Hibbs, Douglas A. (2007): The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election.
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In this paper I apply the Bread and Peace model of voting in US presidential elections to analyze the sources of George W. Bush’s narrow re-election victory in 2004. The aggregate election outcome is readily explained by the model’s objectively measured political-economic fundamentals – no appeal need be made to arbitrary count, trend, dummy and switching variables. The results imply that the 2004 election turned mainly on weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term. The war in Iraq, which has escalated dramatically in political relevance since the 2004 contest, had a relatively small impact on the election result, most likely depressing Bush’s two-party vote share by less than a half percentage point.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election|
|Keywords:||2004 US presidential election; voting and economy; Iraq and 2004 US election; bread and peace voting|
|Subjects:||H - Public Economics > H0 - General
Z - Other Special Topics > Z0 - General > Z00 - General
P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P16 - Political Economy
|Depositing User:||Douglas A. Hibbs|
|Date Deposited:||26. Jun 2009 06:22|
|Last Modified:||20. Mar 2015 23:39|
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