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Identificación de ciclos económicos en Bolivia: 1970-2008

Valdivia, Daney and Yujra, Paola (2009): Identificación de ciclos económicos en Bolivia: 1970-2008.

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Study and characterization of business cycles are an important issue in the analysis of empirical regularities in a developing economy. Following standard literature of business cycles, we establish episodes of business cycles in Bolivia. We apply economic and statistical filters to economic series to get the business cycle. Once we get the economic cycle, we apply statistical analysis, volatility and correlations, to characterize the business cycle of fundamental variables for the economy. Important results show pro cyclical movements between macroeconomic variables and GDP. Co-movements of consumption and investment indicate the presence of adaptive and rational expectations. Finally, we present an approximation of natural level of GPD that indicates that the economy should reach a 5% of economic growth in the medium and long run.

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