A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle

CRAIGWELL, ROLAND and MAURIN, ALAIN (2007): A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle. Published in: Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies , Vol. 32, No. 1 (2007): pp. 21-52.

Abstract

This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974-2003 using the Bry and Boschan algorithm. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of the individual sectors that comprises real output. The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is acyclical.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Barbados; Gross Domestic Product, Business Cycle
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

References

Abad A., Cristobal A., Quilis E. (2000), Economic fluctuations, turning points and cyclical classification, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Madrid, Report.

Allard P. (1994), “Le repérage des Cycles du PIB en France depuis l’après guerre, Economie et Prévision”, No. 112, pp. 19-34.

Artis, M., Kontolemis, Z. and Osborn, D. (1997), “Classical Business Cycles for G-7 and European Countries”, Journal of Business, Vol. 70, pp. 249-279.

Artis, M., Marcellino, M. and Proiette, T. (2004), “Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, Vol. 6, pp. 537-565.

Bodart, V., Kholodilin, K.A. and Shadman-Mehta, F. (2003), “Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle”, Universite Catholique du Louvain, IRES, Working Papers.

Bruno, G., and Otranto, E. (2003), “Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures”, Istituto di Studi ed Analisi Economica, ISAE, Working Papers.

Bry, G. and Boschan, C. (1971), Cyclical analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programmes, New York, NBER.

Burns, A and Mitchell, W. (1946), Measuring Business Cycles, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Craigwell, R. and Maurin, A. (2002), "Production and Unemployment Cycles in the Caribbean: The Case of Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago", Central Bank of Barbados, Working paper.

Craigwell, R., and Maurin, A. (2004), “Stylised Facts of the GDP Cycles in Barbados”, Central Bank of Barbados, mimeo, November.

Craigwell, R., and Maurin, A. (2005), “A Comparative Analysis of the Barbados and United States Business Cycles ”, Central Bank of Barbados, mimeo, July.

Fournier J-Y. (2000), Extraction du cycle des affaires : la méthode de Baxter et King, Economie et Prévision, No 146, 2000-5.

Fiorentini G., Planas C. (2003), Tools and practices for business cycle analysis in European Union, Busy Programme User-Manual, report for IST-12654 project BUSY, Joint Research Centre of EC, Ispra, Italy.

Grégroir S., Laroque G. (1992), La place des stocks dans les fluctuations conjoncturelles, Annales d’Economie et de Statistique, No 28, Octobre-Decembre.

Hamilton J.D. (1994), Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press New Jersey.

Harding, D. and Pagan, A. (2001), “Extracting, Analyzing and Using Cyclical Information”, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research, mimeo.

Harding, D. and Pagan, A. (2002a), “Dissecting the Cycle: a Methodological Investigation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 49, pp. 365-381. Harding, D. and Pagan, A. (2002b), “A Comparison of Two Business Cycle Dating Methods”, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Vol. 27, pp. 1681-1690.

Harding, D. and Pagan, A. (2004), “A Suggested Framework for Classifying the Modes of Cycle Research”, The Australian National University, CAMA Working Paper.

Lewis, D. (1997), “A Quarterly Real GDP Series for Barbados, 1974-1995: A Sectoral Approach”, Central Bank of Barbados Economic Review, No. 1, Vol. XXIV, 17-56.

Rand J. and Tarp, F. (2002), “Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?”,World Development, Vol.30 No12, pp.2071-2088.