Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2006 – 2008

Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Kelley, Brian W. (2006): Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2006 – 2008. Published in: Business Report SR06-2 No. 2 (31 October 2006): pp. 1-23.

Abstract

A variety of measures such as real output, retail receipts, and personal incomes show how the borderplex economy continues to expand (Table 1). Although employment growth is expected to subside, local labor market strength will be sufficiently robust to hold the El Paso unemployment rate well below its 32-year average of greater than 10 percent. Similarly, even though residential construction activity is expected to moderate slightly, overall housing activity is projected to remain high by historical standards. Expansion at Fort Bliss is the source for much of the heightened business activity as the arrivals of new troops translate into greater demand for housing, retail, and other services. By 2008, more than 13 thousand businesses are expected to be registered in El Paso. Per capita personal income is projected to exceed $26,200 that year. Additional detail obtained from simulations of the UTEP Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model is presented below for El Paso, Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua City, and Las Cruces.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: U.S. - Mexico Border Region; Econometric Forecasts
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models ; Other Models

References

BEA, 2006, State and Local Area Personal Income, Washington, DC: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

INEGI, 2006, Anuario Estadistico de los Estados unidos Mexicanos, Mexico, DF: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia.