Comment la dernière crise financière a relancé le débat relatif à l'arrimage du fcfa à l'euro

Kuikeu, Oscar (2011): Comment la dernière crise financière a relancé le débat relatif à l'arrimage du fcfa à l'euro.

Abstract

En raison des fluctuations de parité observées lors de la crise financière de 2008, il est raisonnable de penser que cette dernière, c’est-à-dire, la dite crise financière de 2008, a relancé le débat relatif à l’arrimage du franc cfa à l’euro, c’est pourquoi, en guise de contribution à ce débat, cet ouvrage s’organise autour des quatre chapitres suivants:

Au chapitre 1, deux questions : premièrement, faut-il dévaluer le franc cfa une fois encore ? Ensuite, la zone franc dispose de quels atouts pour être, en Afrique Sub-Saharienne (ASS), un exemple au sujet de la lutte contre l’inflation ? Ceci dit, c’est en raison de la dernière crise financière que ces deux interrogations seront l’objet de cette contribution.

Au chapitre 2, l’objet est de montrer l’importance des tests économétriques de stabilité des paramètres d’un modèle économique, à cet effet, co me la critique dite de Lucas (Lucas(1976)) est une description du comportement qu’ont les agents économiques, alors que les paramètres d’un modèle économique correspondent aussi à une description du comportement des agents économiques, nous proposons d’illustrer la critique dite de Lucas, afin de révéler, l’objectif de cette contribution, toute l’importance des tests économétriques de stabilité des paramètres d’un modèle économique.

Au chapitre 3, selon la méthodologie développée par Baffes, Elbadawi et O’Connel (1999), nous évaluons, entre 1980 et 2001, le taux de change réel d’équilibre de l’économie gabonaise, puis, nous en déduisons le mésalignement, c’est-à-dire, les phases de sur/sous-évaluation, du taux de change réel de la dite économie ; d’une manière générale, d’après les résultats obtenus, nous acceptons l’idée, assez répandue au sein de la littérature, d’un franc cfa surévalué avant la dévaluation du franc cfa de janvier 1994.

Au chapitre 4, nous évaluons, à partir d’expériences Monte Carlo, les propriétés, à distance finie,lorsque N<T, d’estimateurs usuels du modèle dynamique en données de panel ; comme la double dimension des données en panel affecte les propriétés statistiques des estimateurs,c’est-à- dire, l’efficacité ou biais et la précision ou variance des estimateurs, l’on s’est intéressé, par rapport à l’étude des propriétés à distance finie, à la détermination des limites d’échantillon fini, c’est-à-dire, le nombre d’individus N et le nombre d’observations T, auxquelles les estimateurs présentent les propriétés, convenables de l’horizon asymptotique, d’absence de biais et de variance minimale : d’une manière générale, suite aux simulations, les résultats obtenus révèlent qu’il convient d’avoir T≥30 afin d’user de l’estimateur, intra-individuel, qui est sans biais etle plus précis lorsque N<T.

Au chapitre 5, l’objectif est d’identifier la stratégie, de lutte contre l’inflation, suivie par la BEAC, dans une période de réapparition de l’inflation, à la suite de l’ajustement de la parité du fcfa en janvier 1994 et de vérifier, ainsi, l’idée, assez répandue au sein de la littérature, d’une stratégie de lutte contre l’inflation ou politique monétaire orientée vers la maîtrise de l’inflation à la suite de l’ajustement de la parité du fcfa en janvier 1994.

Au chapitre 6, puisque, nous pouvons montrer que l’inflation peut-être persistante même si tous les agents sont rationnels, alors que Gali et Gertler (1999) montrent que l’inflation est persistante parce qu’il y a des agents irrationnels, l’objet de cette contribution est d’abord de proposer une nouvelle compréhension de l’explication donnée par Gali et Gertler (1999) à la persistance de l’inflation, puis, après avoir étudié comment mesurer le degré de persistance de l’inflation (c’est-à-dire, en d’autres termes, le nombre de périodes nécessaires pour que l’inflation cesse d’augmenter ou de diminuer), de présenter le résultat de la mesure du degré de persistance de l’inflation de la zone CEMAC.

Au chapitre 7, l’objet principal est de proposer une nouvelle explication, parmi celles qui existent déjà et qui se distingue de ces dernières, à propos du ralentissement de la performance économique entraîné par les distorsions du taux de change réel (les phases d’appréciation/dépréciation du taux de change réel) ; cette nouvelle explication se distingue de celles qui existent déjà, en raison du fait qu’elle va au-delà de l’analyse qui considère les phases d’appréciation (respectivement dépréciation) du taux de change réel comme un signe d’une dégradation (respectivement amélioration) de la compétitivité-prix externe de l’économie nationale par rapport à l’étranger : en effet, cette nouvelle explication considère les phases d’appréciation (respectivement dépréciation) du taux de change réel comme un signe d’existence (respectivement d’absence) d’un ensemble de facteurs qui freinent la performance économique. Ensuite, à l’aide de cette nouvelle explication, on s’assurera qu’on peut montrer que les distorsions du taux de change réel ralentissent effectivement la performance économique ; à cet effet, on s’intéressera à l’économie camerounaise, une économie dont la monnaie a été dévaluée alors qu’elle était confrontée à un ralentissement de sa performance économique.

Au chapitre 8, l’objet est d’expliquer comment savoir si les écarts de richesse, c’est-à-dire, en d’autres termes, les écarts de niveau de vie, se réduisent ou diminuent ou disparaissent entre économies pauvres et économies riches et si, par conséquent, les économies pauvres rattrapent ou pas le niveau de richesse des économies riches.

Oscar KUIKEU est docteur ès sciences économiques, avec la mention Très Honorable, de l’Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour (FRANCE).

Due to fluctuations of parity observed during the recent financial crisis in 2008, it is reasonable to assume that it have revived the debate on the parity between fcfa and euro, then, for this purpose, this book is organized around the following four chapters:

In Chapter 1, two questions: it is necessary to devalue the cfa franc once again ? The next, what have the franc zone in order to be, in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an example to follow about the fight against inflation? These things said, it is because of the recent financial crisis that these two questions are the subject of this contribution.

In Chapter 2, the aim is to show the importance of econometric tests of parameters stability of an economic model, for this purpose, because the so-called Lucas critique (Lucas (1976)) is a description of the behavior of the economic agents, while the parameters an economic model also correspond to a description of the behavior of economic agents, we propose to illustrate the so-called Lucas critique in order to reveal, the objective of this contribution, the importance of econometric tests of parameter stability of a model.

In Chapter 3, using the methodology developed by Baffes, Elbadawi and O'Connell (1999), we estimate, between 1980 and 2001 the real exchange rate equilibrium of the Gabonese economy and the misalignment of this economy, in general, according to the results, we accept the idea, well established in the literature, of an overvalued cfa franc before the period that have preceeded the cfa franc devaluation in January 1994.

In Chapter 4, we estimate, based on Monte Carlo experiments, the finite sample properties, when N <T, of usual estimators of the dynamic panel data model, indeed, because the double dimension of panel data affects the statistical properties of estimators, in other words, the efficiency or variance and accuracy or bias of estimators, we became interested by determining the limits of finite sample, in other words, the number of individuals N and the number of observations T at wchich the estimators have the properties, corresponding to the asymptotic horizon, of no bias and minimum variance : in general, following simulations, the results reveal that we should have T ≥ 30 in order to use the estimator, intra-individual, which is unbiased and the more precise when N <T.

In Chapter 5, the aim is to describe the strategy, of fighting against inflation, followed by BEAC, in a period of resurgence of inflation, after the the cfa franc devaluation in january 1994 and, so, check, the idea, well established in the literature, of a fighting against inflation plan's or monetary policy oriented towards the control of inflation after the the cfa franc devaluation in january 1994.

In Chapter 6, because, we can show that, inflation may be persistent even if all agents are rational, while Gali and Gertler (1999) show that inflation is persistent because there are irrational agents, the purpose of this contribution is first to offer a new understanding of the explanation given by Gali and Gertler (1999) to the persistence of inflation and, after studying how to measure the degree of inflation persistence, in other words, the number of periods required for inflation to not continue to increase or to decrease), we will presented the result, concerning the measure of the degree of inflation persistence, for the CEMAC.

In Chapter 7, the main purpose is to provide an new explanation, among those that already exist and which differs of these, about the decrease of economic growth caused by real exchange rate misalignment, in other words, the phases of appreciation and depreciation of the real exchange rate, this new explanation differs from existing ones, due to the fact that it goes beyond the analysis which considers the phases of appreciation (respectively, depreciation) of the real exchange rate as a sign of a deterioration (respectively, improvement) of the external price competitiveness of the national economy compared to the abroad, indeed, this new explanation considers the phases of appreciation (respectively, depreciation) of the real exchange rate as a sign of existence (respectively, absence) of a set of factors that decrease the economic growth. Then, using this new explanation, we will show that, effectively, the real exchange rate misalignment decreases the economic growth and in order to achieve this goal, we will use data of an economy, the cameroonian economy, who have changed the parity of his currency when it was facing a decrease in its economic growth.

In chapter 8, the aim is to know if the disparities in the standard of living decrease between less developed and developed economies, and, therefore, if less developed economies can catch up the standard of living of rich ones

Oscar KUIKEU is Doctor in Economics from the University of Pau (FRANCE)

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: How the recent financial crisis have revived the debate on the parity between fcfa and euro
• Language: French
• Keywords: C22, E31
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

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