Macromodels of the Romanian transition economy, Second edition

Dobrescu, Emilian (1998): Macromodels of the Romanian transition economy, Second edition. Published in: Macromodels of the Romanian transition economy, Second edition, Expert Publishing House, Bucharest (July 1998): pp. 1-274.

Abstract

The book develops the main lines of thought contained in “Macromodels of the Romanian transition economy”, edited in 1996 by the “Expert Publishing House”. The 1997 version of the macromodel (Dobrescu 1997 b) has included some changes, the following being the most important: - the introduction of the special block for demographic variables (population, labour force, retired people); - the connection of the annual indicators with a monthly block dedicated to the evolution of export and exchange rate; - the aggregation of the previous five sectors in the following three: a) industry, construction and agriculture; b) transport, communication, trade, banking and other services; c) public services; - the re-estimation of the econometric functions on the basis of updated statistical series (including the provisional data for 1996). The 1998 version of the macromodel, presented in this book, contains new improvements: - a more relevant determination of the expected disposable income of households, firms, and general consolidated budget; - the delimitation of the main consequences of the budget deficits; - a more detailed elaboration of the possible scenarios of the future evolution of the Romanian economy. The present book tries to define the features of the weakly structured economy from an institutional perspective. The institutional framework is studied from three points of view: a) the main components (property rights, rules of human interaction, the amplitude and ways of the discretionary intervention of public authorities in the economic life); b) the degree of specification of these components (clearly and uncontradictorily defined, ambiguously defined); c) social validation (formal or informal). Starting from the possible combinations of these elements, two types of economic systems can be distinguished: the first implies a high expected stability and is denoted as a structured economy and the second is characterised by a relatively low expected stability, being considered a weakly structured economy. The transition economy, at least in the case of Romania, is defined as weakly structured: the property rights are not yet clearly delimited; the economic life is marked by the mixture of old and new rules and organisations involved in human interaction; discretionary intervention of the public authorities is very large and submitted to random political interests; the formal institutions are incomplete and soft, but the informal ones have an important role in economy and society. On this theoretical basis, the main macroeconomic implications are analysed: a) chronically inefficient utilisation of the production factors; b) persistence of inter-enterprise arrears and of disturbing form of “dollarization”; c) large share of non-accounted eco-nomy; d) monetary distortion and asymmetry of liquidities. The weakly structured economy is characterised by congenital instability and, therefore, the modelling problems are especially complicated. The notion “econometric model” is used in the following meaning: as a set of interdependent equations (from which at least one is econometric) approximating a particular given class of statistical data in accordance with the modeller’s image about functional relations among respective series. If the model reflects a “given class of statistical data”, it is evident that it can be used only for the analysis of this information; forecasts are acceptable exclusively in the proximity of the respective time interval. On the other hand, the “image” represents a mixture of theoretical assumptions adopted (explicitly or implicitly) by the modeller, and also of his beliefs, intuitions, attitudes and desires concerning the studied process. Consequently, for every economic system a large variety of models are possible depending on the conceptual premises of their creators. Maybe, this relativism is intellectually uncomfortable, but it is inherently implied in econometric modelling, especially when a weakly structured economy is approached. The most difficult problem is the stationarity of statistical data. In order to obtain an overview about this question, 76 annual and 14 monthly series have been exposed to Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test. The basic series and their natural logarithms are stationary only in 34% of the cases for annual data; the monthly data are better situated (68%), but they are relevant for very few correlations. The general opinion about frequent stationarity of the first and second differences are confirmed. Instead, the indices and the corresponding rates are less stationary. The best performance is registered by the first difference of indices and their variation. Under these conditions, two modelling approaches are possible: a) to use, partially at least, the basic unstationary series, the stability of macromodel usually being higher than the stability of separate functions as a result of the interactions among them and the accounting identities (a similar solution has been adopted for the 1996 version of the macromodel); b) to use only stationary series, that is preponderantly derived indicators with supplementary problems (in forecasts) generated by their translation in basic ones (the 1997 and 1998 versions are built on this principle). The appendices of the book contain a set of the most relevant macroeconomic indicators of Romania for 1980-1996 (annual data) and January 1991 - December 1996 (monthly data), the detailed presentation of the econometric functions, the main scenarios of the Romanian eco-nomy for 1998-2000, a selected bibliography and thematic index.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: model, econometric relationships, input-output analysis, simulations, forecasting
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling

References

Abraham-Frois G.(1988): “Economie politique”, Economica, traducere Humanitas, 1994. Bucharest

Adair P.(1995): "Economie informelle et économie de marché industrialisées", Congrés de l'AIELF, Bucharest

Adam J. (1993): “Planning and market in Soviet and East European Thought, 1906s-1992”, St. Martin’s Press, New York

Albu L. L.(1995): "Underground economy and fiscal policies modelling", Research for the European Commission's Phare ACE Programme

Alchian A.A. (1991): “Property rights”, in “The new Palgrave - The world of economics”, edit. by Eatwell J., Milgate M., Newman P., The Macmillan Press Ltd.

Alchian A. A., Demsetz H. (1972): “Production, information, costs and economic organizations”, American Economic Review, vol. 62, December

Alessandrini S., Dallago B.(1989): "The unofficial economy Consequences and perspectives in different economic systems", GOWER

Allen R.D.G. (1964): “Mathematical analysis for economists”, Macmilan, London.

Aoki M., Kim H. K. (edit.) (1995): "Corporate governance in transitional economies Insider control and the role of banks", EDI Development Studies, The World Bank, Washington D. C.

Archambault E. (1985): "Comptabilité Nationale", Econo¬mica, Paris

Archambault E., Arkhipoff O.(edit.)(1986): “Etudes de comptabilité nationale”, Economica, Paris

Archambault E., Arkhipoff O. (edit.)(1990): “La comptabilité nationale face au défi international”, Economica, Paris

Archambault E., Arkhipoff O. (edit)(1992): “La comptabilité nationale, porquoi faire?”, Economica, Paris

Arrow K.J.(1991): “Economic theory and the hypothesis of rationality”, in “The new Palgrave - The world of economics”, edited by Eatwell J., Milgate M., Newman P., The Macmillan Ltd.

Balcerowicz L., Gelb A. (1994): "Macropolicies in transition to market economy: a three year perspective", The World Bank

Banciu D. (1993): “Coruptia in societatea romaneasca post revolutionara in perspectiva normativa si sociologica”, Sociologie romaneasca, Serie noua, Anul IV, Nr.4

Barry F. (1996): "The small open economy and the Romanian macromodel", Working paper, Phare ACE programme of the European Union

Barro J. R.(1987): “Macroeconomics”, Jon Wiley and Sons, New York

Baumol W.J., Blinder A. S. (1991): “Economics - principles and policy”, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Publishers

Becker G.S.(1976): “The economic approach to human behavior”, Romanian Edition, All, 1994, Bucharest

Begg D.K.H.(1996): “Monetary policy in central and eastern Europe: lessons after half a decade of transition”, IMF Working paper WP/96/108, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, September

Begg D., Portes R. (1992): "Enterprise debt and economic transformation: financial restructuring of the state sector in Central and Eastern Europe", Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper No.695, June

Bélair J., Dubuc S. (1991) (edit.): “Fractal geometry and analysis”, Series C - Mathematical and Physical Sciences, vol. 346, Kluwer Acad. Publishers

Bernstam M.S.(1996): “The debt collusion and the mystery of Russian reform”, Working paper, Hoover Institution

Bernstam M.S.,MaCurdy T.E.(1996): “Why reform Russian banks, and how”, Working paper, Hoover Institution

Blaga L. (1935-1937): “Orizont si stil”, “Spatiul mioritic”, “Geneza metaforei si sensul culturii”, Humanitas, 1994, Bucharest

Blaug M. (1990): “Economic theory in retrospect”, Cambridge University Press, Romanian edition Edit. Did. si Ped., 1992, Bucharest

Blanchard O.J.(1996): “Theoretical aspects of transition”, The American Economic Review Vol.86, No.2, May

Blanchard O.J., Froot K.A., Sachs J. D. (1994): “The transition in Eastern Europe: Volume 1 Country Studies”, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago

Blommestein H., Marrese M. (edits)(1991): “Transformation of planned economies: property rights reform and macroeconomic stability:, OECD, Paris

Bonke J. (1993): "Distribution of economic resources: implications of including household production", Review of income and wealth, Series 38, No. 3

Borges A.M. (1986): “Les modeles appliqués d’équillibre général: une évaluation de leur utilité pour l’analyse des politiques économiques”, Revue Economique de l’OCDE, Nr.7

Boudon R. (coord.) (1992): “Traité de sociologie”, Press Universitaire de France, Paris

Bradley J., Modesto L., Sosvilla- Rivero S. (1995): “Hermin - A macroeconometric modelling framework for the EU periphery”, Economic Modelling, Vol.12, No.3

Bran P. (1995): “Relatii financiare si monetare internationale”, Ed. Economica, Bucharest

Brown W.S.(1988): “Macroeconomics”, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey

Buchanan J. M., Tullock G. (1962): “The calculus of consent. Logical foundations of constitutional democracy”, The University of Michigan Press, 1990

Buck T. (1982): “Comparative industrial systems” New York, St. Martin’s

Calvo G.A., Kumar M.S. (1994): “Money demand, bank credit, and economic performance in former socialist economies”, I. M.F. Working Paper No. 94/3, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.

Capanu I., Wagner P., Mitrut C. (1994): “Sistemul conturilor nationale si agregate macroeconomice”, Editura All, Bucharest

Carlin W., Soskice D. (1990): “Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain - A modern approach to employment, inflation and the exchange rate”, Oxford University Press

Case K. E., Fair R.C. (1989): “Principles of economics”, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey

Cerna S. (1994): “Banii si creditul in economiile contemporane”, Ed. Enciclopedica, Bucharest

Chadeau A. (1983): "Measuring household activities: some international comparisons", The 18th General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Luxembourg

Chadeau A., Roy C. (1986): "Relating households' final consumption to household activities: substitutabi¬lity or complementarity between mar¬ket and non market production", Re¬view of income and wealth, Series 32, No. 4

Charemza, W. W. and Deadman, D. F. (1993): "New directions in econometric practice: general to specific modelling, cointegration and vector autoregression", Edward Elgar, England

Charmes J. (1982): "Comment mésurer la contribution du secteur non structuré a la production nationale dans les pays du tiers monde", Conférence Régionale Africaine de l' International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Donala, Novembre

Chiarella C. (1990): The elements of a nonlinear theory of economic dynamics”, Springer - Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York

Chirichiello G. (1994): “Macroeconomic models and controversies”, St. Martin’s Press, New York

Ciupagea C. (1994): “An elasticity approach to the analysis of Romanian foreign trade policy during the years of transition”, Economics of Planning 27, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands

Ciupagea C. (1997): “Fundamente teoretice si metodo¬lo¬gice ale politicilor de comert exterior in cazul unei economii in tranzitie”, Teza de doctorat, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice, Bucharest

Clifton E. V., Khan S. M. (1993): "Interenterprise arrears in transforming economies: The case of Romania", IMF Staff Papers, vol.40, No.3

Coase R.H. (1937): "The nature of the firm", Economica, November

Coase R.H. (1960): "The problem of social cost", The journal of law and economics, October

Comisia Nationalã pentru Statisticã a României (1993-1996): "Conturile Naţionale, anii 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992", Bucharest

Comisia Nationalã pentru Statisticã a României (1996): Populatia Romaniei pe varste, sexe, medii si judete la 1 ianaurie 1996, Bucharest

Comisia Nationalã pentru Statisticã a României (1996): Anuarul demografic al Romniei, Bucharest

Comisia Nationalã pentru Statisticã a României (1997): Evolutia principalelor fenomene demografice in trimestrul I 1997, Bucharest

Cooter R.D. (1991): “Coase theorem”, in “The new Palgrave - The world of economics”, edit by Eatwell J., Milgate M., Newman P., The Macmillian Press Ltd.

Croitoru L. (1995): “Functionarea economiei si masurarea economica”, Teza de doctorat, ASE, Facultatea de Cibernetica, Statistica si Informatica Economica

Daianu D. (1993): "Arieratele intra întreprindere în econo¬mia de tranziþie", Oeconomica No.4 Daianu D. (1997): “Transformarea ca proces real”. IRLI, Bucharest

Dallago B. (1991): "Second and irregular economy in eastern Europe: its consequences for economic transition", Bureau of labour statistics, U.S. Department of Labour, Washington, February

Day R.H. (1993): “Complex economic dynamics: obvious in history, generic in theory, elusive in data”, in Pesaran M. H., Potter S.M. (edit). - “Nonlinear dynamics, chaos and econometrics”, John Wiley and Sons

Debare M.(1992): "Les milliards de l'ombre, l'économie souterraine", Hatier, Paris

Demburg T.F. (1985): “Macroeconomics: concepts, theories and policies”, Mc.Graw-Hill, Inc.

Dictionar de matematica si cibernetica in economie (1979), Editura Stiintifica si Enciclopedica, Bucharest

Didier M. (1989): “Economie: les régles du jeu”, Edit. Economica, Paris, Romanian edition Humanitas, 1994, Bucharest

Dobrescu E. (1989): "Mãsurarea economicã", Tratat de economie contemporanã, vol. 2, cartea a II a, Editura Politicã, Bucharest

Dobrescu E., Postolache T. (1990): “Consemnari economice”, Ed. Academiei Romane, Bucharest

Dobrescu E. (1992): "The transition and economic behaviour", Romanian economic review, Tome 36, No.1

Dobrescu E. (1993 a): "La transition et la modélisation macroéconomique", Romanian economic review, Tome 37, No. 2

Dobrescu E. (1993 b): "The L M function in a transition economy", SOREC IRLI, Oeconomica, No. 5, Bucharest

Dobrescu E. (1994 a): “Econometric tests of some monetary hypotheses”, SOREC seminar, Bucharest

Dobrescu E. (1994 b): "Money velocity in a transition economy: the case of Romania", Romanian economic review, Tome 38, No. 2

Dobrescu E. (1996 a): "The unstable processes and macroeconomic modelling", Romanian economic research, Observer, No. 3 4

Dobrescu E. (1996 b): "A possible short run macromodel of the Romanian transition economy", Centre of economic information and documentation, Bucharest

Dobrescu E. (1996 c): “Macromodels of the Romanian transition economy”, Expert Publishing House

Dobrescu E. (1997 a): “Dihotomia real-nominal in econo¬mia romaneasca de tran¬zi¬tie”, Microeconomia Aplicata, No.1, Supliment

Dobrescu E. (1997 b): “Macromodel of the Romanian transition economy (version 1997)”, Romanian economic review, Tome 42, No 2

Dobrescu E. (1997 c): “Macromodelul economiei româ¬nesti de tranzitie” Microeconomia Aplicatã, No. 4, Supliment

Dobrescu E. (1998): “Essai d’estimation de l’economie non-comptabilisée (exemple Roumain)”, Septième Colloque de comptabilité nationale, Paris, Janvier

Dogan M., Pelassy D. (1992): “Economia mixta”, Editura Alternative, Bucharest

Dornbusch R. (1994): “Exchange rates and inflation”, The MIT Press

Dornbusch R., Fischer S., Sparks G. (1985): “Macroeconomics”, McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited

Dornbusch R., Fischer S. (1993): “Moderate inflation”, World Bank Economic Review, vol. 7, No.1

Draghicescu D. (1907): “Din psihologia poporului roman”, Editura Albatros, 1995, Bucharest

Drechsler L., Horvath P. (1985): “Some problems of the measurement of total consumption in Hungary “, Review of Income and Wealth, Series 31, No. 2

Dunavölgyi M., Sandor G. (1992): "Welfare measurement within non market circumstances with special regard to Eastern Europe", The 22nd General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Flims, Switzerland, August September

Durkheim E. (1895): “Les regles de la méthode sociologique”, 1986, PUF, Paris

Eck R. van, Kazemier B. (1988): "Features of the hidden economy in the Netherlands", Review of Income and Wealth, Series 34, No. 3

Eckstein A., (edit.) (1971): “Comparison of Economic systems: theoretical and methodological approaches”, Berkeley University of California Press

Falconer K. J. (1985): “The geometry of fractal sets”, Cambridge University Press

Feige E. L. (1989): "The underground economies tax evasion and information distortion", Cambridge University Press

Flood L., Klevmarken M.A. (1992): "Market work, household work and leisure: an analysis of time use in Sweden", The 22nd General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Flims, Switzerland, August September

Froyland J. (1992): “Introduction to chaos and coherence”, Institute of Physics Publishing, Bristol, Philadelphia and New York

Frydman R., Rapaczynski A., Earle J.S. (1993): “The privatization process in Central Europe”, Central European University Press, London

Gaertner W., Wennig A.(1983): "The economics of the shadow economy", Proceedings of the International Conference on the economics of the shadow economy held at the University of Bielefeld, West Germany, Springer Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg New York Tokyo 1985

Gardner H. S. (1988): “Economic systems”, Dryden, New York

Granger C. W. J. (edit) (1990): “Modelling economic series: readings in econometric methodology”, Oxford University Press, Oxford

Gregory P. R., Stuart R.C. (1992): “Comparative economic systems”, 4-th ed., Houghton Mifflin Company

Hall R. E., Taylor J.B. (1991): “Macroeconomics”, W.W. Norton and Company

Hall S.G. (edit) (1994): “Applied economic forecasting techniques”, Harvester Wheatsheaf

Hall S.G., Ciupagea C. (1996): “Modelling the Romanian exchange rate 1991-1995”, ACE Project, London Business School

Harvey A. C. (1990): “The econometric analysis of time series”, Cambridge, Mass, MIT Press

Hausman D.M. (1984): “The philosophy of economics an anthology”, Cambridge University Press, Romanian edition Humanitas, 1993, Bucharest

Hertz J., Krogh A., Palmer R. G. (1991): “Introduction to the theory of neural computation”, Addison- Wesley Publishing Company

Houston J. F. (1990): "The policy implications of the underground economy", Journal of Economics and Business, No.42

Iancu A. (1994): "Criza tranzitiei: crizã predominant institutionalã", Academia Românã, Centrul de Informare si Documentare Economicã, Bucharest

Ickes B., Ryterman R. (1993): “Roadblock to economic reform: inter-enter prise debt and the transition to markets”, IRIS Working Paper No. 61, University of Maryland, College Park

Ionete C. (1993): “Criza de sistem a economiei de comanda si etapa sa exploziva”, Editura Expert, Bucharest

Isarescu M. (1996): “Inflatia si echilibrele fundamentale ale economiei romanesti”, BNR, Caiete de Studii, Nr. 3 iunie

Islam S., Mandelbaum M. (1993): “Making markets: economic transition in Eastern Europe and the Post-Soviet States”, Council of Foreign Relations Press, New York

Kazemier B., Exel J. (1992): “The allocation of time in the Netherlands in the context of the SNA”, The 22 nd General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Flims, Switzerland, August-September

Kenessey Z. (1987): “The primary, secondary, tertiary, and quaternary Sectors of the Economy”, The Review of Income and Wealth, December

Knight F.H. (1921): “Risk, uncertainty and profit”, Boston: Houghton Mifflin

Kornai J. (1990): “The road to a free economy”, W. W. Norton and Company, New York

Kornai J. (1992): “The socialist system. The political economy of socialism”, Princenton, Princenton University Press

Kuhn T. (1962): “The structure of scientific revolutions”, University of Chicago Press, Chicago

Kuznets S. (1976): “Economic growth of nations. Total output production structure”, Harvard University Press

Laski K. in cooperation with A. Bhaduri (1996): “Lessons to be drawn from main mistakes in the transition strategy”, OECD/CCET Colloquium, Paris

Lazea V. (1994): “Arieratele - o abordare monetara”, SOREC, seminar, Bucharest

Lazear E.P. (edit.) (1995): "Economic transition in Eastern Europe and Russia", Hoover Institution Press, Stanford University

Leal A. M. (1994): “Economia ascunsa reflectata in conturile nationale portugheze”, Seminarul C.N.S., Bucharest

Le système Elargi de Comptabilité Nationale (1976), Collections de l’INSSE, Série C. Nr. 44-45, Mai

Le système Elargi de Comptabilité Nationale (1987), Collections de l’INSSE, Série C. Nr. 140-141

Lord M. J. (1994): "Romanian macromodel for flexible exchange rate system", USAID, Development Alternatives

Madgearu V.N. (1944): “Curs de economie politica“, Institutul de Cercetari Economice, Bucharest

Malinvaud E. (1964): “Méthodes statistiques de l’économétrie:, Dunod, Paris

Mandelbrot B. (1989): “Les objects fractals”, NBS Flammarion, France

Mankiw M.G. (1994): “Macroeconomics”, Worth Publishers

March J., Simon H. (1958): “Organizations”, New York Wiley

Measurement of employment in the informal sector (1992), International Labour Organisation, Geneva, January-February

Mereuta C. (1994): “Analiza diagnostic a societatilor comerciale in economia de tranzitie”, Ed. Tehnica, Bucharest

Merton R. K. (1949): “Social theory and social structure”, Glencoe, The Free Press, Macmillan 1975, New York

Miltenburg H. (1995): “Development of productive capacity in Central Europe (1950-1992)”, Annual Meeting of the Association for Evolutionary Economics (AFEE), January 8, Washington

Mihoc G., Urseanu V., Ursianu E. (1982): “Modele de analiza statistica”, Editura Stiintifica si Enciclopedica, Bucharest

Montias J. M. (1976): “The structure of economic systems”, New Haven, Yale University Press

Moscovici S. (1984): The phenomenon of social representations”, published in R.M. Farr and S. Moscovici - “Social representations”, Cambridge University Press, Romanian edition - Soc. St. si Tehnica S.A., 1995 , Bucharest

Mungiu A. (1995): "Românii dupã '89 Istoria unei neîntelegeri", Humanitas, Bucharest

Munteanu Gurgu C. (1991): "Dimensiunea culturalã a reformei economice", Oeconomica, Nr.1

Murphy M. (1981): “Comparative estimates of the value of household work in the United States for 1976”, The 17th General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Gouvieux, France, August

North, D. C. (1992): "Institutions, institutional change and economic performance", Cambridge University Press

Pareto V. (1916): “Traité de sociologie générale”, Oevres complètes, Droz, 1964-1976, Geneva

Parsons T. (1937): “The structure of social action”, McGraw-Hill, The Free Press, 1964, New York

Pasti V. (1996): "România în tranzitie Cãderea în viitor", Editura Nemira, Bucharest

Pesaran M. H. and Potter S.M. (edit) (1993): “Nonlinear dynamics, chaos and econometrics”, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Pestieau P.(1989): "L'économie souterraine", Hachette

Peters E. E. (1991): “Chaos and order in the capital markets: A new view of cycles, prices, and market volatility”, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Petersen, H. G. (1987): "The Laffer curve and <illicit cash> in simple macroeconomic models", The 20th General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Rome, Italy, August

Phelps E.S. in collaboration with Hoon H.T., Kanagis G., Zoega G. (1994): “Structural slumps - The modern theory of unemployment, interest, and assets”, Harvard, University Press

Pichot A. (1989): “Elargissement des comptabilités nationales”, Economica, Paris

Pommerehne W.W., Frey B.S. (1988): "L'économie souterraine: Problèmes de mésure et rèsultats quantitatifs", Revue d'économie politique, No. 3

Popa C. (1997): “Dezvoltãri conceptuale si empirice în politicile monetare contemporane”, Teza de doctorat, ASE, Bucharest

Popovici F., Radu V., Popovici N. (1994): “Metodologia de reducere treptata a blocajului financiar, Tribuna Economica, No. 47, Bucharest

Popovici N., Popovici F., Vlad I., Radu V., Popovici V., Radu C. (1997): “Blocajul financiar- Tehnica deblocãrii”, Editura Didacticã si Pedagogicã R. A., Bucharest

Portes R. (edit) (1993): “ Economic transformation in Central Europe: A Progress Report”, Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg, and CEPR, London

Puwak H. (1993): “The shadow economy - theoretical, methodological and empirical approaches”, Romanian National Forecast Commission Bulletin No. 16 and 17, Bucharest

Pyatt G. (1988): “A SAM Approach to Modelling”, Journal of Policy Modelling, Vol.10, No. 3

Pyatt G., Round J. (1985): “Social accounting matrices, A basis for planning”, World Bank

Pyle D. J. (1989): “Tax evasion and the black eco- nomy”, The Macmillan Press LTD

Radulescu S.M. (1993): “Fenomenul de coruptie ca tip de inovatie sociala in contextul starii anomice care caracterizeaza tranzi¬tia in Romania”, Sociologia romaneasca, Serie noua, Anul IV, No.4

Radulescu - Motru C. (1907): “Puterea sufleteasca”, Editura Moldova, Iasi, 1995

Radulescu - Motru C. (1910): “Sufletul neamului nostru - Calitati bune si defecte”, Editura Anima, 1990, Bucharest

Revised system of national accounts (1990), United Nations, New York

Rohlf W.D. Jr. (1993): “Introduction to economic reasoning”, Second Edition, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company

Rostow W. (1960): “The stage of economic growth”, Cambridge University Press

Roubaud F., Seruzier M. (1991): “Economie non-enregistrée par la statistique et secteur informal dans les pays en developpment”, STATECO, No. 68, INSEE

Ruggles R., Ruggles N.D. (1985): “The integration of macro and micro data for the household sector”, The 19th General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Noordwijkerhout, Netherlands, August

Sachs J.D., Larrain F.B. (1993): “Macroeconomics in the global economy”, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey

Sargent T. J. (1993): “Rational expectations”, in “The Fortune encyclopedia of economics”, ed. by Henderson D. R., Warner Books, New York

Sava S., Zaman G., Pert S. (1994): “Privatization in Romania: objectives, alternatives, results”, Paper, 26-27 February, Sofia

Scarf H. E., Shoven J.B. (edit) (1984): “Applied General Equilibrium Analysis”, Cambridge University Press

Schnitzer M. (1991): “Comparative economic systems”, 5-th ed., Cincinnati, South-Western

Schumpeter J. (1942): “Capitalisme, socialisme et démocratie”, Payot, 1972, Paris

Schumpeter J. (1954): “History of economic analysis”, Oxford University Press, New York

Scutaru C. (1996): “Modelarea procesului inflationist in perioada de tranzitie”, Teza de doctorat, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice, Bucharest

Seel B., Hufnagel R. (1992): “Intra-household division of labour and the female labour supply”, The 22 nd General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Flims, Switzerland, August-September

Seligman B. B. (1963): “Main currents in modern economics. Economic thought since 1870”, The Free Press and Glencoe

Shleifer A. (1994): "Establishing property rights", The World Bank

Simon H. (1982): “Models of bounded rationality: economic analysis and public policy”, Cambridge, The MIT Press

Sims C. A. (1996): “Macroeconomics and methodology”, Journal of economic perspective, Vol. 10, No.1

Smith S.(1986): "Britain's shadow economy", Clarendon Press Oxford

Stern N (1996): “The transition in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union: some strategic lessons from the experience of 25 countries over 6 years”, OECD/CCET Colloquim, Paris

Stiglitz J. E. (1994): “Whither Socialism?”, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Suwa A. (1991): “Les modèles d’équilibre général calculable”, Economie et Prévision, Nr.97

Takayama A. (1991): “Mathematical economics”, Cambridge University Press

Tanzi V. (1983): "The underground economy in the United States: annual estimates, 1930 1980”, IMF Staff Papers, 30 (2)

Tarhoaca C. (1995): “Perfectionarea metodologiei de elaborare a balantei legaturilor dintre ramuri si de utilizare a ei in procesul conducerii economico - sociale”, Teza de doctorat, ASE, Facultatea de Cibernetica, Statistica si Informatica Economica

Theil H. (1971): “Principles of econometrics”, New York, John Wiley

Traimond P. (1994): “La comptabilité nationale et l’écono¬mie non officielle russe”, Université Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbone (Laboratoire d’économie sociale), INSEE, Paris

Transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (1993), British Review of Economic Issues, October

Vulcanescu M. (1940 - 1944): “Dimensiunea romaneasca a existentei”, Editura Fundatiei Culturale Romane, 1991, Bucharest

Wallis J.J., North D.C.: “Measuring the tranzaction sector in the American economy 1870-1970”, in S.L.Eugerman and R.E. Gallman (eds) “Long-term factors in American economic growth”, University of Chicago Press, 1986 Chicago

Weber M. (1920): “Die protestantische Ethik und der <Geist> des Kapitalismus”, Romanian edition, Humanitas, 1993, Bucharest

Willett T. D., Burdekin R.C.K., Sweeney R.J., Wihlborg C. (edit) (1995): “Establishing monetary stability in emerging market economies”, Westview Press

Willianson O.E. (1985): "The economic institutions of capitalism: firms, markets, relational contracting", The free press, a division of Macmillan, New York

Wolff E. M. (1981): “The size distribution of household disposable wealth in the United States”, The 17-th General conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, Gouvieux, France, August

Zamfir C. (coordonator) (1995): “Dimensiuni ale saraciei”, Expert, Bucharest