Goksel, Turkmen and Ozturkler, Harun (2012): The Comparison of the Recent Crises in Turkey in terms of Output Gap.
Download (356kB) | Preview
The importance of output gap and its timely measure come from the fact that it can serve as a guide to macroeconomic policy design. The knowledge of the position of an economy in a cycle is invaluable information and it has an important role in formulation of monetary, fiscal, and income policies. In this paper, we measure potential GDP and output gap for the Turkish Economy for the period between 1998Q1 and 2011Q4, using production function approach. We analyze the crises and the boom periods in terms of output gap. We find that according to the length of downturn and recovery periods, the worst crisis is the 2001. However, when we compare the crises according to the magnitude, the biggest collapse occurs during 2008 crisis. After recovering from 2008 crisis, once again the actual real GDP remains higher than the potential GDP for 5 successive quarters. Moreover, in this period actual real GDP is back on its old trend suggesting that the recovery period is over for Turkey and the negative effects of 2008 global crisis are not permanent.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Comparison of the Recent Crises in Turkey in terms of Output Gap|
|Keywords:||Crises, Output gap, Potential GDP, Production function approach, Turkey|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles|
|Depositing User:||turkmen goksel|
|Date Deposited:||22. Aug 2012 14:11|
|Last Modified:||03. Nov 2015 16:45|
Artus, J. R. 1977. “Measures of Potential Output in Manufacturing for Eight Industrial Countries, 1955-78.” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 1-35. Boratav, K. 2011. Türkiye İktisat Tarihi: 1908-2009. İmge Kitabevi, Ankara. Bukhari, S. ; H. A. S. Adnan; and S. U. Khan. 2008. “Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches.” State Bank of Pakistan, Working Paper Series, No. 24. Central Bank of Republic of Turkey. 1994. Statistical Data, Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, www.tcmb.gov.tr. Central Bank of Republic of Turkey. 1999-2011. Annual Reports 1998-2010, www.tcmb.gov.tr. Congdon, T. 2008. “Two Concepts of the Output Gap.” World Economics, Vol. 9, No.1, pp.147-175. Congressional Budget Office. 2001. “CBO’s Method for Estimating Potential Output: An Update.” http://www.cbo.gov. Dore, M. H. I. 1995. The Macro Dynamics of Business Cycles: A Comparative Evaluation. Blackwell Publishers, Massachusetts. Ekzen, N. 2009. Türkiye Kısa İktisat Tarihi. ODTÜ Yayıncılık, Ankara. Friedman, M. 1968. “The Role of Monetary Policy.” American Economic Review, Vol. 58 (March), pp. 1-17. Gerlach, P. 2011. “The Global Output Gap: Measurement Issues and Regional Disparities.” Bank of International Settlements Quarterly Review, June. Gollin, D. 2002. “Getting Income Shares Right.” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 110, No. 2, pp. 458-474. Kazgan, G. 2008. Türkiye Ekonomisinde Krizler (1929-2001). İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul. Lucas, R. E. Jr. 1972. Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis, in Otto Eckstein (ed.), The Econometrics of Price Determination Conference (Washington, D. C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), pp. 50–59. Okun, A. M. 1962. “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance.” in Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, Washington, D.C., pp. 98-103. Öniş, Z. 2010. “Crises and Transformation in Turkish Political Economy.” Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 45-61. Özatay, F. 2009. Finansal Krizler ve Türkiye. Doğan Kitabevi, İstanbul. Phillips, A. W. 1958. “The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change on Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957.” Economica, Vol. 25, No. 100, pp. 283-299. Plosser, C. I., and G. W. Schwert. 1979. “Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance.” Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol.10, pp. 179-186. Razin, A. and P. Loungani. 2005 “Globalization and Inflation –Output Tradeoff.” NBER Working Paper Series 11641. Rodrik, D. 2012. “The Turkish Economy after the Global Financial Crisis.” Ekonomi-tek, Vol. 1, No.1, pp. 41-61. Simşek, H. A., and N. Simşek. 2011. “Has the Turkish Economy been Less Affected by the 2008 Global Crisis: A Macroeconomic Perspective.” Research Journal of International Studies, Vol. 2 (December), pp. 168-187. Taylor, J. B. 1993. “Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice.”Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam. pp. 195–214. Tokgöz, E. 2011. Türkiye’nin İktisadi Gelişme Tarihi (1914-2011). İmaj Yayınevi, Ankara. Yörükoğlu, M., and H. Atasoy. 2010 “The Effects of the Globa