Marzovilla, Olga (2010): Impact of global economic imbalance on migrant workers and economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Forthcoming in: Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica
Download (1MB) | Preview
GCC Countries are characterized by a high incidence of foreigners on both the overall population and the labour force as well as by deep inequalities in social and economic term. These features have influenced the labour market and fuelled mutual tensions and grievances between nationals and foreigners. Consequently, these Countries need to reconcile the demands of economic growth with those of social stability. The latter requires a more equitable allocation of rights and duties along with not only more effective actions in terms of human rights, but also more stable economic dynamics, that prevents the redistributive effects of inflation. The anti-inflationary objective is a priority for Gulf Countries, which entails not only countering the effects, but also removing the causes of inflation. The experience of the new millennium showed that the dollar peg, which characterizes the exchange rate regime of the GCC Countries, was a major vehicle of inflation for Gulf economies and suggests the advisability for its amendment. The alternative proposed in this article is to adopt a basket peg system whereby national currencies could be anchored to a basket of strong currencies that mirror direction and intensity of commercial and financial flows on the international market.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Impact of global economic imbalance on migrant workers and economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council|
|English Title:||Impact of global economic imbalance on migrant workers and economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council|
|Keywords:||GCC countries; exchange rate regimes; basket peg; dollar peg; inflation; migration; labour market|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F22 - International Migration
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange
|Depositing User:||Olga Marzovilla|
|Date Deposited:||03. Aug 2010 09:25|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 18:37|
ABED G., NURI ERBAS S., GUERAMI B. (2003). The GCC Monetary Union: Some Consideration for the Exchange Rate Regime. IMF Working Paper (WP/03/66), April.
ALEISA E., HAMMOUDEH S., YUAN Y. (2008). External and Regional Shocks in the GCC Region: Implications for a Common Exchange Rate Regime. Economic Research Forum, Working Paper n. 426.
AL-QUDSI S., KALOTI A., NUMAN F., OBEID H., MARAR S. (2008). Trade Volatility. The Dollar Peg and Inflation in the GCC Countries: Some Preliminary Research Findings. The Arab Bank Review, n.10, June, pp. 13-39.
BERNANKE B.S. (2005). The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit. Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke at the Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond, Virginia, March 10.
BHIDE A, PHELPS E.S. (2005). A Dynamic Theory of the China-U.S. Trade: Making Sense of the Imbalance. Center of Capitalism and Society, Working Paper n.4, July.
BRISTOL RHIS J. (2010), A Lexicon of Migrant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In: The Middle East Institute, Migration and the Gulf, pp. 24-26, Washington, DC, February.
CADÈNE P., DUMORTIER B. (2008). L’impact politique des flux migratoires dans les États du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe. L’Espace Politique, n.4, pp. 69-82.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY (CIA) (2010). The World Factbook.
CENTRAL INFORMATICS ORGANISATION OF BAHRAIN (CIO) (2007). Statistical Abstract.
COOPER R.N. (2005), Living with Global Imbalances: a Contrarian View. Institute for International Economics, Policy Brief, n. 5, November.
DITO M. E. (2008). GCC Labour Migration Governance, United Nations Expert Group Meeting on International Migration and Development. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Bangkok, Thailand, 20-21 September 2008 (UN/POP/EGM-MIG/2008/7).
DOOLEY M., FOLKERTS-LANDAU D., GARBER P. (2003). An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System, NBER Working Paper n. 9971.
DOOLEY M., FOLKERTS-LANDAU D., GARBER P. (2004). The Revived Bretton Woods System. International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(4), pp. 307-313.
FASANO U., GOYAL R. (2004). Emerging Strains in GCC Labor Markets. IMF Working Paper (WP/04/71), April. GulfTalent. com (2006). Pay, Inflation & Mobility in the Gulf, December.
GulfTalent. com (2008). Gulf Compensation Trends, October.
GulfTalent. com (2009a). Recession and Employment in the Gulf, July.
GulfTalent. com (2009b). Employment and Salary Trends in the Gulf, 2009-2010, December.
Gulf Talent.com (2010). Saudi Arabia and Qatar lead Job Creation in the Gulf, December.
HABIB M. M., STRÁSKÝ J. (2008). Oil Exporters in Search of an External Anchor. European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, N. 958, November.
HASAN M., ALOGEEL H. (2008). Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. IMF Working Paper (WP/08/193), August.
KANDIL M., MORSY H. (2009). Determinant of Inflation in GCC. IMF WorkingPaper (WP/09/82), April.
KAPISZEWSKI A. (2006). Arab Versus Asian Migrant Workers in the GCC Countries. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on International Migration and Development in the Arab Region, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, Beirut, 15-17 May (Un/POP/EGM/2006/02).
KHAN M.S. (2008). The GCC Monetary Union – Choice of Exchange Rate Regime. IMF, August 28.
KOUAOUCI A. (2004), Migrations internationales vers les pays du Golfe: ce que la guerre en 1991 a change. In AIDELF, Les migrations internationales, observation, analyse et perspectives, pp. 573-585, 13° colloque de l’AIDELF, Budapest, 20-24 September.
IMF. Direction of Trade Statistics.
IMF (2009a). Global Financial Stability Report, October.
IMF (2009b). International Financial Statistics Yearbook.
IMF (2010). World Economic Outlook, April.
IMF (2009). Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October.
IMF (2010). Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, May.
INSTITUTE OF BANKING STUDIES OF KUWAIT (Kibs) (2009), Economic and Financial Database for Bankers.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF FINANCE (IIF) (2009). Large Net External Asset Provide a Key Buffer During the Global Crisis, GCC Regional Overview, September 28.
JEN S., BINDELLI L. (2008.). A 70:15:15 Currency Basket Numeraire for the GCC, The Tree of Liberty, January 25.
LABOUR MARKET REGULATORY AUTHORITY (LMRA) (2009). Bahrain Labour Market.
MC KINNON R.I (2005). Trapped by the Dollar Standard. Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 27, pp. 477- 485.
MC KINNON R.I. (2006). Current Account Surplus and Conflicted Virtue in East Asia: China and Japan under the Dollar Standard. HWWI Research Paper, August.
MC KINNON R.I (2007). The Worth of the Dollar. SIEPR Policy Brief, Stanford University, February.
MARZOVILLA O. (2009). L’euro e il dollaro nello squilibrio economico e finanziario globale, Collana di studi Economici e finanziari, Cacucci Editore, Bari 2009.
MARZOVILLA O. (2010). Un regime di cambi per i Paesi del Gulf Cooperation Council: Dollar Peg o Basket Peg?. Economia, impresa e mercati finanziari, 2010/2
MARZOVILLA M., MELE M. (2010). From dollar peg to basket peg: the Experience of Kuwait in View of the GCC Monetary Unification. Global and Local Economic Review, vol.14, n. 1.
MINISTRY OF LABOUR AND BAHRAIN CENTRE FOR STUDIES AND RESEARCH (2004), Labour Force Survey, November.
NAUFUL G., TERMOS A. (2009). The Responsiveness of Remittances to the Oil Price: the Case of the GCC, Institute for Study of Labor (IZA), Discussion Paper No. 4277, July.
QATAR CENTRAL BANK (2008). The Thirty Second Annual Report.
RAZGALLAH B. (2008). The Macroeconomics of Workers’ Remittances in GCC Countries. Economic Research Forum, Working Paper n.410, June.
SAIDI N., SCACCIAVILLANI F., PRASAD A., ALI F. ( 2008). The Exchange Rate Regime of the GCC Monetary Union. Dubai International Financial Centre, Economic Note n. 3.
SAIDI N., F. SCACCIAVILLANI, A. PRASAD, F. ALI (2009). Inflation in the GCC: an Analysis of the Causes and Implications for Monetary Policy. Dubai International Financial Centre, Economic Note n..5.
SAUDI ARABIAN MONETARY AGENCY (SAMA) (2009). 45th Annual Report, August.
STATISTICS AUTHORITY OF QATAR (2008). Labour Force Sample Survey, Results, December 2008.
UAE MINISTRY OF ECONOMY (2007). UAE in Numbers 2007.
UAE MINISTRY OF ECONOMY (2008 a). Statistics Abstract.
UAE MINISTRY OF ECONOMY (2008b). Labour Force Survey 2008, Central Department of Statistics.
U.N. (2009). World Population Prospect: the 2008 Revision Population Database, United Nations Population Division.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY. Foreign Portfolio Holdings of US Securities Historical Data.
U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT (2010). Preliminary Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities at the End – June 2009. February 26.
WORLD BANK (2008). Migration and Remittances, Factbook 2008. March.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM (2009). The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010.
WOERTZ E. (2008). Impact of the US Financial Crisis on GCC Countries. Gulf Research Center, GRC Report, October.
WOERTZ E., PRADHAN S., BIBEROVIC N., KOCH C. (2008). Food Inflation in the GCC Countries. Gulf Research Center, GRC Report, May.
WTO (2009a). International Trade Statistics.
WTO (2009b). Statistics Database, Trade Profiles. October.
XAFA M. (2007). Global Imbalances: Do they Matter?. Cato Journal, Vol.27, n.1, pp. 59-68.