Le choix du régime de change pour les économies émergentes

Sfia, Mohamed Daly (2007): Le choix du régime de change pour les économies émergentes.

Abstract

Ce papier revoit la problématique du choix d’un régime de change pour les économies émergentes. Nous revoyons la littérature théorique et empirique sur la question en attachant une attention particulière à l’évolution des régimes de change (éventuelle disparition des régimes intermédiaires) et aux performances macroéconomiques des différents régimes de l’éventail allant de la fixité rigide au flottement. Notre analyse tend à confirmer l’hypothèse de Frankel (1999) « qu’aucun régime de change ne serait universel ou éternel »

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: FSEG tunis
• Language: French
• Keywords: régimes de change; hollowing out; performances macroéconomiques
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange

References

AGHION, P, BACCHETTA, P AND BANERJEE, A (2003) “A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Theory, forthcoming BACCHETTA, P (2000) “Monetary policy with foreign currency debt” (mimeo). Lausanne, Switzerland, University of Lausanne, Study Center Gerzen. 445–456. BAILLIU, J ; LAFRANCE, R ET PERRAULT, J.F (2001) “Régimes de change et croissance économique dans les marchés émergents" In : Les taux de change flottants : une nouvelle analyse, actes d’un colloque tenu à la Banque du Canada, novembre 2000, Ottawa, Banque du Canada, p. 347-377. BAILLIU, J; LAFRANCE, R ET PERRAULT, J.F (2002) “Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth? ”, document de travail no 2002-17, Banque du Canada. BARRO, R, J AND GORDON D (1983) “A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model” Journal of Political Economy 91: 589-610. BAXTER, M AND STOCKMAN, A (1989) “Business Cycles and the Exchange-Rate Regime: Some International Evidence,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 377–400. BAYOUMI, T AND EICHENGREEN, B (1998) “Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications from the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas” Journal of International Economics, 45: 191-209. 88 BÉNASSY-QUÉRÉ, A, AND COEURÉ, B (2000) “Big and small currencies: the regional connection”, CEPII Working Paper 2000-10. BÉNASSY-QUÉRÉ, A, AND COEURÉ, B (2002) “The survival of intermediary Exchange Rate Regimes”, CEPII Working Paper 2002-07. BERGSTEN, F (1999) “The Case for Joint Management of Exchange Rate Flexibility” IIE working papers. BERNANKE B.S AND MISHKIN, F (1997) “Inflation targeting: A new framework for Monetary Policy?” journal of Economic perspectives 9 spring pp 97-116. BHAGWATI, J (1998) “Why Free Capital Mobility may be Hazardous to Your Heath: Lessons from the Latest Financial Crisis”, November BUBULA, A. AND OTKER-ROBE, I (2002) “The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes since 1990: Evidence from De Facto Policies,” IMF Working Paper, No. 02/155 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). BUBULA, A. AND OTKER-ROBE, I (2003) “Are Pegged and Intermediate Exchange rate regimes more Crise Prone” IMF Working Paper published, n° 03/223, Nov BUNRNSIDE C, EICHENGREEN B AND REBELO S (2000) “Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes” NBER WP n°7143. BUNRNSIDE C, EICHENGREEN B AND REBELO S (2001) “why is inflation so low after large devaluations” NBER WP n°8748. 89 CALVO, G.A (1998) “Capital flows and capital-market crises: the simple economics of sudden stops” Journal of Applied Economics, vol. 1, n°1, p. 35-54, November CALVO, G.A (2000) “Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special reference to the Dollarization debate in Latin America” University of Maryland CALVO, G AND REINHART, C (2000) “Fear of floating (mimeo)”. Baltimore, MD, University of Maryland. CALVO, G AND REINHART, C (2001) “Fixing for your life” (mimeo) Baltimore, MD, University of Maryland. CARAMAZZA, F. AND AZZIZ, J (1998) “Fixed or flexible? Getting the exchange rate right in the 1990s”, IMF Economic Issues 13. CAVOLI, T AND RAJAN, R, S (2005) “Have Exchange rate Regimes Become More Flexible Post Crisis? Revisiting the Evidence” University of Adelaide WP January 2005. CHANG, R AND VELASCO, A (1999) “Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," in Ben Bernanke and Julio Rotemberg, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press, 1999. DORNBUSCH, R (2001) “Fewer Monies, Better Monies,” NBER Working Paper No. 8324 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). 90 DRAZEN, A (2000) “Political Economy in Macroeconomics” Princeton University Press. Princeton, New Jersey. EDWARDS, S (1993) “Exchange Rates as Nominal Anchors” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol 129, No.1: 1-32 EDWARDS, S (2001). “Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention”, NBER (December) EDWARDS, S (2002) “The great exchange rate debate after Argentina” North American Journal of Economics and Finance 13 (2002) 237-252 EDWARDS, S, AND MAGENDZO, I (2003), “A Currency of One’s Own: An Empirical Investigation on Dollarization and Independent Currency Unions,” NBER Working Paper No. 9514 EDWARDS, S AND LEVY–YEYATI, E (2003), “Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers,” NBER Working Paper No. 9867 EICHENGREEN, B (2001) “Capital Account Liberalization: What Do the Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?" The World Bank Economic Review. EICHENGREEN, B. HAUSMANN, R AND PANIZZA U (2003) “Currency Mismatch, Debt intolerance and original sin”, NBER WP n° 10036 EICHENGREEN, B AND HAUSMANN, R (1999a) “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility”, NBER, WP n° 7418. EICHENGREEN, B SAVASTANO, M AND SHARMA, S (1999b) “Transition Strategies and Nominal Anchors on the Road to Greater Exchange Rate 91 Flexibility,” Essays in International Finance No. 213 (New Jersey: Princeton University). FISHER, S (2001) “Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?” Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government delivered at the Meetings of the American Economic Association and the Society of Government Economists, New Orleans. FLOOD, R AND ROSE, A (1995) “Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 3–37. FRANKEL, J (1999) “No Single Currency Regime is right for all countries or all times”, Essays in international economics n°215 International Economics section, Princeton University. FRANKEL, J SCHMUKLER, S AND SERVÉN, L (2000) “Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime”, Brookings Trade Forum 2000, edited by Susan Collins and Dani Rodrik. Washington DC: Brookings Institution. GHOSH, A, GULDE, A-M, OSTRY, J AND WOLF, H (1997) “Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?” NBER Working Paper No. 5874, January. GHOSH, A, GULDE, A-M, OSTRY, J AND WOLF, H (2000) “Currency Boards: The Ultimate Fix?” International Monetary Fund. Revised as “Currency Boards: More than a Quick Fix?” Economic Policy, 31 (October):270 335. 92 GHOSH, A, GULDE, A-M, OSTRY, J AND WOLF, H (2003) “Exchange Rate Regimes: Classifications and Consequences” (Paper based on Book Exchange Rate Regimes: choices and Consequences” Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press). GOLDFAJN, I AND GUPTA, P (1999) “Does monetary policy stabilizes the exchange rate following a currency crisis?” Working Paper No. 396.Rio de Janeiro, PUC-Rio, Department of Economics. GOLDFAJN I AND WERLANG,S (2000) “The pass-through from depreciation to inflation: A panel study”, Working Paper No. 423. Rio de Janeiro, PUC-Rio, Department of Economics. GOLDSTEIN, M. (2002) “Managed Floating Plus”, policy Analyses in International Economics, Washington (D.C.), Institute for International Economics. HAKURA, D S (2004), “Learning to Float: The Experience of Emerging Market Countries Since The early 90’S” World Economic Outlook, chap.II. HAUSMANN, R. ET GAVIN, M (1996) “Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock- Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America” IADB Working Paper No. 315 HAUSMANN R, PANIZZA U AND STEIN, E (2000) “Why do countries float the way they float? “ IADB Working Paper No. 418. HERNANDEZ, L AND MONTIEL, P (2001) “Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries: Filling in the ‘Hollow Middle?” IMF Working Paper No. 01/170 93 IMF (1997) “Exchange rate arrangements and economic performance in developing countries”, World Economic Outlook , chap. IV. IMF (1999) “Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions” Washington (DC), IMF INGRAM, J (1969) “Comment on the Optimum Currency Problem”, in R. A. Mundell and A. Swoboda, Monetary Problem in International Economy. Chicago: ChicagoUniversity Press. KAMINSKY, G AND C. REINHART (1996) “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance- of-Payments Problems”, International Finance Discussion Paper No 544 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. KENEN, P (1969) “Theory of Optimum Currency Areas : An electric View” in Mundell R., SWOBODA A. Monetary Problems in The International Economy, University of Chicago Press,Chicago, 405 pages. KINDELBERGER, C (1986) “International Public Goods without International Government” American Economic Review, 75. KRUGMAN, P (1979) “A model of balance of payments crisis", Journal of money, credit and banking, 11 311-325. KRUGMAN, P (1991) “Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, no.3, August, 669-82. KRUGMAN, P (1999) “Balance sheets, the transfer problem, and financial crises”, (mimeo) Cambridge, MA, MIT, department of Economics. 94 KYDLAND, F AND PRESCOTT E, C (1977) “Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans” Journal of Political Economy 85: 473-91 LARRAIN, F AND VELASCO, A (2001) “Exchange-Rate Policy in Emerging Market Economies: The Case for Floating,” Essays in International Economics, Vol. 224, Princeton, N.J. LEVY-YEYATI, E AND STURZENEGGER, F (1999) “Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds versus Words” (Buenos Aires: Universidad Torcuato Di Tella). Available via Internet: http://www.utdt.edu/~fsturzen. LEVY-YEYATI, E AND STURZENEGGER, F (2000) “To Float or to Trail: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes”, CIF Working Paper No. 01/2001 (Buenos Aires: Universidad Torcuato Di Tella). Available via the Internet: http://www.utdt.edu/~ely/growth_final.pdf. LEVY-YEYATI, E AND STURZENEGGER, F (2002) “Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance” IMF Staff Papers, Vol 47, Special Issue. MASSON, P. (2000) “Exchange rate regime transitions”, Journal of Development Economics, 64, 571-586. MCCARTY, J (1999) “Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized countries” BIS working paper N° 79 MCKINNON, R (1963) “Optimum currency areas”, AER, vol. 53, pages pp. 717-724. 95 MCKINNON R AND PILL H (1999) “Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy MISHKIN, F (1996) “Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective, “Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics: 29-62. MISHKIN, F (2000) “Inflation targeting in emerging-market countries”, American Economic Review. Vol 90 (2). MISHKIN, F AND SAVASTANO, M (2000) “Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America” Journal of Development Economics Vol.66: 415-444. MONGELLI, F (2002) “New Views on The Optimum Currency Areas Theory: What is EMU Telling Us?” European Central Bank working paper series, n°138. MUNDELL, R (1961) “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” American Economic Review 51(3): 657-665. MUNDELL, R (1995) “Exchange Rate Systems and Economic Growth,” Revista di Politica Economica, Vol. 85 (June), pp. 3–36. MUSSA, M (1986) “Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence and Implications”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 25, pp. 117–213. 96 MUSSA M, MASSON P, SWOBODA A, JADRESIC E, MAURO P AND BERG A (2000) “Exchange rate regimes in an increasingly integrated world economy”, Occasional Paper No. 193. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund. OBSTFELD, M. (1994) “The Logic of Currency Crises”, Cahiers économiques et monétaires de la Banque de France, n° 43, pp. 189-213 OBSTFELD, M. AND ROGOFF, K (1995) “The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 9 (Fall): 73-96. OBSTFELD, M, SHAMGAUGH, J.C. AND TAYLOR, A (2003) “The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies and Capital Mobility”, Paper presented at the conference on “The Political Economy of Globalization: Can the Past Inform the Present”, Trinity College, Dublin. POLLIN J,P (2004) “Une macroéconomie sans LM: quelques propositions complémentaires” Revue d’économie politique, pp 273-293 RADELET, S AND SACHS, J (1998) “The onset of the Asian financial crises” (mimeo) Cambridge, MA, Harvard Institute for International Development. RAZIN, O AND COLLINS, S (1997) “Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth”, Working Paper 6174, NBER, Cambridge, Mass. REINHART, C (2000) “The mirage of floating exchange regimes” American Economic Review, 90, 65–70. 97 REINHART, C, AND ROGOFF, K (2002) “The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 119 (February), pp. 1–48. RODRIK, D (1998) “Who Needs Capital-Account Convertibility”, in Should the IMF Purse Capital-Account Convertibility, Essay in International Finance No. 207, 1998. ROGOFF, K (1999) “Perspectives on Exchange Rate Regimes” International Capital Flows, ed. by Martin Feldstein, pp. 441–53 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press). ROGOFF, K HUSSAIN, M, MODY A, BROOKS, R AND OOMES, N (2004) “Evolution and performance of exchange regimes” International Capital Flows, ed. by Martin Feldstein, pp. 441–53 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press). SCHULER, K (1999) “The Problem with Pegged Exchange Rates,” Kyklos, Vol. 52, Fasc. 1, pp. 83–102. SVENSSON, L, E.O. (1992), “An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 6, no.4 (Fall), 119-44. TAYLOR, J B (1993) “Discretion versus Policy rules in practice”, Carnegie-Rochester Series on public policy 39, 195-214 VELASCO, A (2000) “Exchange rate policies for developing countries: What have we learned? What do we still not know?” G-24 Discussion Paper Series, No.5. Geneva, UNCTAD, June. 98 WILLETT, T. D. (2002) “Fear of floating needn’t imply fixed rates: feasible options for intermediate exchange rate regimes”, Paper for Fordham/CEPR Conference on Euro and Dollarization. WILLIAMSON, J (1998) “Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility” Article from International Finance October 1998 IIE WILLIAMSON, J (1999) “Future Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing East Asia Exploring the Policy Options” Paper presented to a conference on "Asia in Economic Recovery: Policy Options for Growth and Stability" Organized by the Institute of Policy Studies Singapore June 21-22, 1999 WILLIAMSON, J (1999b) “Are intermediary exchange regimes vanishing?” Article from International Finance December 1999 IIE WILLIAMSON, J (2000) “Designing a Middle Way Between Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates” Working Paper No. 49. ECES. YEAGER, L, B (1998) “How to Avoid International Financial Crises”, CATO Journal, vol. 17, no 3. 99