Bell, William (2012): The impact of climate change on electricity demand in the Australian national electricity market.
Download (603kB) | Preview
This paper aims to identify climate change adaptation issues in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the robustness of the institutional arrangements that support effective adaptation from the demand side. This paper finds that three major factors are hindering or are required for adaptation to climate change: institutional fragmentation both economically and politically; distorted transmission and distribution investment deferment mechanisms; and failure to model and to treat the NEM as a node based entity rather than state based. Proposed solutions to the three factors are discussed. These proposed solutions are tested and examined in forthcoming reports.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The impact of climate change on electricity demand in the Australian national electricity market|
|Keywords:||Climate change adaptation; electricity demand; Australian National Electricity Market|
|Subjects:||R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R22 - Other Demand
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q0 - General > Q01 - Sustainable Development
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics
L - Industrial Organization > L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities > L94 - Electric Utilities
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R38 - Government Policy
|Depositing User:||Dr William Paul Bell|
|Date Deposited:||15 Apr 2012 11:01|
|Last Modified:||26 Apr 2016 23:57|
ABS 2008, '3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101', Australian Bureau of Statistics, <http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3222.02006%20to%202101#Publications>.
—— 2010, '3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2031', Australian Bureau of Statistics, <http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3236.0Main+Features12006%20to%202031?OpenDocument>.
AEMC 2009, Review of energy market frameworks in light of climate change policies: final report, Sydney, viewed Sep 2009, <http://www.aemc.gov.au/Market-Reviews/Completed/Review-of-Energy-Market-Frameworks-in-light-of-Climate-Change-Policies.html>.
AEMO 2011, 'Aggregated Price & Demand : 2006 - 2010', viewed 18 Dec 2011, <http://www.aemo.com.au/data/aggPD_2006to2010.html>.
Ball, B, Ehmann, B, Foster, J, Froome, C, Hoegh-Guldberg, O, Meredith, P, Molyneaux, L, Saha, T & Wagner, L 2011, Delivering a competitive Australina power system, Brisbane, <http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg/working-papers>.
Barnett & O’Neill 2010, 'Maladaptation', Global Environmental Change, vol. 20, pp. 211-3.
BRANZ Limited 2007, An Assessment of the Need to Adapt Buildings for the Unavoidable Consequences of Climate Change, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources.
E3 2011, 'Equipment Energy Efficiency', <http://www.energyrating.gov.au/>.
Ford, JD, Berrang-Ford, L & Paterson, J 2011, 'A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations', Climate Change, vol. 2011, no. 106, pp. 327-36.
Foster, J, Bell, WP, Froome, C, et al. 2012, Analysing institutional adaptability to redress electricity infrastructure vulnerability due to climate change, Energy Economics and Management Group, The University of Queensland, Brisbane and Centre for Energy Policy, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology, Sydney.
Garnaut, R 2008, The Garnaut climate change review - final report, Commonwealth of Australia.
Harvey, AC & Koopman, SJ 1993, 'Forecasting hourly electricity demand using time varying splines', Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 88, pp. 1228-36.
Hepworth, A 2011, 'Call for national energy scheme', The Australian, viewed 23 September 2011, <http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/call-for-national-energy-scheme/story-fn91v9q3-1226129315783>.
Hippert, HS, Pedreira, CE & Souza, RC 2001, 'Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Review and Evaluation', IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 16, pp. 44-55.
Howden, SM & Crimp, S 2001, 'Effect of climate and climate change on electricity demand in Australia', in MODSIM 2001, International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Canberra, pp. 655-60.
NAEEEC 2006, Status of air conditioners in Australia, National Appliance and Equipment Energy Efficiency Committee.
NFEE 2007, Consultation Paper National Framework for Energy Efficiency Stage Two, <http://www.mce.gov.au/energy-eff/nfee/about/stage2.html>.
NGF 2007, 'Response to the National Framework for Energy Efficiency – Stage 2 – Consultation Paper ', National Generators Forum, viewed 28 Dec 2011, <http://www.ret.gov.au/Documents/mce/energy-eff/nfee/_documents/e2wg_nfee_stag25.pdf>.
Origin Energy 2007, 'Response to the National Framework for Energy Efficiency – Stage 2 – Consultation Paper ', viewed 28 Dec 2011, <http://www.ret.gov.au/Documents/mce/energy-eff/nfee/_documents/e2wg_nfee_stag26.pdf>.
Powerlink 2011, Annual Planning Report 2011 <http://www.powerlink.com.au/About_Powerlink/Publications/Annual_Planning_Reports/Annual_Planning_Report_2011.aspx>.
Preston, BL & Jones, RN 2006, Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions, a consultancy report for the Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change.
Ramanathan, R, Engle, R, Granger, CWJ, Vahid-Araghi, F & Brace, C 1997, 'Short-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks', International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 13, pp. 161-74.
Sandu, S & Syed, A 2008, Trends in energy intensity in Australian industry, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, December.
Schultz, A & Petchey, R 2011, Energy Update 2011, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, June.
Smith, MH & Hargroves, K 2007, 'Smart approaches to electricity use', ECOS, vol. 135, pp. 12-3.
Stevens, L 2008, Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Physical Infrastructure, The Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE), Parkvaille, Victoria.
Tamblyn, J 2008, 'The State of the Australian Energy Market 2008', paper presented to National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners 120th Annual Convention, 16–19 November 2008, New Orleans, Louisiana, <http://www.aemc.gov.au/News/Speeches/The-State-of-the-Australian-Energy-Market-2008.html>.
Taylor, JW & Buizza, R 2003, 'Using Weather Ensemble Predictions in Electricity Demand Forecasting', International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 19, pp. 57-70.
Thatcher, MJ 2007, 'Modelling changes to electricity demand load duration curves as a consequence of predicted climate change for Australia ', Energy, vol. 32, no. 9, pp. 1647-59.
WEC 2010, Evaluation of residential smart meter policies, World Energy Council.
Wild, P & Bell, WP 2011, 'Assessing the economic impact of investment in distributed generation using the ANEM model', in J Foster (ed.), Market and economic modelling of the impact of distributed generation, CSIRO Intelligent Grid Research Cluster, Brisbane, Australia.
Yates, A & Mendis, P 2009, Climate change adaptation for the electricity sector : handbook, Australian Security Research Centre.
Zoi, C 2005, 'Governator's smart plan gives power to the people', Sydney Morning Hearld, viewed 19 Jan 2012, <http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/governators-smart-plan-gives-power-to-the-people/2005/06/12/1118514931335.html>.
Available Versions of this Item
- The impact of climate change on electricity demand in the Australian national electricity market. (deposited 15 Apr 2012 11:01) [Currently Displayed]