Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Estimating a monetary policy rule for India

Hutchison, Michael and Sengupta, Rajeswari and Singh, Nirvikar (2010): Estimating a monetary policy rule for India. Published in: Economic and Political Weekly , Vol. Vol xl, (18 September 2010): pp. 67-69.

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This paper investigates whether the seemingly discretionary and flexible approach of the Reserve Bank of India can in practice be described by a Taylor-type rule. It estimates an exchange-rate-augmented Taylor rule for India over the period Quarter 1 of 1980 to Quarter 4 of 2008. It investigates monetary policy changes between the pre- and post-liberalization periods in order to capture the potential impact of macroeconomic structural changes on the RBI's monetary policy conduct. Overall, it finds that the output gap seems to matter more to RBI than inflation, there is greater sensitivity to consumer price inflation, exchange rate changes do not constitute an important policy factor, and the post-1998 conduct of monetary policy seems to have changed in the direction of less inertia.

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