Mapa, Dennis S. and Bersales, Lisa Grace S. and Albis, Manuel Leonard F. and Daquis, John Carlo P. (2011): Determinants of Poverty in Elderly-Headed Households in the Philippines.
Download (807kB) | Preview
This paper looks at the impact of population dynamics on poverty in elderly-headed households in the Philippines using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) from 2000 to 2006. The population of the elderly, or those 60 years and above, has increased from 3.2 million in 1990 to 4.6 million in 2000. This group is growing at a rate of 3.6% per annum and estimated to reach 7 million in 2010. Data from the FIES shows that the percentage of the elderly who are poor is increasing since 2003. Moreover, the percentage of elderly-headed household belonging to the poorest 10% of all households has been on the rise since 1997. An econometric model based on the logistic regression shows that the presence of a young dependent (aged 14 years old or below) increases the probability that the elderly-headed household will become poor by about 9 percentage points, controlling for other factors such as income of the household, education, age and gender of the household head, income transfer from abroad and regional-specific characteristics. The results of the econometric model suggest that the high proportion of young dependents create negative effects on the welfare of the elderly-headed household by increasing the probability of that household being poor. From the point of view of policy, addressing the alarming poverty incidence in the country must include measures that will manage the country’s bourgeoning population and bring down the fertility rate to a level that is conducive to higher income growth.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Determinants of Poverty in Elderly-Headed Households in the Philippines|
|Keywords:||elderly, population dynamics, poverty|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J14 - Economics of the Elderly ; Economics of the Handicapped ; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
|Depositing User:||Dennis S. Mapa|
|Date Deposited:||03. Feb 2011 20:01|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 13:40|
Alonzo, Ruperto P., et. al. (2004), “Population and Poverty: The Real Score.” Discussion Paper 0415, School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman, December 2004.
Balisacan, Arsenio M. (2009) “Pathways Out of Rural Poverty: Is Agrarian Reform Passé?” A paper presented at the 6th Ayala Corporation-UPSE Economic Forum, at the University of the Philippines School of Economics Auditorium, July 10, 2009.
Bartus, Tamas (2005), “Estimation of marginal eﬀects using margeﬀ” The Stata Journal, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 309-329.
Coale, A.J. and E.M.Hoover (1956). Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-Income Countries. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Concepcion, Mercedes B. (2004), “Fertility and Poverty Linkages: Evidence from the 2003 National Demographic and Health Survey,” Paper presented at the 2003 NDHS Data Dissemination Forum, Dusit Hotel Nikko, Makati (8 November).
Cruz, Christian Joy P. and Cruz, Grace T. (2010). “Revisiting Philippine Population Aging…is 60 the new 70?” A paper presented at the Philippine Population Association (PPA) Annual Scientific Conference on February 4 to 5, 2010 at the Heritage Hotel, Pasay City.
Magsino, Cecilio L. (2010), “An optimistic look at the population issue,” Philippine Daily Inquirer, October 20, 2010 (under letter to the editor).
Mapa, Dennis S. (2009), “Young Population Matters: More is not Necessarily Merrier”.Policy Brief 2009-01, Philippine Center for Population and Development (PCPD), Makati City.
Mapa, Dennis. S. and Arsenio M. Balisacan (2004).“Quantifying the Impact of Population on Economic Growth and Poverty: The Philippines in an East Asian Context.” In: Population and Development in the Philippines: The Ties That Bind (Ed Sevilla, L.A.). AIM Policy Center, Makati City.
Mapa, Dennis S., Arsenio M. Balisacan, Kristine Joy S. Briones (2006), “Robust Determinants of Income Growth in the Philippines.” Philippine Journal of Development (PJD), Volume XXXIII, Nos. 1-2, pp. 1-32.
Mapa, Dennis S., Arsenio M. Balisacan and Jose Rowell T. Corpuz (2010), “Population Management should be mainstreamed in the Philippine Development Agenda”, Policy Brief 2010-01, Philippine Center for Population and Development (PCPD), Makati City.
Mapa, Dennis S. and Lisa Grace S. Bersales (2008), “Population Dynamics and Household Saving: Evidence from the Philippines.” The Philippine Statistician, Vol .57, Nos. 1-4, pp. 1-27.
Mapa, Dennis S., Manilyn L. Davila and Manuel Leonard F. Albis (2010), “Getting Old before Getting Rich: An Analysis of the Economic State of the Elderly in the Philippines.” A paper presented at the Philippine Population Association (PPA) Annual Scientific Conference on February 4 to 5, 2010 at the Heritage Hotel, Pasay City.
Mason, Andrew (2007), “Demographic Dividends: The Past, the Present and the Future.” In Mason, A. and Yamaguchi, Mitoshi (eds.). Population Change, Labor Markets and Sustainable Growth: Towards a New Economic Paradigm. ELSEVIER.
Mason, Andrew and Ronald Lee (2006). “Reform and Support systems for the elderly in developing countries: Capturing the second demographic dividend.” GENUS 62(2): 11-35.
Montalvan, Antonio J. II (2008), “Edcel’s Winter” Philippine Daily Inquirer, October 06, 2008 (under the column Kris-Crossing Mindanao).
National Statistics Office (NSO), Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) for years 2000, 2003 and 2006.
Social Weather Stations (2011), “Fourth Quarter 2010 Social Weather Survey: Hunger up to 18.1% of families” SWS Media Release, January 13, 2011, Website, www.sws.org.ph
Villegas, Bernardo M. (2010), “Population Statistics are being doctored,” Manila Bulletin, September 19, 2010 (under Business and Society).
World Development Indicators, World Databank http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do