Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda?

Olafsdottir, Katrin and Sigurdsson, Kari (2007): Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda?

Abstract

Every month the commercial banks in Iceland publish their inflation forecast for the coming month. This paper examines how accurate these forecasts were from 2000 to 2006. Most of the forecasts have similar accuracy where the inflation rate in the month in question is underestimated by 2 to 6 points. We did not find that a forecast is more likely to be accurate in a specific month if it was accurate in the previous month.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: How accurate are the inflation forecasts published by the commercial banks?
• Language: Icelandic
• Keywords: inflation, forecasts, root mean square error.
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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