Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method

Rao, B. Bhaskara and Paradiso, Antonio (2011): Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method.

Abstract

This paper distinguishes between the long run and short run Phillips curve (PC) and uses the micro theory based specification, with forward looking expectations, for the long run PC. The long run and the implied short run dynamic equations are estimated in one step with the general to specific method (GETS). Our approach has two distinct advantages. Firstly, classical estimation methods can be used, irrespective of the stationarity properties of the variables. Secondly, instead of arbitrarily adding the lagged inflation rate to the theory based long run PC to capture persistence in inflation, our approach shows that persistence effects can also be captured through the dynamic adjustment equations. This has an added advantage because it offers a more flexible lag structure to estimate dynamic adjustments compared to the partial adjustment process in the hybrid NKPC.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: US New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Forward looking expectations, Alternative measures of the Driving Forces, GETS
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925 > B22 - Macroeconomics; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

References

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