Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Būvnozares prognozēšanas modelis un tā izstrādāšanas metodika

Skribans, Valerijs (2002): Būvnozares prognozēšanas modelis un tā izstrādāšanas metodika. Published in: Conferences matherials No. Tradicionālais un novatoriskais sabiedrības ilgspējīgā attīstībā (2002): pp. 356-364.


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There has been conducted research on the theme of forecasting in construction industry. Brunch model developing is problem in forecasting. In the paper is worked out influential factor system for construction industry. General part of industry forecasting model is part of demand forecasting. Construction demand consists of governmental, private and enterprises demand. Main idea of paper is that economic growth changes population economic structure. With economic growth population wellbeing increases in all revenue groups, persons move from one revenue group to next more rich. Possibility to estimate population structural changes, population growth, average revenue level of any group gives good quantity in private demand forecasting. Construction branch demand consists of total governmental, private and enterprises demand. This method allows seeing level of demand in different construction markets: private housing, industrial and strategic object building, reconstruction with high quantity.

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