Arguments contre la zone franc

Kuikeu, Oscar (2011): Arguments contre la zone franc.

Abstract

As inflation looks forever transactions, while, under the assumption of closed economy and Okun's law, we can consider that the ultimate goal of economic policy is to increase economic growth, about the debate on the suitable foreign exchange regime for Sub-Saharan African economies in the Cfa franc zone, we will examine in CEMAC, as representative of the Cfa franc zone, first, the teaching from the study of inflation (chapter 1 and chapter 2), secondly, the lessons from the study of economic growth (chapter 3 and chapter 4): in Chapter 1, the aim is to describe the strategy, of fighting against inflation, followed by BEAC, in a period of resurgence of inflation, after the devaluation of the Cfa franc in January 1994 and to check the idea, well established in the literature, of a monetary policy oriented toward the controlling inflation after the devaluation of the Cfa franc in January 1994, in Chapter 2, following Gali and Gertler (1999), we will examine the parameters associated to the neo-keynesian phillips curve of the CEMAC, because, those parameters describe the behavior of agents against price, we will have we will have some teachings about the inflation persistance in CEMAC, in Chapter 3, the aim is to study the effect on the cameroonian's economic growth of its real exchange rate misalignment, otherwise, episodes of appreciation or depreciation of the real exchange rate, because, we can show that the real exchange rate misalignment is an indicator of the stability or the instability of the macroeconomic framework, we will have some teachings about the sensibility of the cameroonian economy to the macroeconomic framework, in Chapter 4, the aim is to study the standard of living convergence.

Oscar KUIKEU is Doctor in economics from the University of Pau (FRANCE).

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Against the cfa franc zone
• Language: French
• Keywords: C22, E31
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

References

Andrews, D.W.K. 1993. “Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point”, Econometrica, 61(4), pp. 821 – 856.

Andrews, D.W.K. 2003. “Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point: A corrigendum”, Econometrica, 71(1), pp. 395 – 397.

Andrews, D.W.K. et Fair, R.C. 1988. “Inference in nonlinear econometric models with structural change”, Review of Economic Studies, 55(4), pp. 615–640.

Andrews, D.W.K. et Ploberger, W. 1994. “Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative”, Econometrica, 62(6), pp. 1383–1414.

Baffes, J., Elbadawi, I., O’Connel, S. (1999) “Single equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate”, in Hinkle, L. et Montiel, P. (eds), Exchange rate misalignment :Concepts ad measurement for developing countries. World Bank Research Publication.

Ball, L. 1994a. “Credible disinflation with staggered price setting”, American Economic Review, 84(1), pp. 282– 289.

Ball, L. 1994b. “What determines the sacrifice ratio”, in Mankiw, N.G. (eds), Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Ball, Mankiw et Romer 1988. “The new keynesian economics and the output-inflation trade-off”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1988(1), pp. 1–82.

Barro, R. (2000) Les facteurs de la croissance économique : Une analyse transversale par pays, Economica, Paris.

Barro, R.J. 1991. “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 106, N°2, pp. 407-443.

Barro, R. et Gordon, D. 1983. « Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy », Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 12, N° 1, pp. 101 – 121.

Barro, R. J. et Sala – i – Martin, X. 1990. “Economic growth and convergence across the united states”, NBER Working paper, N° 3419.

Barro, R.J. et Sala – i – Martin, X. 1992. “Convergence”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100, N° 2, pp. 223-251.

Barro R.J. et Sala – i – Martin, X. 1995. Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, New York.

Bhargava, A. 1986. « On the theory of testing for Unit Roots in observed times series », Review of Economics Studies, vol. 53, N° 3, pp. 369 – 384.

Bouoiyour, J. et Kuikeu, O. 2007. « Pertinence de la dévaluation du fcfa de janvier 1994 : une évaluation par le taux de change réel d’équilibre – cas de l’économie camerounaise – », MPRA Paper N° 31357.

Burnside, C. and Dollar, D. (2000) “Aid, policies and growth”, American Economic Review, vol. 90, N° 4, pp. 847 – 868.

Calvo, G.A. 1978. « On the time consistency of optimal policy in a monetary economy », Econometrica, vol. 46, N° 6, pp. 1411 – 1428.

Calvo, G.A. 1983. “Staggered prices in a utility maximising framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), pp. 383–398.

Chow, G.C. 1960. “Tests of equality between two sets of coefficients in two linear regressions”, Econometrica, vol 38(2), pp. 591–605.

Carrère, E. et Jaillet, P. 2004. « La Zone franc, une zone monétaire robuste en voie d’intégration économique », Revue d’Economie Financière, N° 75.

Clarida, R., Gali, J. et Gertler, M. 1998. « Monetary policy rules in practice : some international evidence », European Economic Review, vol. 42, N° 6, pp. 1661 – 1707.

Clarida, R., Gali, J. et Gertler, M. 1999. « The science of monetary policy : a new keynesian perspective », Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 37, N° 4, pp. 1661 – 1707.

Clarida, R., Gali J. et Gertler, M. 2000. « Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability : evidence and theory », Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 115, N° 1, pp. 147 – 180.

Campos, J., Ericsson, N.R. and Hendry, D.F. (1996) “Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 70, N° 1, pp. 187 – 220.

Clark, P. and MacDonald, R. (1998) “Exchange rate and economic fundamentals – A methodological comparison of BEERs and FEERs”, IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.

Devarajan, S. et de Melo, J. 1990. “Menbership in the CFA Zone Odyssean Journey or Trojan Horse ?”, Policy, research and External Affairs WPS 482, World Bank.

Devarajan, S. et Rodrik, D. 1991. “Do the benefits of fixed exchange rates outweigh their costs ? The franc zone in Africa”, Policy, research and External Affairs WPS 777, World Bank.

Devarajan, S. et Walton, M. 1994. “Preserving the CFA Zone : macroeconomic coordination after the devaluation”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 1(1316).

Devarajan, S. 1997. “Real exchange rate misalignment in the CFA zone”, Journal of African Economies, vol. 6, N° 3, pp. 35 – 53.

Devarajan, S., Lewis, J. and Robinson, S. 1993. “External shocks, Purchasing Power Parity and the equilibrium real exchange rate”, World Bank Economic Review, vol. 7, N° 7, pp. 45 – 63.

Edwards, S. (1989) Real exchange rates, Devaluation and adjustment : Exchange rate policy in developing countries, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachussetts.

Elbadawi, I. (1994) “Estimating long – run equilibrium real exchange rates”, in Williamson, J. (eds), Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.

Elbadawi, I. et Majd, N. 1992. “Fixed parity of the exchange rate and economic performance in the cfa zone”, Policy Research WPS 830, World Bank.

Elbadawi, I. and Soto, R. (1997) “Real exchange rates and macroeconomic adjustment in Sub – Saharan Africa and other developing countries”, Journal of African Economies, vol. 6, N° 3, pp. 1 – 56.

Engle, R.F., Hendry, D. and Richard, J-F (1983) Exogeneity, Econometrica, vol 51, N° 2, pp. 277 – 304. Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W. (1987) “Cointegration and error correction : Representation, estimating and testing”, Econometrica, vol. 55, pp. 251 – 276.

Ericsson, N.R., et Irons, J.S. 1995. “The Lucas Critique in practice : Theory without measurement”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Paper N°506.

Estrella, A., et Fuhrer, J.C. 1999. “Are deep parameters stable? The Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis”, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Working Paper 99-04.

Favero, C. et Hendry, D. 1992. “Testing the Lucas Critique: A Review”, Econometric Reviews, 11(3), pp. 265–306.

Fischer, S. 1977. “Long term contracts, Rational Expectations, and the optimal money supply rule”, Journal of Political Economy, 85(1), pp. 191 – 205.

Fisher, S. 1993. “The role of macroeconomic factors in growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 32, N° 3, pp. 485 – 512.

Fouda, M. S. (2003) « Economie africaine », polycopié de cours, Université de Yaoundé II.

Friedman, M. 1968. « The role of monetary policy », American Economic Review, vol. 58, N° 1, pp. 1 – 17.

Fuhrer, J.C. et Moore, G.R. 1995. “Inflation Persistence”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1), pp. 127–160.

Fuhrer, J.C., Moore, G.R. et Schuh, S.D. 1995. “Estimating the linear quadratic inventory model. Maximum Likelihood versus Generalized Method of Moments”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 35(1), p. 115–157.

Gali, J. et Gertler, M. 1999. “Inflation dynamics : A structural econometric analysis”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), pp. 195–222.

Giannoni, M.P. et Woodford, M. 2002. « Optimal interest rate rule : I. General theory », NBER Working Paper N° 9419.

Ghei N. et Hinkle L. 1999. « A note on nominal devaluation, inflation, and the real exchange rates », in Hinkle, L.E. et Montiel, P.J. eds., Exchange rate misalignments : Concepts and measurement for developing countries. World Bank Research Publication.

Ghei N. et Pritchett L. 1999. « The three pessimisms : exchange rates and trade flows in the Franc Zone », in Hinkle, L.E. et Montiel, P.J. eds., Exchange rate misalignments : Concepts and measurement for developing countries. World Bank Research Publication.

Goodfriend, M. 1991. « Interest rate and the conduct of monetary policy », Canergie – Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 34, pp. 7 – 30.

Gregory, A.W. et Hansen, B.E. 1996. “Residual – based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 70, pp. 99 – 126.

Gregory, A.W., Nason, J.M. et Watt, D.G. 1994. “Testing for structural breaks in cointegrated relationships”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 71, N° 1 – 2, pp. 321 – 341.

Hansen, L.P. 1982. “Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators”, Econometrica, 50(4), p. 1029-1054.

Henderson D.W. et McKibbin W.J. 1993a. « A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies : implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence », Canergie – Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 39, p. 221 – 317.

Henderson, D.W. et McKibbin, W.J. 1993b. « An assessment of some basic monetary policy regime pairs : analytical and simulation results from simple multi – region macroeconomc models », in Bryant R., Hooper P., Mann C. eds., Evaluating policy regimes : new research in empirical macroeconomics, Brookings Institution, Washington D.C.

Hodrick, R. and Prescott, E.C. 1997. “Postwar U.S. business cycles : An empirical investigation”, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, vol. 19, pp. 1 – 16.

Honohan, P. 1990. “Monetary Cooperation in the CFA Zone”, Policy, research and External Affairs WPS 389, World Bank.

Islam, N. 1995. “Growth empirics : A panel data approach”, Quaterly Journal of Economics, vol. 110, N° 4, pp. 1127 – 1170.

Iwata, K. 1989. “Comments ‘Differences in Income Elasticities and trends in Real Exchange Rates’ by Paul Krugman”, European Economic Review, vol. 33, N° 5, p. 1047 – 1049.

Johansen, S. 1988. “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, N° 2-3, pp. 231 – 254.

Johansen, S. 1995. Likelihood – based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. 1990. “Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 52, pp. 169 – 210.

Johansen, S., Mosconi, R., and Nielsen, B. 2000. “Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend”, Econometric Journal, vol. 3, N° 2, pp. 216 – 249.

Kamel, N.M. and Véganzones, M.A. 2002. “Exchange rate regime and competitiveness of manufactured exports, the case of MENA countries”, MENA Working Paper Series N° 27.

Kamin, S.B. 1988. « Devaluation, external balance, and macroeconomic performance : a look at the numbers », Princeton Studies in International Finance, N° 62.

Kamin, S.B. 1998. « A multi – country comparison of the linkages between inflation and exchange rate competitiveness », Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Paper, N° 603.

Kisinguh, K., Maana, I., Maturu, B. 2006. “A new keynesian phillips curve for kenya”, Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) Working Paper Series, WP/06/02.

Krugman, P. 1989. “Differences in Income Elasticities and trends in Real Exchange Rates”, European Economic Review, vol. 33, N° 5, pp. 1031-1054.

Kuikeu, O. 2004. « Mésalignement du taux de change réel, facteur explicatif de la structure des exportations des économies africaines au sud du sahara : cas des PAZF », XIVèmes journées internationales du SESAME (Séminaire d’Études et de Statistiques Appliquées à la Modélisation en Économie), Pau : France.

Kydland, F. et Prescott, E. 1977. « Rules rather thah discretion : the inconsistency of optimal plans », Journal of Political Economy, vol. 85, N° 3, pp. 473 – 492.

Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt et Shin 1992. “Testing the null of stationary against the alternative of a unit root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), pp.159-178.

Lucas, R.E.Jr. 1975. “Econometric Policy Evaluation : a Critique” in K. Bruner et A. Meltzer, (eds), The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets, Carnegie-Rochester Conferences Series in Public Policy, 1(1), pp. 19-46, Amsterdam : North-Holland.

Lee, Pesaran et Smith 1996. “Growth and convergence in a muti-country empirical stochastics Solow Model”, Journal of applied econometrics, vol. 12, N° 4, pp. 357-392.

Lynn, R. et McCarthy, F.D. 1989. “Recent economic performance of developing countries”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, vol. 1, N° WPS 228.

MacDonald, R. 1997. “What determines real exchange rates ? The long and short of it”, IMF Working Paper 97/21, International Monetary Fund.

Mankiw, N., Romer, D. et Weil, D.N. 1992. “A contribution to the empirics of economic growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 107, N° 2, pp. 407 – 437.

McCallum, B.T. 1988. « Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy », Canergie – Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 29, pp. 173 – 203.

McQuinn, K. et Whelan, K. 2007. “Solow 1956. as a model of cross – country growth dynamics”, MPRA Paper 5892, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Meyer, L.H. 2000., « Structural change and monetary policy », Remarks before the joint conference of the Federal Reserv Bank of San Francisco and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Federal Reserv Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California March 3..

Monga, C. et Tchatchouang, J–C. 1996. « Sortir du piège monétaire », Economica, Paris.

Montiel, P.J. 1999. “Determinants of the long – run equilibrium real exchange rate : An analytical model” in Hinkle, L. et Montiel, P. (eds), Exchange rate misalignment :Concepts ad measurement for developing countries. World Bank Research Publication.

Nurkse, R. 1945. Conditions of international monetary equilibrium, Essays in International Finance 4 (Spring), Princeton, New Jersey : Princeton University Press, International Finance Section.

Ondo Ossa, A. 1992. « Taux de change du franc cfa et construction européenne », Monde en Développement, N° 77 – 78, tome XX, pp. 59 – 74.

Padoa – Schioppa, T. et al 1987. « Efficiency, stability and equity : A strategy for the evolution of the economic system of the european community », Oxford University Press, Oxford. Perron, P. 1989. “The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis”, Econometrica, vol. 57, N° 6, pp. 1361 – 1401.

Roberts, J.M. 1995. “New keynesian economics and the phillips curve”, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 27(4), pp. 975 – 984.

Rose, A.K. 1991. « The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : does the marshall – lerner condition hold ? », Journal of International Economics, vol. 30, N° 3 – 4, pp. 301 – 316.

Rotemberg, J. et Woodford, M. 1997. “An optimisation – Based Econometric Framework for the evaluation of monetary policy”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 12, p. 297-346.

Rudebusch, G.D. 1995. « Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations and the term structure », Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 35, N° 2, pp. 245 – 274.

Sargent T.J. et Wallace, N. 1975. « Rational expectations, the optimal monetary instrument, and the optimal money supply rule », Journal of Political Economy, vol. 83, N° 2, pp. 241 – 254.

Schatz, K–W. 1989. “Comments ‘Differences in Income Elasticities and trends in Real Exchange Rates’ by Paul Krugman”, European Economic Review, vol. 33, N° 5, pp. 1047 – 1049.

Sekkat, K. and Varoudakis, A. 1998. “Exchange rate management and manufactured exports in Sub – Saharan Africa”, OCDE Development Centre, Technical Paper, N° 134.

Shortland A. et Stasavage D. 2004., « Monetary policy in the franc zone : Estimating interest rate rules for the BCEAO », Research Paper, N° 2004/20, UNU – Wider, Helsinki, Finland.

Solow, R.M. 1956. “A contribution to the theory of economic growth”, Quaterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70, N° 1, pp. 65 – 94.

Summers, R., Heston, A. et Aten, B. 2006. “Penn World Table Version 6.2”, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, University of Pennsylvania.

Svensson, L.E.O. 2001. « Inflation targeting : Should it be modeled as an instrument rule or a targeting rule », European Economic Review, vol. 46, N° 4 – 5, pp. 771 – 780.

Taylor, J.B. 1980. “Aggregate dynamics and staggerred contracts”, Journal of Political Economy, 88(1), pp. 1–22.

Taylor, J. 1993. « Discretion versus policy rules in pratice », Canergie – Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 39, pp. 195 – 214.

Taylor, J. 1999. « Monetary policy rules eds. », NBER – Business Cycles Series volume 31, University of Chicago Press.

Tenou, K. 2002. « La règle de Taylor : Un exemple de règle de politique monétaire appliquée au cas de la BCEAO », Notes d’Informations et de Statistiques, N° 523, BCEAO.

Wicksell, K. 1898. « Interest and Prices », transcript Richard Kahn, London, Macmillan, 1936.

Woodford, M. 2001. « The taylor rule and optimal monetary policy », American Economic Review, vol. 91, N° 2, pp. 232 – 237.

Wu, Y. 2005. “Growth, Expansion of Markets, and Income Elasticities in World Trade”, IMF Working Paper, N° 05/11.

Yellen, J.L. 1996. « Monetary policy : goals and strategy », Remarks at the National Association of Business Economists (March 13).

Zivot, E. et Andrews, D.W.K. 1992. “Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 10, pp. 251 – 270.