A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions

Kitchen, John (2003): A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions.

Abstract

This paper examines the relative reliability of alternative measures of employment around business cycle turning points, with particular focus on the behavior of the series at the critical business cycle phase of early expansion phase following a recession. Historical evidence shows that the initial “real time” changes in household employment have provided information for subsequent revisions to the estimates of changes in payroll employment.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: employment; payroll jobs; surveys
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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