The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election

Hibbs, Douglas A. (2007): The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election.

Abstract

In this paper I apply the Bread and Peace model of voting in US presidential elections to analyze the sources of George W. Bush’s narrow re-election victory in 2004. The aggregate election outcome is readily explained by the model’s objectively measured political-economic fundamentals – no appeal need be made to arbitrary count, trend, dummy and switching variables. The results imply that the 2004 election turned mainly on weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term. The war in Iraq, which has escalated dramatically in political relevance since the 2004 contest, had a relatively small impact on the election result, most likely depressing Bush’s two-party vote share by less than a half percentage point.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: 2004 US presidential election; voting and economy; Iraq and 2004 US election; bread and peace voting
• Subjects: H - Public Economics > H0 - General; Z - Other Special Topics > Z0 - General > Z00 - General; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P16 - Political Economy

References

Bartels, Larry. 1997. “Correspondence: econometrics and elections.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 11: 195-97.

Fair, Ray. 1978. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” Review of Economics and Statistics 60: 159-172.

Fair, Ray. 1982. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results.” Review of Economics and Statistics 64: 322-325.

Fair, Ray. 1988. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update.” Political Behavior 10(2): 168-179.

Fair, Ray. November 1990. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update.” web document at http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu//vote2008/index2.htm.

Fair, Ray. 1996a. “Econometrics and Presidential Elections.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10(3): 89-102.

Fair, Ray. 1996b. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update.” Political Behavior June: 119-139.

Fair, Ray. November 6, 1998. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1996 Update.” web document at http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu//vote2008/index2.htm.

Fair, Ray. 2004. “A Vote Equation and the 2004 Election.” web document at http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu//vote2008/index2.htm.

Hibbs, Douglas. 1982. “President Reagan's Mandate from the 1980 Elections: A Shift to the Right?” American Politics Quarterly 10: 387-420.

Hibbs, Douglas. 2000. “Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” Public Choice 104: 149-180.

Hibbs, Douglas. 2006. “Voting and the Macroeconomy.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy, ed. Donald Wittman and Barry Weingast. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 565–86.

Leamer, Edward. 1978. Specification Searches: Ad Hoc Inference with Nonexperimental Data. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Nordhaus, William. 2006. “Electoral Victory and Statistical Defeat? Economics, Politics and the 2004 Presidential Election.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 1: 313-322.