Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2005-2007

Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Tinajero, Roberto (2005): Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2005-2007. Published in: Business Report SR05-2 No. 2 (25 November 2005): pp. 1-21.

Abstract

Economic conditions remain healthy in the borderplex. That assessment is reflected by growth in output, business receipts, and personal incomes. Greater numbers of jobs allow the El Paso unemployment rate to trend downward as the local labor market strengthens. Although consumer indebtedness remains high, improved income and jobs performance generate additional retail activity, with total sales surpassing $8.3 billion in 2006. Expansion at Fort Bliss causes strong levels of positive net migration and accelerated population growth. That translates into greater volumes of residential construction in all years of the forecast. Because of the decision to allow real water rates to erode for a year or more, aggregate water consumption in El Paso is expected to increase following four consecutive years of declines. The outlooks for Las Cruces, Ciudad Juarez, and Chihuahua City are also relatively favorable.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Econometric Forecast; Mexico Border Region
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models

References

BEA, 2005, State and Local Area Personal Income, Washington, DC: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

INEGI, 2005, Anuario Estadistico de los Estados unidos Mexicanos, Mexico, DF: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia.