Waheed, Muhammad (2010): Foreign exchange intervention and sterilization: an investigation of State Bank of Pakistan’s Reaction Function.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_33161.pdf Download (572kB) | Preview |
Abstract
We looked into Pakistan’s central bank response to the foreign exchange inflows, for the period from 2001:01 to 2007:06, to strike a balance between competing goals of internal and external equilibriums to draw lessons for its conduct going forward. Using a reaction function we tested the hypothesis that SBP fully sterilized its foreign exchange interventions. The results indicated that for this period, SBP only partially neutralized its foreign exchange interventions. In addition, we also found that changes in SBP’s domestic credit were counter cyclical as it had negative relation with the output gap. However, the changes in domestic credit were found to have positive relation with changes in inflation. This probably resulted from too much weight assigned to growth objective in the back drop of recession and low inflation environment at the start of 2001. It was also found that the SBP also change its domestic credit systematically to reduce interest rate variability at the short end.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Foreign exchange intervention and sterilization: an investigation of State Bank of Pakistan’s Reaction Function |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Foreign Exchange, Inflows, Sterilization, State Bank of Pakistan, Reaction Function |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy |
Item ID: | 33161 |
Depositing User: | Muhammad Waheed |
Date Deposited: | 05 Sep 2011 11:25 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 09:39 |
References: | Aizenman, J and R. Glick (2008), “Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration” NBER Working Paper 13902 Altinkemer, M. (1997), “Capital Flows and Effects on Monetary Policy”, Central Bank of Republic of Turkey. Annual Report on Pakistan Economy, various issues, State Bank of Pakistan. Argy, V. and P. Kouri (1972), “Sterilization Policies and the Volatility of International Reserves” IMF Research Department Argy, V. E. and G. L. Murray (1985): “Effects of Sterilizing a Balance of Payments Surplus on Domestic Yields -A Formal Analysis”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, pp 223-36. Blejer, M. I. and L. Leiderman (1981), “A Monetary Approach to Crawling Peg System: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Political Economy, 89. Calvijo, S. (1986), “ International Reserves and Foreign Exchange Black-market Under Crawling-peg: Theoretical and Empirical Issues” NBER Working Paper no 8, Special Series, Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Calvo, G. A. (1991): “The Perils of Sterilization”, IMF Staff Papers, 38 (4), pp 921-26. Calvo, G. A., L. Leiderman and C. M. Reinhart (1993): “Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors”, IMF Staff Papers, 40 (1), pp 108-51. Cavoli, T. and R. Rajan, (2005), “What Explains the Interest Premium Puzzle in Asia in the 1990s: Is Monetary Sterilization the Answer?”. mimeo, January Celasun, O., Denizer, C., and D. He, (1999), "Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Management, and the Financial System: The Turkish case, 1989-97", World Bank Working Paper Cukierman, Alex (2002), “Are contemporary central banks transparent about economic models and objectives and what difference does it make?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. Pages: 15-36 Dornbusch, R. (1976), “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Journal of Political Economy 84, 1161-1176. Emir O.Y, A. Karasoy and K. Kunter (2000),” Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey” Paper presented in the conference titled “Banking, Financial Markets and The Economies of the Middle East and North Africa” during May 25-27, 2000 in Beirut. Frankel, J. A. (1994): “Sterilization of Monetary Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?”, Working paper, no 94/159, International Monetary Fund. Washington D.C. Fry, M., Lilien, D., M., Wadhwa. (1991), “Economic Success in Pacific Asia: Behavior or Policy?” CCBS Bank of England, Seminar in 9-20 February 1998 Hodrick, Robert, and Edward C. Prescott (1997), "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29 (1), 1–16. Holub, T (2004): “Foreign Exchange Intervention under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience”, CNB internal research and policy note, Czech National Bank (January). Janjua, M.A (2004), “History of the State Bank of Pakistan 1988-2003,” State Bank of Pakistan Kamas, L., (1986), “The Balance of Payments Offset to Monetary Policy: Monetarist, Portfolio Balance, and Keynesian Estimates for Mexico and Venezuela” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Nov., 1986), pp. 467-481 Kim K. (1991), “A Study on the Effectiveness of the Sterilization Policy in Open Economy: The Case Of Korea.” Studies in Financial and Monetary Economics, Vol. 28 Kouri, P J K and M G Porter (1974): “International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium”, Journal of Political Economy (May/June) 82, pp 443-67. Leiderman, L. (1984) “On the Monetary-Macro Dynamics of Colombia and Mexico”, Journal of Development Economics 14, 183-201. Malik, W. S and A. M. Ahmed (2007), “Taylor Rule and Macroeconomic Performance: A case of Pakistan” Pakistan Development Review, Volume 49 (2010) Pages 37-56 Malik, W. S and A. M. Ahmed (2007), “Monetary Policy Objectives: An Empirical Investigation” Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Working Paper 35. McCallum B. T. and E. Nelson, (1999), “An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21 (3, 1), pp. 296-316. Miller C.N. and S.S. Askin (1976)” Monetary Policy and the Balance of Payment in Brazil and Chile” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 8, No.2, pp 227-238. Mohanty and Turner (2005), “Intervention: what are the domestic consequences?” BIS Paper No. 24, Bank of International Settlement. Mundell, R A (1968), “International Economics (Capital Mobility And Stabilization Policy Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates), Macmillan. Obstfeld M. and K. S. Rogoff (1996), “Foundations of International Macroeconomics” The MIT Press Obstfeld, M.,(1982a) “Can We Sterilize? Theory and Evidence” American Economic Review, Vol. 72, No. 2, Papers and proceedings of the Ninety- Forth Annual Meeting of the American Economic association (May 1982), pp 45-50. Obstfeld, M.,(1982b), ”Exchange Rates, Inflation, and the Sterilization Problem: Germany, 1975-1981” NBER working paper 963 Patnaik I. (2004), “India’s Experience with the Implementation of a Pegged Exchange Rate” National Council of Applied Economics Research, India Qayyum A. and M.A. Khan (2003), “Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilization in Pakistan” The Pakistan Development Review 42:4 Part II, pp 975-985. Reinhart, C M and V Reinhart (1999): “Some Lessons for Policy Makers Who Deal with the Mixed Blessing of Capital Inflows”, in M. Kahler (eds), Capital flows and financial crises, pp 93-127. Reisen, H (1993): “Capital Flows and Their Effect on the Monetary Base”, Cepal Review, 51 (December), pp 113-22. Renhack, R. and G. Mondino, (1988), "Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy in Colombia", IMF Working Paper, WP/88/77 Sargent, Thomas J. and N. Wallace, (1976), "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183 Sarno, L. and M. P. Taylor (2001), “Official Intervention in Foreign Exchange Market: Is it Effective and, If so, How Does It Works?” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol 33(3) 839-868. Svensson, L. E. O. (1996), “Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets” National Bureau of Economics Research, Working paper 5797. Savvides, A., (1998), "Inflation and Monetary Policy in Selected West and Central African Countries", World Development, Vol. 26, No. 5, pp.809-827 Sheehey, E.J.(1980) “Monetary Policy and the Balance Of Payment in Brazil and Chile: Comment” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 12, No.3, pp 547-549. Siklos P.L., (2000), “Capital Flows in a Transition Economy and the Sterilization Dilemma: The Hungarian Experience , 1992-97.” Journal of Policy Reform, Vol. 3 pp 413-38. Truman, E M (2003): “The Limits of Exchange Market Intervention”, in C F Bergsten and J Williamson (eds), Dollar overvaluation and the world economy, Institute for International Economics, pp 247-65. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/33161 |