Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Construction industry forecasting model

Skribans, Valerijs (2002): Construction industry forecasting model. Published in: RTU Zinātniskie raksti (2002): pp. 72-80.

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In economic literature are shown different methods and instruments of forecasting of separated factors. The most exactly from them take into account economic relations in investigation object. The paper presents the results of research conducted on forecasting in the construction industry. Development of a model for the construction industry is a complicated task. The paper offers a model for forecasting production volumes of the construction industry in Latvian conditions. The construction brunch consists of the extraction, treat (building material), builders and construction customer models. Component parts of the models reflect main factors of production (entrepreneural activity): natural factor (availability of resources), fixed capital (availability of production means), labor factor, working capital (availability of money resources), enterprising factor (entrepreneural spirit and availability of information). The main idea of the paper is that the suggested economic (econometric) model can produce a more accurately forecast than any other statistical, mathematical, and analytical forecasting approaches. The key of the model is theoretical dynamic simulation used for a real-life economic situation.

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