Nevin, Rick (2007): Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure. Published in: Environmental Research , Vol. 104, No. 3 (July 2007): pp. 315-336.
Download (1MB) | Preview
This study shows a very strong association between preschool blood lead and subsequent crime rate trends over several decades in the USA, Britain, Canada, France, Australia, Finland, Italy, West Germany, and New Zealand. The relationship is characterized by best-fit lags (highest R2 and t-value for blood lead) consistent with neurobehavioral damage in the first year of life and the peak age of offending for index crime, burglary, and violent crime. The impact of blood lead is also evident in age-specific arrest and incarceration trends. Regression analysis of average 1985-1994 murder rates across USA cities suggests that murder could be especially associated with more severe cases of childhood lead poisoning.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure|
|Keywords:||Lead Poisoning, Crime, IQ, Behavior, Violence|
|Subjects:||K - Law and Economics > K3 - Other Substantive Areas of Law > K32 - Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy ; Regulation ; Public Health
|Depositing User:||Rick Nevin|
|Date Deposited:||11 Dec 2011 02:16|
|Last Modified:||08 Dec 2016 08:18|
Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (1988) The Nature and Extent of Lead Poisoning in Children in the United States, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (2000) Case Studies in Environmental Medicine: Lead Toxicity, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
American Highway Users Alliance (2004) Unclogging America’s Arteries: Effective Relief for Highway Bottlenecks 1999-2004, Retrieved March 11, 2006, from http://www.highways.org/pdfs/bottleneck2004.pdf
American Psychological Association (2004). American Psychological Association, and the Missouri Psychological Association as Amici Curiae Supporting Respondent. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.apa.org/psyclaw/roper-v-simmons.pdf
Australian Institute of Criminology (1999-2006) Australian crime: facts and figures. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/facts/
Australian Institute of Health & Welfare (1996) Lead in Australian Children: Summary of the National Survey of Lead in Children.
Banks, E., Ferretti, L., & Shucar, D. (1997). Effects of low level lead exposure on cognitive function in children: A review of behavioral, neuropsychological and biological evidence, Neurotoxicology, 18, 237-81
Barclay, G & Tavares, C. (2003) International comparisons of criminal justice statistics 2001, UK Home Office, Issue 12/03
Bartzokis G, Beckson M, Lu PH, Nuechterlein KH, Edwards N, Mintz J. (2001) “Age-related changes in frontal and temporal lobe volumes in men: a magnetic resonance imaging study”, Archives of General Psychiatry, 58, 461-465.
Beck, A. & Harrison, P. (2001) Prisoners in 2000, Bureau of Justice Statistics, NCJ 188207, Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/p00.pdf
Bellinger, D. (2004). Lead, Pediatrics, 113, 1016-1022
Bureau of Justice Statistics, (1993; 2001) Most serious offense of State prisoners, by offense, admission type, age, gender, race, and Hispanic origin, Retrieved March 11, 2006, from http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/dtdata.htm#ncrp
Bureau of Justice Statistics, (2004). Arrests by age group, number and rates for total offenses, violent offenses, and property offenses, 1970-2003, 12/04. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/dtdata.htm#crime
Bureau of Justice Statistics, (2005). Murders, robberies, and aggravated assaults in which firearms were used, numbers of offenses and rates per 100,000 population, 1973 to 2004. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/guncrimetab.htm
Bureau of Justice Statistics, (2006). Criminal offenses (number of crimes reported to police and crime rates) since 1960. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm
Bureau of Justice Statistics, (2007). Four measures of serious violent crime. Retrieved February 12, 2007, from http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/4meastab.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics, (2004). Comparative Civilian Labor Force Statistics: Ten Countries 1959-2003.
California Department of Justice (2005). Crime in California 2004.
Canfield, R., Henderson, C., Cory-Slechta, D., Cox, C., Jusko, T., & Lanphear, B. (2003). Intellectual impairment in children with blood lead levels below 10 g/dL. The New England Journal of Medicine, 348, 1517-1522.
Chevron. (2000). Aviation Fuels Technical Review: Aviation Gasoline Introduction.
Council of Europe. (2000) European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.europeansourcebook.org/index.html
Council of Europe. (2003) European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics – 2003, Second Edition, Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.ministerievanjustitie.nl:8080/b_organ/wodc/publications/ob212_01.pdf
Denno, D. W. (1990). Biology and Violence, Cambridge University Press, NY, NY
Dietrich, K., Ris, M., Succop, P., Berger, O., & Bornschein R.. (2001). Early Exposure to Lead and Juvenile Delinquency, Neurotoxicology and Teratology, 23, 511-518
DiIulio, J. (1996) “Fill Churches, Not Jails: Youth Crime and "Superpredators", Senate Judiciary Committee, Subcommittee on Youth Violence. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.brookings.edu/views/testimony/diiulio/19960228.htm
Donohue, J. & Levitt, S. (2001). Legalized Abortion and Crime. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 379-420.
Dorsey, T., Zawitz, M., & Middleton, P. (2005) Drugs and Crime Facts, NCJ 165148, Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/dcf.pdf
Federal Highway Administration (2003) Net Motor-Fuel Volume Taxed, by State, 1950-1995, Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/summary95/section1.html
Ferrington, D., Langan, P., & Tonry, M. (2004). Cross-National Studies in Crime and Justice, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Foster, R. (2001) “Your brain's nerves keep developing even through your 40s”, Health Scout. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.loni.ucla.edu/media/News/HS_05162001.html
Fox, J. (1996). Trends in Juvenile Violence, U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Fox, J. & Zawitz, M. (2004). Homicide trends in the United States, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm#contents
Gilsinn, J., (1972) Estimates of the Nature and Extent of Lead Paint Poisoning in the United States, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards.
Gottfredson L. (1998) The general intelligence factor, Scientific American, 9, 24-29
Graycar, A. (2001). Centenary Article - Crime in twentieth century Australia, 2001 Year Book Australia, ABS Catalogue Number 1301.0.
Hagedorn, J. (2004). Gangresearch.net, Retrieved December 14, 2004, from: http://gangresearch.net/Globalization/guggenheim/chihomicide/pages/homwalls65.html http://gangresearch.net/Globalization/guggenheim/chihomicide/pages/homchang.html
Harrison, P. (2000) Incarceration rates for prisoners under State or Federal jurisdiction, per 100,000 residents, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/dtdata.htm#corrections
Harrison, P. & Beck, A. (2005) Prisoners in 2004, Bureau of Justice Statistics, NCJ 210677, Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/p04.pdf
International Energy Administration, (1960-1990); OECD Product Supply and Consumption (1000 tonnes): Motor Gasoline, IEA Oil Information Data Service.
Interpol (2005) International Crime Statistics
Jackson, R. (1998). The Exposure of children to lead, by J. Julian Chisholm and Harold E. Harrison, Pediatrics, 1956: 18;943-948. Pediatrics, 102, 227-229.
Jacobs, D., Clickner, R., Zhou, J., Viet, S., Marker, D., Rogers, J., Zeldin, D., Broene, P., & Friedman, W. (2002). The prevalence of lead-based paint hazards in U.S. housing, Environmental Health Perspectives, 110, 599-606.
Jacobs, D. & Nevin, R., (2006). “Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010”, Environmental Research, Accepted 12/2005.
Koebel, C., (1996). Urban Redevelopment, Displacement and the Future of the American City. Community Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
Kristof, F.S., (1968). Urban Housing Needs through the 1980’s: an Analysis and Projection. The National Commission on Urban Problems, Research Report No. 10.
Langan, P. & Farrington, D. (1998). Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96, Bureau of Justice Statistics. NCJ 169284. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/cjusew96.htm
Langan, P. & Levin, D., (2002). Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994, Bureau of Justice Statistics, NCJ 193427.
Levitt, S. D. (2004). Understanding why crime fell in the 1990s: Four factors that explain the decline and six that do not, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 163-190.
Lidsky, T. & Schneider, J. (2003). Lead neurotoxicity in children: basic mechanisms and clinical correlates, Brain, 126, 5-19
Maryland Department of the Environment (2004) Childhood Blood Lead Surveillance in Maryland 2003 Annual Report, Lead Poisoning Prevention Program.
Matsuzawa, J., Matsui, M., Konishi, T., Noguchi, K., Gur, R., Bilker, W. & Miyawaki, T. (2001) Age-related volumetric changes of brain gray and white matter in healthy infants and children, Cerebral Cortex, 11, 335-342.
McElvaine, M. DeUngria, E., Matte, T., Copley, C., and Binder, S. (1992) "Prevalence of radiographic evidence of paint chip ingestion among children with moderate to severe lead poisoning, St. Louis, Missouri, 1989 through 1990," Pediatrics, 89, 740-742.
Meyer, H. & Mitchell, A. (1943). Lead and zinc pigments and zinc salts, pp. 165-178, In Minerals yearbook 1941, US Geological Survey, Washington.
Meyer, P., Pivetz, T., Dignam, T., Homa, D., Schoonover, J., & Brody, D. (2003) Surveillance for elevated blood lead levels among children 1997-2001, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 52 (SS-10) 1-22.
Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (2004). FY 2003 Blood Lead Testing Data.
Moffitt, T. (1993) Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674–701.
Mukherjee,S., Carcach, C., & Higgins, K. (1997). A Statistical Profile of Crime in Australia, Australian Institute of Criminology, Research and Public Policy Series Prepared for the Second National Outlook Symposium, March 1997
National Academy of Sciences. (1993). Measuring Lead Exposure in Infants, Children, and Other Sensitive Populations, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Commission on Life Sciences, National Academy Press, Washington DC.
National Institute of Mental Health (2001). Teenage brain: a work in progress, NIH Publication No. 01-4929
Needleman, H., Riess, J., Tobin, M., Biesecker GE, Greenhouse JB. l. (1996). Bone lead levels and delinquent behavior, Journal of the American Medical Association, 257, 363-369.
Needleman, H., McFarland, C., Ness, R., Fienberg, S., & Tobin, M. (2003). Bone lead levels in adjudicated delinquents. A case control study. Neurotoxicology and Teratology, 24, 711-717.
Neisser U., Boodoo, G., Bouchard, T., Boykin, A., Brody. N., Ceci, S., Halpern, D., Loehlin, J Perloff, R., Sternberg, J., Urbina, S. (1996) Intelligence: knowns and unknowns, American Psychologist, 51, 77-101.
Nevin, R. (2000). How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy. Environmental Research, 83, 1-22.
Nevin, R., Gazan, H., & Bender, C. (1999) More evidence of rational market values for home energy efficiency, The Appraisal Journal, LXVII, 454-460
Nevin, R. & Jacobs, D. (2006) Windows of opportunity: Lead poisoning prevention, housing affordability, and energy conservation, Housing Policy Debate, 17, Accepted 10/2005.
New York City Department of Health (2002) Surveillance of Childhood Blood Lead Levels in New York City, Lead Poisoning Prevention Program. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/html/lead/l2002.shtml
New York State (1999) 1997 Crime and Justice Annual Report, Division of Criminal Justice Services. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.criminaljustice.state.ny.us/crimnet/ojsa/cja_97/contents.htm
New York State (2004) 2000-2001 Crime and Justice Annual Report. Division of Criminal Justice Services. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.criminaljustice.state.ny.us/crimnet/ojsa/cja_00_01/contents.htm
New Zealand Police. (2001). NZ Police Statistics trends for year ending 30 June 2001. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.police.govt.nz/service/statistics/
New Zealand Police. (2005). New Zealand Crime Statistics 2004. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.police.govt.nz/service/statistics/2004/calendar/stats-national-20041231.pdf
Octel Ltd. (1969-1990). World Wide Survey of Motor Gasoline Quality, Octel: London.
Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (2004) OJJDP Statistical Briefing Book Online. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://ojjdp.ncjrs.org/ojstatbb/crime/faqs.asp?ID=T38.
O'Neill, R. (1997). “CHA Demolitions: Oh Yes, They Can Take That Away From Me”, The Chicago Reporter.
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (1993) Risk Reduction Monograph No. 1: Lead.
Pirkle, J., Brody, D., Gunter, E., Kramer RA, Paschal DC, Flegal KM, Matte TD.. (1994). The decline in blood lead levels in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association, 272, 284-91
President’s Task Force on Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks to Children. (2000). Eliminating Childhood Lead Poisoning: A Federal Strategy Targeting Lead Paint Hazards. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC.
Raine, A., Phil, D., Stoddard, J., Bihrle, S., Buchsbaum, M. (1998) Prefrontal glucose deficits in murderers lacking psychosocial deprivation. Neuropsychiatry. Neuropsychology. and Behavioral Neurology, II, 1-7
Rapuano, M. & Florini, K. (1994) The Global Dimensions of Lead Poisoning: An Initial Analysis, Alliance To End Childhood Lead Poisoning and the Environmental Defense Fund.
Reaves, B. (2003). Number of full-time sworn law enforcement officers, rate per 100,000 residents, and percent change in the United States, 1975-1998, 01/03, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/dtdata.htm#justice
Royal Society of Canada (1986) Lead in the Canadian Environment: Science and Regulation,.
Sampson, R. & Laub, J. (2003). Life-Course Desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70, Criminology, 41, 555-592
Schwartz, J. & Pitcher, H. (1989). The relationship between gasoline lead and blood lead in the United States, Journal of Official Statistics, 5, 421-431.
Schwartz, J. (1994). Low-level lead exposure and children's IQ: A meta-analysis and search for a threshold, Environmental Research, 65, 42-55
Silbergeld E. (1992) Mechanisms of lead neurotoxicity, or looking beyond the lamppost, The FASEB Journal, 6, 3201-3206
Sowell E.R., Thompson P.M., Holmes C.J., Jernigan, T., & Toga, A. (1999) “In vivo evidence for post-adolescent brain maturation in frontal and striatal regions”, Nature Neuroscience, 2, 859-61
Statistics Canada, (2005). Crimes by type of offence, CANSIM, table 252-0013. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Pgdb/legal02.htm
Stretesky, P. & Lynch, M. (2001) The relationship between lead exposure and homicide, Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, 155, 579–82
Taylor R. (1999). Forty years of crime and criminal justice statistics, 1958 to 1997, UK Home Office, Research Development and Statistics.
Thomas, V., Socolow, R., Fanelli, J., & Spiro, T. (1999) "Effects of reducing lead in gasoline: An analysis of the international experience," Environmental Science and Technology, 33, 3942-3947.
Triggs, S. (1997). Interpreting Trends in Recorded Crime in New Zealand, New Zealand Ministry of Justice
U.K. Department of Environment. (2004). Emissions of lead (Pb) to the atmosphere from all UK sources, 1970 to 2002. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/commondata/103608/f2_lead_dt_1161608.txt
U.K. Home Office. (2004). Summary of recorded crime data from 1898 to 2002/03. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/recordedcrime1.html
U.K. Institute of Petroleum: UK Petrol Consumption, 1938 to 1970.
United Nations, (1950-1960) Energy Database, U.N. Statistical Division
United Nations, (2005) Sub-Saharan Africa Celebrates Leaded Petrol Phase-Out: Target Set for a Global Phase-Out by 2008, U.N. Environment Programme, Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.unep.org/pcfv/documents/NR2005_66.pdf
U.S. Census. (1960-1990) Statistical Abstract of the United States.
U.S. Census. (1975). Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970. U.S. Government Printing Office.
U.S. Census (1977-2003) Annual/American Housing Surveys, Current Housing Reports Series H-150. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/h150.html
U.S. Census (2004). International Data Base. Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (1991). Preventing Lead Poisoning in Young Children, Report No. 99-2230, Atlanta GA, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, (1997) Update: blood lead levels – United States, 1991-1994, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 46, 141-6.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, (2000) Blood lead levels in young children – United States and selected states, 1996–1999, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 49, 1133-7.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, (2005) CDC Surveillance Data, 1997-2004, Retrieved March 9, 2006, from http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/lead/surv/stats.htm
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. (1971). 1970 HUD Statistical Yearbook., U.S. Government Printing Office
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (1999) Economic Assessment of the Final Rule on Lead-Based Paint: Requirements for Notification, Evaluation and Reduction of Lead-Based Paint Hazards in Federally Owned Residential Property and Housing Receiving Federal Assistance, Office of Lead Hazard Control, Washington DC.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1986). Air Quality Criteria for Lead: Volume I of IV, Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office, EPA 600/8-83-028 a-d.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2001). National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1999.
U.S. Geological Survey (2006). Lead Statistics, Retrieved February 9, 2007, from http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/of01-006/lead.pdf
U.S. Public Health Service (1965). Survey of Lead in the Atmosphere of Three Urban Communities, Environmental Health Series, Publication No. 999-AP-12.
U.S. Public Health Service (1966). Air Quality Data from the National Air Sampling Networks and Contributing State and Local Networks 1964-1965, Cincinnati OH
van Alphen, M., (1998) Paint Film Components. National Environmental Health Forum, General Series Number 2. South Australian Health Commission, Adelaide.
World Health Organization (1995). Inorganic lead. International Programme on Chemical Safety, Environmental health criteria; 165, ISBN 92 4 157165 9, accessed at: http://www.inchem.org/documents/ehc/ehc/ehc165.htm#SectionNumber:3.3