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“Ideal” financial development and financial overaccumulation

Hsu, Sara and Li, Jianjun (2012): “Ideal” financial development and financial overaccumulation.

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In this paper, we examine whether there is an “ideal” level of financial development, somewhere between financial capital overaccumulation and financial capital underaccumulation. We construct indexes of non-bank or speculative financial development, financial (bank) deepening, and production. We find that financial deepening does support what we dub the “speculative spread,” that is, the difference between non-bank or speculative finance and real production. As financial deepening grows, the speculative spread may grow in step. Where the speculative spread exceeds deepening, financial instability may occur. Hence financial deepening may promote or constrain economic development.

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