Perturbaciones Internacionales y Fluctuaciones del Producto Interno Bruto en una Economía en Desarrollo: Evidencia de República Dominicana para el Período 1998-2008

Ramirez, Francisco A. (2009): Perturbaciones Internacionales y Fluctuaciones del Producto Interno Bruto en una Economía en Desarrollo: Evidencia de República Dominicana para el Período 1998-2008.

Abstract

The aim of this work is to contribute to the literature of the role of foreign factors in determining the fluctuations of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in small, open and developing countries. The following external variables are considered: terms of trade, foreign GDP, foreign inflation and international interest rates. Using the Dominican Republic as a case study, a macroeconomic model of short-term fluctuations which considers the main mechanisms of propagation of external shocks in explaining fluctuations in GDP is specified and estimated. The simulation results suggest that external variables play an important role in generating fluctuations in the Dominican GDP. Of all the variables, the cycles of the United States output, has the greatest impact. The terms of trade shocks are transferred approximately 1 to 1 in the long term. Finally, the effects of foreign interest rates on domestic fluctuations are low and gradual.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: International Shocks and GDP fluctuations in a Developing Economy: Evidence from the Dominican Republic for the Period 1998-2008
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Fluctuaciones Macroeconomicas
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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