Erler, Alexander and Krizanac, Damir (2009): Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik.
This is the latest version of this item.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_19045.pdf Download (766kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of the U.S. monetary policy on the Subprime mortgage crisis using a modified taylor rule. The main finding is that during the pre-crisis period the short term rate deviated significantly from the estimated taylor rate. This deviation may have been a cause of the ongoing financial crisis. However, the evidence also suggests that other factors were certainly at play.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik |
English Title: | Taylor Rule and the Subprime Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of the US Monetary Policy |
Language: | German |
Keywords: | Geldpolitik; Taylor-Regel; Subprime-Krise; Fed |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy |
Item ID: | 19045 |
Depositing User: | Alexander Erler |
Date Deposited: | 08 Dec 2009 05:23 |
Last Modified: | 26 Sep 2019 15:38 |
References: | Ahrend, R., B. Cournède und R. Price (2008), Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil, OECD Economics Department Working Paper 597, OECD Economics Department. ARGE-Institute (2006), Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2006. Hamburg: Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute e. V. Clarida, R., J. Galí und M. Gertler (1998), Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence, European Economic Review 42 (6), 1033–1067. Clausen, J. R. und C.-P. Meier (2005), Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real Time Data, Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik 141 (2), 213–245. Deutsche Bundesbank (1999), Taylor-Zins und Monetary Conditions Index, Monatsbericht April 1999 , 47–63. EZB (2001), Fragen im Zusammenhang mit geldpolitischen Regeln, Monatsbericht Oktober 2001 , 43–58. EZB (2004), Der natürliche Realzins im Euro-Währungsgebiet, Monatsbericht Mai 2004, 61–74. Fama, E. F. (1970), Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work, Journal of Finance 25 (2), 383–417. Fed. Philadelphia (2007), Survey of Professional Forecasters – Forth Quarter 2007, Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. FRB (The Federal Reserve Board) (2004), Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, February 11, 2004, Reports to congress, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. GD (2008a), Deutschland am Rande einer Rezession – Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2008. Essen: Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose. GD (2008b), Folgen der US-Immobilienkrise belasten Konjunktur – Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2008. Essen: Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose. Gerlach, S. und Schnabel (2000), The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area, Economic Letters 67 (2), 165–171. Gerlach-Kristen, P. (2003), Interest Rate Reaction Functions and the Taylor Rule in the Euro Area, Working Paper 258, Europäische Zentralbank. Gern, K.-J., C.-P. Meier und J. Scheide (2006), Euroland: Konjunkturelle Expansion erreicht Höhepunkt, in: Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel (Hrsg.), Kieler Diskussionbeiträge 430/431, 24–35. Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft. Goodfriend, M. (1998), Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 84 (3), 13–30. Greenspan, A. (1993), Testimony before the Subcommittee on Economic Growth and Credit Formation of the Committe on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, July 20, 1993, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Greenspan, A. (1994), Statement to Congress, May 27, 1994 (Monetary Policy), Federeal Reserve Bulletin 80 (7), 606–609. 22 Greenspan, A. (2005), Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress: testimony before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, February 16, 2005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Görgens, E., K. Ruckriegel und F. Seitz (2008), Europäische Geldpolitik – Theorie, Empirie, Praxis (5. Aufl.). Stuttgart: Lucius & Lucius. Kuttner, K. N. (2001), Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Fed Funds Futures Market, Journal of Monetary Economics 47 (3), 523–544. Maddala, G. S. (2001), Introduction to Econometrics (3. Aufl.). Chichester [u. a.]: Wiley. Orphanides, A. (2001), Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data, American Economic Review 91 (4), 964–985. Orphanides, A. und S. van Norden (2002), The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time, The Review of Economics and Statistics 84 (4), 569–583. Poole, W. (2007), Understanding the Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 89 (1), 3–13. Reinhart, C. M. und K. S. Rogoff (2008), Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison, NBER Working Paper 13761, National Bureau of Economic Research. Runkle, D. E. (1998), Revisionist History: How Data Revisions Distort Economic Policy Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 22 (4), 3–12. Sack, B. und V. Wieland (2000), Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence, Journal of Economics and Business 52 (1-2), 205–228. Stock, J. H. und M. W. Watson (2002), Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?, NBER Working Paper 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research. SVR (2000), Chancen auf einen höheren Wachstumspfad, Jahresgutachten 2000/01, Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Taylor, J. B. (1993), Discretion versus policy rules in practice, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39 (1), 195–214. Taylor, J. B. (1998), An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy, NBER Working Paper 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research. Taylor, J. B. (2007), Housing and Monetary Policy, NBER Working Paper 13682, National Bureau of Economic Research. Taylor, J. B. (2009), The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong, NBER Working Paper 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research. The Economist (2007), Does America need a recession? (Finance And Economics: Economics Focus), The Economist 384 (8543), 71. Wu, T. (2008), Accounting for the Bond-Yield Conundrum, Economic Letter 84 (2), 1–8. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/19045 |
Available Versions of this Item
-
Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik. (deposited 14 Nov 2009 23:21)
- Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik. (deposited 08 Dec 2009 05:23) [Currently Displayed]