Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis

Ari, Ali and Dagtekin, Rustem (2007): Early Warning Signals of the 2000/2001 Turkish Financial Crisis. Published in: International Journal of Emerging and Transition Economies , Vol. 1, No. 2 (2008): pp. 191-218.


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The 2000/2001 Turkish crisis was one of the most impressive crises that hit the emerging market economies in the late 90s. The characteristic of this crisis is not only its violence but also its suddenness. We observe two rapid crisis sequences which are different from recent financial crisis examples. The analysis of the Turkish crisis in the literature generally presents an analytical aspect that only relates the stylized facts of the crisis omitting a strong econometric basis. This paper goes further: it presents two models (OLS and Logit) which will test the implication level of the macroeconomic and financial variables in the outbreak of the crisis.

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