Machado, Fabiana (2011): Inequality, Uncertainty, and Redistribution.
Download (2MB) | Preview
For centuries it has been believed that the extension of the franchise in unequal societies would lead to relatively high levels of redistribution. According to international rankings, how- ever, among the fourteen most unequal countries in the world, nine have been democratic for at least the past fourteen years. A prerequisite for the adoption of redistributive policies is that there be elected representatives who are either committed to or who have an incentive to advocate for such policies. The prospects of such an outcome depend not only on candidates personal policy preferences and motivations, but also how they are perceived by voters. One important feature shared by highly unequal democracies is that they tend to be relatively young, with many new parties and candidates in the political scene. This means elections occur under a high degree of uncertainty about critical information voters need to chose their delegates. Thus, in this paper I develop a model of elections as a game of incomplete information to explore how uncertainty, candidates’ motivation (policy vs. office), and beliefs about their ideological inclinations affect what policy interests are likely to be represented in the political process. I explore the model’s assumptions and outcomes empirically using individual level data for each presidential election in Brazil since democratization.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Inequality, Uncertainty, and Redistribution|
|Keywords:||Elections, Redistribution, Inequality, Uncertainty|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D80 - General
|Depositing User:||Fabiana Machado|
|Date Deposited:||01. Jan 2012 00:26|
|Last Modified:||22. Mar 2015 06:30|
Bartels, L. M. (1986). Issue voting under uncertainty: An empirical test. American Journal of Political Science, 30(4):709–728.
Branscum, A. J., Johnson, W. O., and Thurmond, M. C. (2007). Bayesian beta regression: Applications to household expenditure data and genetic distance between foot-and-mouth disease viruses. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 49(3):287–301.
Calvert, R. L. (1985). Robustness of the multidimensional voting model: Candidate motivations, uncertainty, and convergence. American Journal of Political Science, 29(1):69–95.
Constant, B. (1988). Political Writings, chapter Principles of Politics Applicable to all Represen- tative Governments. Cambridge University Press.
Duggan, J. (2000). Repeated elections with asymmetric information. Economics and Politics, 12(2):109–135.
Duggan, J. and Fey, M. (2005). Electoral competition with policy-motivated candidates. Games and Economic Behavior, 51(2):490–522.
Eckel, C., Johnson, C., and Montmarquette, C. (2004). Saving decisions of the working poor: Short-and lont-term horizons. CIRANO: Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations: 2004s-45.
Engle-Warnick, J., Escobal, J., and Laszlo, S. (2006). The effect of an additional alternative on measured risk preferences in a laboratory experiment in peru. Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations: 2006s-06.
Marx, K. (1973). Surveys from Exile: Political Writings. London: Allen Lane. Meltzer, A. H. and Richard, S. F. (1981). A rational theory of the size of government. Journal of Political Economy, 89:914–27. 32
Osborne, M. J. and Slivinski, A. (1996). A model of political competition with citizen-candidates. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111:65–96.
Powell, G. B. (2000). Elections as Instruments of Democracy. Yale University Press.
Power, T. and Zucco Jr, C. (2009). Estimating Ideology of Brazilian Legislative Parties, 1990–2005: A Research Communication. Latin American Research Review, 44(1):218–246.
Robinson, J. A. (2009). The political economy of redistributive policies. Research for Public Policy, Inclusive Development ID-09-2009,, RBLAC-UNDP.