Nunley, John and Zietz, Joachim (2008): The U.S. Divorce Rate: The 1960s Surge Versus Its Long-Run Determinants.
Download (650kB) | Preview
This study investigates the determinants of the U.S. divorce rate from 1929 to 2006, with particular emphasis on explaining its surge in the mid-1960s. The main finding is that the divorce rate and female labor-force participation, or equivalently female participation in higher education, are endogenous variables that are linked by a negative, long-run relationship. The availability of oral contraception shifted this negative relationship to a new, higher level of divorce rates during the late-1960s and early-1970s. The Vietnam War also contributed to the rise in the divorce rate at that time. The results are very robust to different estimation methodologies.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The U.S. Divorce Rate: The 1960s Surge Versus Its Long-Run Determinants|
|Keywords:||divorce rate, female labor-force participation, female participation in higher education, oral contraceptives, unilateral divorce laws, Vietnam War|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J10 - General
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J12 - Marriage ; Marital Dissolution ; Family Structure ; Domestic Abuse
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
|Depositing User:||John Nunley|
|Date Deposited:||17. Jul 2009 00:23|
|Last Modified:||11. Feb 2013 18:35|
Anderson, William L. and Derek W. Little. 1999. “All’s Fair: War and Other Causes of Divorce From a Beckerian Perspective.” American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 58(4): 901-922.
Bailey, Martha J. 2006. “More Power to the Pill: The Impact of Contraceptive Freedom on Women’s Labor Supply.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(1): 289-320.
Becker, Gary S. 1973. “A Theory of Marriage: Part I.” Journal of Political Economy, 81(4): 813-846.
_____. 1974. “A Theory of Marriage: Part II.” Journal of Political Economy, 82(2): S11-S26.
_____, Elisabeth Landes, and Robert Michael. 1977. “An Economic Analysis of Marital Instability.” Journal of Political Economy, 85(6): 1141-1188.
Bremmer, Dale and Randy Kesselring. 2004. “Divorce and Female Labor-Force Participation: Evidence from Time-Series Data and Cointegration.” Atlantic Economic Journal, 32(3): 175-190.
Charles, Kerwin and Melvin Stephens. 2004. “Job Displacement, Disability, and Divorce.” Journal of Labor Economics, 22(2): 489-522.
Christiano, Lawrence, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles Evans. 2005. “Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy.” Journal of Political Economy, 113(1): 1-45.
Costa, Dora. 2000. “From Mill Town to Board Room: The Rise of Women’s Paid Labor.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(4): 101-122.
Dennis, Jonathan, Henrick Hansen, Søren Johansen, and Katarina Juselius. 2005. CATS in RATS, Version 2. Estima: Evanston, IL.
Durbin, James, and Siem J. Koopman. 2001. Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods. Oxford University Press: New York.
Friedberg, Leora. 1998. “Did Unilateral Raise Divorce Rates? Evidence from Panel Data.” American Economic Review, 88(3): 608-627.
Goldin, Claudia. 2006. “The Quite Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family.” American Economic Review, 96(2): 1-21.
_____ and Lawrence F. Katz. 2000. “Career and Marriage in the Age of the Pill.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings of the American Economic Association, 90(2): 461-465.
_____ and _____. 2002. “The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women’s Career and Marriage Decisions.” Journal of Political Economy, 110(4): 730-770.
_____, _____, and Ilyana Kuziemko. 2006. “The Homecoming of American College Women: The Reversal of the College Gender Gap.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(4): 133-156.
Goldstein, Joshua. 1999. “The Leveling of Divorce Rates in the United States.” Demography, 36(3): 409-414.
Gonzalez, Libertad and Tara K. Viitanen. 2006. “The Effect of Divorce Laws on Divorce Rates in Europe.” IZA Discussion Paper No. 2023.
Gruber, Jonathan. 2004. “Is Making Divorce Easier Bad for Children? The Long-Run Implications of Unilateral Divorce.” Journal of Labor Economics, 22(4): 799-833.
Hoffman, Saul D., and Greg J. Duncan. 1995. “The Effect of Incomes, Wages, and AFDC Benefits on Marital Disruption.” Journal of Human Resources, 30(1): 19-41.
Hamilton, James D. 2008. “Macroeconomics and ARCH.” Working Paper, University of California, San Diego.
Harvey, Andrew. 1989. Forecasting Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
_____. 1997. “Trends, Cycles, and Autoregressions.” Economic Journal, 107(440): 192-201.
Johansen, Søren. 2002. “A Small Sample Correction of the Test for Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model.” Econometrica, 70(5): 1929-1961.
_____ and Katarina Juselius. 1990. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2): 169-210.
Johnson, William and Jonathan Skinner. 1986. “Labor Supply and Marital Separation.” American Economic Review, 76(3): 455-469.
Juselius, Katarina. 2006. The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications. Oxford University Press: Oxford and New York.
Koopman, Siem, Andrew Harvey, Jurgen Doornik. and Neil Shephard. 2000. Stamp: Structural Time Series Analyser, Modeller, and Predictor. Timberlake Consultants Press: London.
Lütkepohl, Helmut. 2007. New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Corr. 2nd printing, Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg, New York.
Matloff, Maurice. 1990. Strategic Planning for Coalition Warfare, 1943-1944. Center of Military History, United States Army, Washington, D.C.; available online at http://www.history.army.mil/books/wwii/sp1943-44/index.htm.
Michael, Robert. 1978. “The Rise in Divorce Rates, 1960-1974: Age-Specific Components.” Demography, 15(2): 177-182.
Nunley, John. 2008. “Inflation and Other Aggregate Determinants of the Trend in U.S. Divorce Rates since the 1960s.” Applied Economics, forthcoming.
Ruggles, Steven. 1997. “The Rise of Divorce and Separation in the United States, 1880-1990.” Demography, 34(4): 455-466.
Sen, Bisakha. 2000. “How Important is Anticipation of Divorce in Married Women’s Labor Supply Decisions? An Intercohort Comparison Using NLS Data.” Economic Letters, 67(2): 209-216.
Smith, Ian. 1997. “Explaining the Growth of Divorce in Great Britain.” Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 44(5): 519-544.
South, Scott. 1985. “Economic Conditions and the Divorce Rate: A Time-Series Analysis of Postwar United States.” Journal of Marriage and the Family, 47(1): 31-41.
Stevenson, Betsey and Justin Wolfers. 2007. “Marriage and Divorce: Changes and their Driving Forces.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2): 27-52.
Stock, James and Mark W. Watson. 2003. Introduction to Econometrics. Pearson Addison Wesley: Boston, San Francisco, New York, London.
Weiss, Yoram and Robert Willis. 1997. “Match Quality, New Information, and Marital Dissolution.” Journal of Labor Economics, 15(1): S293-S329.
Wolfers, Justin. 2006. “Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates? A Reconciliation and New Results.” American Economic Review, 96(5): 1802-1820.