Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Least squares estimation of a shift in linear processes

Bai, Jushan (1993): Least squares estimation of a shift in linear processes. Published in: Journal of Time Series Analysis , Vol. 15, No. 5 (September 1994): pp. 453-472.


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This paper considers a mean shift with an unknown shift point in a linear process and estimates the unknown shift point (change point) by the method of least squares. Pre-shift and post-shift means are estimated concurrently with the change point. The consistency and the rate of convergence for the estimated change point are established. The asymptotic distribution for the change point estimator is obtained when the magnitude of shift is small. It is shown that serial correlation affects the variance of the change point estimator via the sum of the coefficients (impulses) of the linear process. When the underlying process is an ARMA, a mean shift causes overestimation of its order. A simple procedure is suggested to mitigate the bias in order estimation.

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