An optimization-based framework for modeling counterterrorism strategies

Eiselt, H.A. and Bhadury, Joy and Burkey, Mark L. (2011): An optimization-based framework for modeling counterterrorism strategies. Forthcoming in: OR Insight (2012)

Abstract

The paper introduces the subject of terrorism and counterterrorism by means of a two-person bimatrix game that provides some insight into the behavior of the two players. We then examine three important areas in counterterrorism tasks: the detection of terrorist cells and how to render them inoperable, the fortification of assets in order to protect them from terrorist attacks, and the optimal evacuation of people from an area affected by terrorism. Basic mathematical models are formulated and demonstrated. The paper concludes with some thoughts on potential extensions of the models presented here.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: mathematical models; terrorism
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C70 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C60 - General

References

Abrahms M (2008). What terrorists really want: terrorist motives and counterterrorism strategy. International Security 31/4: 78-105.

Artificial Intelligence Lab, The University of Arizona, http://ai.arizona.edu/research/terror/, last accessed on November 24, 2011

Bard JF (1999). Practical bilevel optimization: Algorithms and applications, Springer-Verlag.

Barr D, Baker A (2001). Getting the message from “eco-terrorists:” mystery group takes its campaign east. New York Times, January 8, 2001: A15.

Bier V, Oliveros S, Samuelson L (2007). Choosing what to protect: strategic defensive allocation against an unknown attacker. Journal of Public Economic Theory 9:563-587.

Bobeica M, Jéral J-P, Garcia T, Best C (2008). A quantitative analysis of “root causes of conflict,” pp. 115-139 in Chen HC, Reid E, Sinai J, Silke A, Ganor B (eds.) Terrorism informatics: knowledge management and data mining for homeland security, Springer-Verlag, New York.

Carley K, Fridsma D, Casman E, Altman N, Chang J, Kaminsky B, Naves D, Yahja A (2003). BioWar: scalable multi-agent social and epidemiological simulation of bioterrorism events. NAACSOS Conference 2003, Day 4, Electronic Publication, Pittsburgh, PA, IEEE SMCA03-11-0274., http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/publications/papers/carley_2003_biowarscalablemulti.pdf, last accessed on November 24, 2011

Carley KM, Lee J-S, Krackhardt D (2002). Destabilizing networks. Connections 24/3: 79–92. http://www.insna.org/PDF/Connections/v24/2001_I-3-10.pdf, last accessed on November 24, 2011.

Charters DA (2007) 9/11: Seven years into history. The Journal of Conflict Studies 27/2: 173-187.

Church RL, Scaparra MP (2007). Protecting critical assets: the r-interdiction median problem with fortification. Geographical Analysis 39, 129-146.

Church RL, Scaparra MP, Middleton RS (2004). Identifying critical infrastructure: the median and covering facility interdiction problems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 94, 491-502.

Dempe S (2002). Foundations of bilevel programming, Springer-Verlag.

de Silva FN, Eglese RW (2000). Integrating simulation modelling and GIS: spatial decision support systems for evacuation planning. The Journal of the Operational Research Society 51/4: 423-430.

Eiselt, H.A. (1985). A location problem with minimax objective. pp. 85-99 in Noltemeier, H. (ed.), Proceedings of the WG ’85: International Workshop on Graphtheoretic Concepts in Computer Science, Universitätsverlag R. Trauner, Linz, West Germany.

Eiselt HA (1986). Continuous maximin knapsack problems with GLB constraints. Mathematical Programming 36/1: 114-121.

Eiselt HA (1998). Perception and information in a competitive location model. European Journal of Operational Research 108/1: 94-105.

Eiselt HA, Sandblom C-L (eds. & authors) (2004). Decision analysis, location models, and scheduling problems. Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg-New York.

Farley JD (2003). Breaking Al Qaeda cells: a mathematical analysis of counterterrorism operations (a guide for risk assessment and decision making),” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 26: 399-411.

Freeman L (1977). A set of measures of centrality based on betweenness. Sociometry 40: 35-41.

Frey, BS, Luechinger, S, Stutzer A (2007). Calculating tragedy: assessing the costs of terrorism. Journal of Economic Surveys 21/1: 1-24.

Galvao RD, Marianov V (2011). Lagrangean relaxation-based techniques for solving facility location problems. pp. 391-420 in Eiselt HA, Marianov V (eds) Foundations of location analysis. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Ghosh A, Buchanan A (1988). Multiple outlets in a duopoly: a first entry paradox. Geographical Analysis 20/2: 111-121.

Gross O, Wagner R (1950). A continuous Colonel Blotto game. Research memorandum, The Rand Corporation RM-408.

Gutfraind A (2009). Understanding terrorist organizations with a dynamic model. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 32/1: 45-59.

Hamacher H, Tjandra S (2002). Mathematical modeling of evacuation problems: a state of the art. pp 227-266 in: Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Schreckenberg M, Sharma SD (eds). Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

Hartnell B, Gunther G (2009). Security of underground resistance movements, pp. 185-204 in: Memon N, Farley JD, Hicks DL, Rosenorn T (eds.) Mathematical methods in counterterrorism, Springer-Verlag, Vienna.

Hoffman B (2006). Inside terrorism. Columbia University Press, New York, NY.

Klerks P (2001). The network paradigm applied to criminal organisations: theoretical nitpicking or a relevant doctrine for investigators? Recent developments in The Netherlands. Connections 24/3: 53–65.

Krebs VE (2002). Mapping networks of terrorist cells. Connections 24/3: 43–52.

Krebs V (2008). Connecting the dots: connecting two identified terrorists. http://www.orgnet.com/tnet.html last accessed on November 24, 2011.

List of designated terrorist organizations (2011). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorist_groups, last accessed November 24, 2011.

Lu Q, Huang Y, Shekhar S (2003). Evacuation planning: a capacity constrained routing approach. Proceedings of the 1st NSF/NIJ conference on Intelligence and security informatics. Springer-Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg.

Martello S, Toth P (1990). Knapsack problems: algorithms and computer implementations. Wiley-Interscience, Chichester.

McGehee RW (1983). Deadly deceits: My 25 years in the CIA. Sheridan Square Publications, New York.

Milgram S (1967). The small world problem. Psychology Today, May issue: 60-67).

Niskanen WA. (1968). The peculiar economics of bureaucracy. The American Economic Review 58(2): 293–305.

Orgnet.com (2011). Social network analysis. A brief introduction. http://www.orgnet.com/sna.html, last accessed November 24, 2011.

Osman MS, Ram B, Stanfield P, Davis L, Samanlioglu F, Bhadury J (2009). “Optimization models for distributed scheduling for disaster area logistics,” Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Service Operations, Logistics, and Informatics, Chicago, IL.

Osman MS (2009). Evacuation route optimization models for low-rise building groups. Dissertation thesis at Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, NC A&T State University, North Carolina.

Perry RW, Lindell MK, Greene M (1981). Evacuation planning in emergency management. Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass.

Pinker EJ (2009). A mathematical analysis of short-term responses to threats of terrorism, pp. 141-160 in: Memon N, Farley JD, Hicks DL, Rosenorn T (eds.) Mathematical methods in counterterrorism, Springer-Verlag, Vienna.

Political Research Associates (2010). The roots of the leaderless resistance concept. http://www.publiceye.org/liberty/terrorism/insurgency/cells.html, last accessed on November 24, 2011.

Rodriguez JA (2005) The March 11th Terrorist Network: in its weakness lies its strength. WP EPP-LEA: 03, http://www.ub.edu/epp/wp/11m.PDF, last accessed on November 24, 2011?

Posner RA (2008). Privacy, surveillance, and law. The University of Chicago Law Review 75/1: 245-260.

Rapoport D (2004). The four waves of modern terrorism. In Cronin A, Ludes J (eds) Attacking Terrorism. Georgetown University Press, Washington, DC, pp. 46–73.

Rhodes CJ (2009). Inference approaches to constructing covert social network topologies, pp. 127-140 in: Memon N, Farley JD, Hicks DL, Rosenorn T (eds.) Mathematical methods in counterterrorism, Springer-Verlag, Vienna.

Sageman M (2004). Understanding terror networks. University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, PA.

Sageman M (2008) Leaderless Jihad. University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, PA.

Sandler R, Enders W (2004). An economic perspective on transnational terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy 20: 301-316.

Sherali HD, Carter TB, Hobeika AG (1991). A location-allocation model and algorithm for evacuation planning under hurricane/flood conditions. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological Volume 25/6: 439-452.

Silke A (2008). Research on terrorism: A review of the impact of 9/11 and the global war on terrorism, pp. 27-50 in Chen HC, Reid E, Sinai J, Silke A, Ganor B (eds.) Terrorism informatics: knowledge management and data mining for homeland security, Springer-Verlag, New York.

Skillicorn D (2009). Extracting knowledge from graph data in adversarial settings, pp. 33 – 54 in: Memon N, Farley JD, Hicks DL, Rosenorn T (eds.) Mathematical methods in counterterrorism, Springer-Verlag, Vienna.

State Department (2011) http://www.state.gov/. last accessed November 24, 2011

The Age (2004). http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/08/27/1093518081060.html, last accessed on November 24, 2011.

Transcript of Usama Bin Laden Video Tape, December 13, 2001 http://www.defense.gov/news/Dec2001/d20011213ubl.pdf, last accessed on November 29, 2011.

Waeckerle JF (1991). Disaster planning and response. New England Journal of Medicine 324/12: 815-21.

Waldau N, Gattermann P, Knoflacher H, Schreckenberg M (eds) (2006). Pedestrian and evacuation dynamics ’05. Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg.

Weinberg L, Eubank W (2010). An end to the fourth wave of Terrorism? Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 33/7: 594-602

WordIQ (2010). http://www.wordiq.com/definition/Red_Army_Faction, last accessed November 24, 2011.