A Semiparametric Panel Model for Unbalanced Data with Application to Climate Change in the United Kingdom

Atak, Alev and Linton, Oliver B. and Xiao, Zhijie (2010): A Semiparametric Panel Model for Unbalanced Data with Application to Climate Change in the United Kingdom. Forthcoming in: Journal of Econometrics

Abstract

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Global warming; Kernel estimation; Semiparametric; Trend analysis
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models ; Quantile Regressions

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