Shirai, Sayuri (2009): 世界経済危機とグローバル・マネーの変動 ―国際経済秩序へのインプリケーションー.
Download (1MB) | Preview
Prior to the occurrence of the global financial crisis, the world had faced the “global imbalance.” This refers to the growing US current account deficit and, in parallel, the growing current account surpluses in China, other Asian countries, and resource-rich nations. This status of imbalance has been often called as the "Bretton Woods II system," as it shares the features similar to those of the Bretton Woods system prevailed from the 1945 to 1971. The Bretton Woods II system has been regarded sustainable for a time being as long as China and other Asian countries continue to pursue export-oriented growth strategies and actively intervene in the foreign exchange market aimed at stabilizing their currencies mainly against the US dollar. Nonetheless, the system entailed “instability” arising from the possibility of the system falling into the “hard-landing” scenario (triggered by the sudden withdrawal of foreign capital from the US markets, which leads to sharp dollar depreciation, decline in US stock prices, and cut in US long-term bond prices). The current global financial crisis differs from the hard-landing scenario, since it has not accompanied the “triple” declines. Nonetheless, the current crisis has resulted in re-balancing the global imbalance or a cut in US current account deficit. This paper examines the features related to the re-balancing of the global imbalance, and analyzes whether the structural features of the Brettton Woods II system as well as instability remain. The paper stresses that the imbalance between the United States and China has been strengthened further after the crisis, as evidenced from that fact that the share of China in US current account deficit has risen from about 30% in the pre-crisis period to over 70% currently. Structural features characterizing the Bretton Woods II system, as well as instability, have also been enhanced since the crisis. The paper also examines the possibility of the euro and SDR to replace the US dollar and concludes that the immediate substitution may not be possible in the near future. It also discusses the implications with respect to the framework for achieving strong, sustainable, balanced economic growth agreed in G20 financial summit in September 2009.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||世界経済危機とグローバル・マネーの変動 ―国際経済秩序へのインプリケーションー|
|English Title:||Global Economic Crisis and Movements of Cross-Border Capital Flows ―Implication to the Global Economic Order―|
|Keywords:||Global Financial Crisis, G20 Summit, Global Imlabace, Hard-Landing Scenario, Instability, China|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F42 - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
F - International Economics > F0 - General > F02 - International Economic Order and Integration
|Depositing User:||Sayuri Shirai|
|Date Deposited:||15. Nov 2009 08:17|
|Last Modified:||11. Feb 2013 10:55|
白井さゆり（2009d）[世界金融危機とG20 金融サミットをめぐる経済外交」,SFC ディスカッションペーパーSFC-DP 2009-002。
Alessandrini, Pietro and Michele Fratianni (2009) “International Monies, Special Drawing Rights and Supernational Money,” MoFir (Money&Finance Research Group) Working Paper No. 26.
Bernanke, Ben (2005)“The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit,” Remarks by Governor Ben Bernanke at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond, Virginia, March 10.
Dooley, Michael, David Falkerts-Landau, and Peter Garber (2003) “An Essay on the Revised Bretton Woods System,” NBER Working Paper No. 9971.
Dooley, Michael, David Falkerts-Landau, and Peter Garber (2009) “Bretton Woods II Still Defines the International Monetary System,” NBER Working Paper No. 14731
McKinnon, Ronald, Brian Lee, and Yi David Wang (2009) “The Global Credit Crisis and China’s Exchange Rate,” mimeo.
McKinnon, Ronald and Gunther Schnabl (2009) “China’s Financial Conundrum and Global Imbalances,” BIS Working Papers No. 277.
Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria(2008) “Fundamentals at Odds? The US Current Account Deficit and the Dollar,” IMF Working Paper WP/08/260.
Patnaik, Ila and Ajay Shah (2009) “The Difficulties of the Chinese and Indian Exchange Rate Regimes,” The European Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 6, No.1, pp.157-173.
Prasad, Eswar S. (2009) “Effects of the Financial Crisis on the U.S.-China Economic Relationship,” CATO Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp.223-235.
Roubini, Nouriel (2005)“Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? The Risk of a Hard Landing in 2005-06,”mimeo.
Roubini, Nouriel (2007)“The Instability of the Bretton Woods 2 Regime,” mimeo.
Sayuri Shirai (2009a), “Promoting Tokyo as an International Center,” Chapter 4,COMPETITION AMONG FINANCIAL CENTERS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC: PROSPECTS, BENEFITS, RISKS and POLICY CHALLENGES co-edited by Soongil Young, Dosoung Choi, Jesus Seade, and Sayuri Shirai, published by ISAS (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies) Publishing, Singapore.
Shirai, Sayuri, 2009b, “Evaluation the Present State of Japan as an International Financial Center,” a paper presented at the 4th APEC International Finance Conference to Commemorate the 13th Summit Meeting in Busan, Korea in November 2008 (to be published in 2009 as a chapter of a book issued by Pusan University, Korea).
Shirai, Sayuri, 2009c, “The Impact of the US Subprime Mortgage Crisis on the World and East Asia: Through Analyses of Cross-Border Capital Movements,” in Global Financial Crisis and its Impacts on Asian Economies, published by Nankai University Press, May 2009 (ERIA Discussion Paper Series).
Tsuyuguchi, Yusuke (2009) “The Recent Flow of Hot Money in China,” Center for Monetary Cooperation in Asia, Bank of Japan Review, 2009-E-3.
Warnock, Francis and Veronica Warnock (2006) “International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates,” FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 840.
Yongding, Yu (2009) “The Management of Cross-Border Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Stability in China,” TWN Global Economic Series 14, Third World Network.