A Bayesian Markov Chain Approach Using Proportions Labour Market Data for Greek Regions

Mamatzakis, E and Christodoulakis, G (2010): A Bayesian Markov Chain Approach Using Proportions Labour Market Data for Greek Regions.

Abstract

This paper focuses on Greek labour market dynamics at a regional base, which comprises of 16 provinces, as defined by NUTS levels 1 and 2 (Eurostat, 2008), using Markov Chains for proportions data for the first time in the literature. We apply a Bayesian approach, which employs a Monte Carlo Integration procedure that uncovers the entire empirical posterior distribution of transition probabilities from full employment to part employment, unemployment and economically unregistered unemployment and vice a versa. Our results show that there are disparities in the transition probabilities across regions, implying that the convergence of the Greek labour market at a regional base is far from being considered as completed. However, some common patterns are observed as regions in the south of the country exhibit similar transition probabilities between different states of the labour market.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Greek Regions, Employment, Unemployment, Markov Chains.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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