldorian mechanisms is corroborated in explaining trajectories of ALADI countries while both increasing returns to scale and demand led growth are seemingly playing a significant role in the region.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Mecanismos kaldorianos del crecimiento regional: Aplicación empírica al caso del ALADI (1980-2007) |
English Title: | Kaldorian mechanisms of regional growth: An empirical application to the case of ALADI 1980-2007 |
Language: | Spanish |
Keywords: | ALADI;causality;growth;exports;Kaldor'slaw;GMM;panel |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E12 - Keynes ; Keynesian ; Post-Keynesian O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O54 - Latin America ; Caribbean C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models |
Item ID: | 15675 |
Depositing User: | Christine Carton |
Date Deposited: | 12 Jun 2009 07:25 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2019 08:33 |
References: | Abramovitz, M. (1986), “Catching-up, Forging Ahead and Falling Behind” Journal of Economic History, vol. 46, pp. 385-406. Amable, B. (1992), “Effets d’apprentissage, compétitivité hors-prix et croissance cumulative”, Economie Appliquée, vol. 45, pp. 5-31. Amable, B. (1993), “Catch-up and Convergence: A Model of Cumulative Growth”, International Review of Applied Economics, vol.7 (1), pp.1-25. Arellano, M. (2003), Panel Data Econometrics. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003. Arellano, M. & S. Bond (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, vol.58, pp. 277-297. Arellano, M. & O. Bover (1995), “Another look at the Instrumental-Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 68 (1), pp. 29-52. Balassa, B. (1961), The Theory of Economic Integration, London, Allen & Unwin 1961. Baumol, W.J. (1986), “Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Shows”, American Economic Review, vol. 78, pp. 1155-1159. Bell, M. & K. Pavitt (1992), “Accumulating Technological Capability in Developing Countries”, Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics – 1992, Washington D.C. Bértola, L., Higashi, H. & G. Porcile (2002), “Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil: a test of Thirlwall's Law, 1890-197”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol.25 (1), pp. 123-140. Blundell, R. & S.R. Bond (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 87 (1), pp. 115-143. Blundell, R. & S.R. Bond (2000), “GMM Estimation with Persistent Panel Data: An Application to Production Functions,” Econometric Reviews, vol. 19, pp. 321-340. Boyer, R. & P. Petit (1991), “Technical Change, Cumulative Causation and Growth. Accounting for the Contemporary Productivity Puzzle with some Post-Keynesian Theories”, in Technology and Productivity, the Challenge for Economic Policy. OCDE, Paris 1991. Carton, C. (2002), Dynamique de croissance, Environnement technologique et Accumulation en Asie: Le rôle de l’éducation. Thèse de Doctorat. Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis, France. CEPAL (2003), Globalización y Desarrollo: Una Reflexión desde América Latina y el Caribe, Colombia, Banco Mundial, Alfaomega, 2003. CEPAL (2004), Estudio Económico 2004-2005, CEPAL: Santiago de Chile 2004. Dixon, R. & A. Thirlwall (1975), “A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines”, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 11 pp.201-212. Dollar, D. (1992), “Outward-oriented developing countries really do grow more rapidly: evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976–85”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 40(3), pp. 523-544. Durlauf, S. & D. Quah (1999), “The new empirics of economic growth”, in Handbook of Macroeconomics. Elsevier, Vol.1, Cap. 4, pp: 235-308. Durlauf, S., Johnson, P. & J. Temple (2005), “The Convergence Hypothesis”, in P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (eds). Handbook of Economic Growth. Cap. 8, Elsevier B.V, pp. 582-607. Eatwell, J. (1987), Import Substitution and Export-Led Growth”, in Eatwell J., Milgate M., Newman P.(eds), The New Palgrave, vol. 2, pp. 737-738. Fingleton, B. (2000), “Convergence: international comparisons based on a simultaneous equation model with regional effects”, International Review of Applied Economics, vol. 14(3), pp. 285-305. Fingleton, B. & J.S.L. McCombie (1998), “Increasing Returns and Economic Growth: Some Evidence for Manufacturing from the European Union Regions”, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 50(1), pp. 89-105. Frankel, J.A. & D. Romer (1999), “Does trade cause growth?’, American Economic Review, vol. 89, pp. 379-399. Fujita, M. & F. J. Thisse (1996), “Economics of agglomeration”, Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, vol. 10, pp. 339-378. García, M. & A. Quevedo (2005), “Crecimiento económico y la balanza de pagos: Evidencia empírica para Colombia”, Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 24(43), pp. 83-104. Gomulka, S. (1990). The Theory of Technological Change and Economic Growth. London, Routledge 1990. Gordon, D.M. (1991), “Kaldor’s Macro System : Too Much Cumulation, Too Few Contradictions” in Nell E.J, Semmler W. (Eds). Nicholas Kaldor and Mainstream Economics: Confrontation or Convergence ?. London : Macmillan, 1991. Granger, C.W.J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods”, Econometrica, vol. 37, pp. 424-438. Grossman, G.M. & E. Helpman (1995), “Technology and Trade”, in G. Grossman & K. Rogoff (eds). Handbook of International Economics, Vol. III, Elsevier Science, pp. 1279-1335. Helpman, E. & P.R. Krugman (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade. Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Hildreth, A. (1989), “The Ambiguity of Verdoorn’s Law: A Case Study of the British Regions.”, Journal of Post-Keynesian Economic, vol. 36, pp. 268-284. Hirschman, A.O. (1958), The Strategy of Economic Development, Yale University Press 1958. Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2003. Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. & Y. Shin (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 115, pp. 53-74. Islam, N. (2003), ‘What have we Learnt from the Convergence Debate?’, Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 17, pp. 309-362. Kaldor, N. (1957), “A Model of Economic Growth”, Economic Journal, vol. 67, pp.5 91-624. Kaldor, N. (1966), Causes of the Slow Rate of Growth of the United Kingdom. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 1966. Kaldor, N. (1967), Strategic Factors in Economic Development, New York, Ithaca. Kaldor, N. (1970), “The Case for Regional Policies.”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol. 85, pp. 337-348. Kaldor, N. (1972), “The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics”, Economic Journal, vol. 82, pp. 1237-1255. Kaldor, N. (1978), Further Essays on Economic Theory, Holmes and Meier Publishers, Inc., New York. Kaldor, N. (1981), “The role of Increasing Returns, Technical Progress and Cumulative Causation in the Theory of International Trade and Economic Growth”, Economie Appliquée, vol. 34(6), pp. 593-617. Kaldor, N. & J. Mirrlees (1962), “A new Model of Economic Growth”, Review of Economic Studies, vol. 29 (3), pp. 25-43. Kao, C. (1999), “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Panel Cointegration”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 90, pp. 1-44. Krugman, P. (1991), “Increasing Returns and Economic Geography”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 99, pp. 484-499. Krugman P. & A.J. Venables (1996), “Integration, Specialization, and Adjustment”, European Economic Review, vol. 40, pp. 959-967. Léon-Ledesma, M.A. (1999), “Verdoorn’s Law and Increasing Returns: An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Regions”, Applied Economics Letters, vol. 6, pp. 373–376. Léon-Ledesma, M.A. (2002), “Accumulation, Innovation and Catching-up: an Extended Cumulative Growth Model,” Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 26, pp. 201–216. Levin A., Lin, C. F. & C.S. Chu (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 108, pp. 1-24. Libanio, G. (2006), “Manufacturing industry and economic growth in Latin America: A Kaldorian approach”, Second Annual Conference for Development and Change Campos Do Jordão, Brazil, Dic. 2006. Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. & D. Weil (1992), “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 107, pp. 407-437. Márquez, Y. (2006), “Estimaciones econométricas del crecimiento en Colombia mediante la ley de Thirlwall”, Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 25 (44), pp. 119-142. McCombie, J.S.L. (1982), “Economic Growth, Kaldor’s Law and the static-dynamic paradox”, Applied Economics, vol. 14, pp. 279-294. McCombie, J.S.L. (1985), “Economic Growth, the Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Hick’s Super-Multiplier”, Applied Economics, vol. 17, pp. 55-72. McCombie, J.S.L. (1988), “A Synoptic View of Regional Growth and Unemployment: II–The Post-Keynesian Theory”, Urban Studies, vol. 25, pp. 399-417. McCombie, J.S.L. (1997), “On the empirics of balance of payments constrained growth”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 19(3), pp. 345-375. McCombie, J.S.L. & J.R. Ridder (De) (1984), “The Verdoorn Law Controversy: Some New Evidence Using US Data”, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 36, pp. 268-284. McCombie, J.S.L & M. Roberts (2007), “Returns to scale and regional growth: The static-dynamic Verdoorn law paradox revisited”, Journal of Regional Science, vol. 47(2), pp. 179-208. McCombie, J.S.L. & A. P. Thirlwall (1997), “The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-Oriented Approach to Economic Growth: An Evaluation” International Review of Applied Economics, vol. 11(1), pp. 5-26. Moreno-Brid, J.C. (2002), “A New Approach to Test the Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Model, with Reference to the Mexican Economy”, in Davidson P. (ed)), A Post Keynesian Perspective on 21st Century Economic Problems, London: Edward Elgar 2002. Myrdal, G. (1957). Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions. London : Duckworth 1957. Ocegueda, J. (2000), “La hipótesis de Crecimiento Restringido por Balanza de Pagos. Una Evaluación de la Economía Mexicana 1960-1997”, Investigación Económica, LX (232), pp. 91-122. Oreiro, J.L & L. Nakabashi (2007), “The Economics of Demand Led-Growth Theory and Evidence for Brazil”, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Working Papers 0007. Pacheco-López, P. & A. P. Thirlwall (2006), “Trade liberalization, the income elasticity of demand for imports, and growth in Latin America”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, vol. 29 (1), pp. 41-61, Pacheco-López, P. & A. P. Thirlwall (2007), “Trade Liberalization and the Trade-Off Between Growth and the Balance of Payments in Latin America”, International Review of Applied Economics, vol. 21 (4), pp. 469-490. Pedroni, P. (1999), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic Statistics, Special Issue, pp. 653-669. Pedroni, P. (2004), “Panel cointegration; Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, vol. 20, pp. 597-625. Richardson, H.W. (1973), Regional Growth Theory, London: Macmillan. 1973. Rivera-Batiz, L. & P. Romer (1991), “Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 106, pp. 531-55. Rowthorn, R.E (1975), “What Remains of Kaldor’s Law?”, Economic journal, vol. 85, pp. 10-19. Sachs, J.D. & A. Warner (1995), “Economic reform and the process of global integration”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 1-118. Sevestre, P. (2002). Econométrie des données de Panel. Dunod, Paris 2002. Singh, A. (2006), Macroeconomic Volatility: The Policy Lessons from Latin America”, IMF Working Paper 06/166. Solow, R. M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70. pp. 65-94. Targetti, F. & A. Foti (1997), “Growth and Productivity: a Model of Cumulative Growth and Catching-up”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 21, pp. 27-43. Temple, J. (1999), “The new growth evidence”, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 37(1), pp. 112-156. Thirlwall, A. P. (1979), “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, vol. VI, pp. 45-53. Thirlwall, A.P. (1986), “A General Model of Growth and Development on Kaldorian Lines”, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 38(2), pp. 199-219. Thirlwall, A. P. & M.N. Hussain (1982), “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries”, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 34(3), pp. 498-510. Vasquez, A., Bismarck, J., Charquero, R., & A. Winston (2007), “Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Evidence for Bolivia 1953-2002”, MPRA Paper, 5685. Verdoorn, P.J. (1949), “ Fattori che Regolano lo Sviluppo della Produttivita del Lavoro”, L’industria, vol. 1, pp. 45-53. Young, A. (1928), “Increasing returns and Economic Progress”, Economic Journal, vol. 38, pp. 527-542. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/15675 |