Sirucek, Martin (2012): The impact of money supply on stock prices and stock bubbles. Forthcoming in:
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_40919.pdf Download (234kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This article is focused on the effect and implication of a change in the money supply for US capital market. This market was chosen according to his part on the global market capitalization. Namely it is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which was chosen according to his long history, global sense and stabile construction. The money supply will be measured by the wider aggregate M2 and aggregate MZM (money with zero maturity). The goal of this paper is detect, if the money supply influence the stock indices in period 1967 - 2011, if the impact of both money aggregates is near the same and how the money supply influence the bubble creation.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | The impact of money supply on stock prices and stock bubbles |
English Title: | The impact of money supply on stock prices and stock bubbles |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | money supply, stock index, cointegration, unit root test, Granger test |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection |
Item ID: | 40919 |
Depositing User: | Martin Sirucek |
Date Deposited: | 13 Aug 2013 07:55 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 02:16 |
References: | ARTL, J. Kointegrace v jednorovnicových modelech. Praha: Vysoká škola ekonomická, 1997. Politická ekonomie 45 (5) [online]. s. 733 – 746. [cit. 2011-11-02]. Reasonable from WWW: <http://nb.vse.cz/~arlt/publik/A_KJM_97.pdf>. BAUMÖHL, E. Skúmanie jednosmerných závislosti medzi svetovými akciovými indexmi. [online]. Ekonomická univerzita v Bratislavě, 2008. [cit. 2012-05-20]. Dostupnupné z WWW: <http://www3.ekf.tuke.sk/konfera2008/zbornik/files/abstrakty/baumohl_a.pdf>. BERNANKE, B. Monetary policy and the stock market. [online]. The federal reserve board, October, 2003. [cit. 2012-03-27]. Dostupné z WWW: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20031002/default.htm>. BIANYING, X. Interaction of stock price of listed companies and macro-economiy of China. Wuham University of science and technologies: Master´s degree dissertation, 2004. BILSON, C. M., BRAILSFORD, T. J., HOOPER, V. J. Selecting marcoeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stocks market returns. The Australian national university: 2000. Working papers series in finance 00-04. BRAHMASRENE, T. JIRANYAKUL, K. Cointegration and causality between stock index and macroeconomic variables in a emerging markets. Academy of Acounting and Financial Studies Journal, September, 2007. CAGLI, E., C., HALC, U., TASKIN, D. Testing long run relationship between stock market and macroeconomic variables in the presence of structural breaks: The Turkish case. International research journal of finace and economics, 2010. Issue 48. ISSN: 1450-2887. DICKEY, D. A., FULLER, W. A. Distribution of the estimators for autoregresive time series with unit root test. Journal of the american statistical association, 1797. p. 427 – 431. DWYER, G., P., HAFER, R., W. Are money growth and inflation still related?. Federal reserve bank of Atlanta, 1999. Economic review, second quarter. ENDERS W. Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. New York, 1995. FAMA, E. F. Stock returns, real Activity, inflation and money. The American Economic review: 1981, 71(4): 45-565. FAMA, E. F., SCHWERT, G. W. Asset returns and inflation. Journal of financial economics, 1977. Vol. 5, pp. 115-146. FLANNERY, M. J., PROTOPAPADAKIS, A. Macroeconomic factors do influence aggregate stock returns. The review of financial studies. Oxford: Oxford university press, 2002. p. 751 – 782. FORESTI P. Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth. Munich personal RePEc archive, November 2007. MPRA paper no. 2962. GUPTA, M. C. Money supply and stock market: A probabilistic approach. Journal of finance and quantitative analysis, 9(1). 1974. HABIBULLAH, M. Money, output, stock prices in Malaysia: Futher evidence. Borneo review, 1998. HABIBULLAH, M., S. BAHARUMSHAH, A., Z. Money, output and stock prices in Malaysia: an application of the cointegration test. [online]. International Economic Journal, volume 10, numer 2, Summer 1996. [cit. 2012-01-11]. Reasonable from WWW: <http://147.46.167.195/~kiea/IEJ/vol10_2/Su7.pdf>. HAMILTON, J., D., HERRERA, A., M. Oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior: The role of monetary policy. [online]. University of San Diego, June 2000. [cit. 2012-05-16]. Dostupné z WWW:< http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/bgwjun01.pdf>. HANOUSEK, J., FILER, R. K. The relationship between economic factors and equity markets in Central Europe. Economics of transition, 8 (3) 2000. 623-638. HATRÁK, M. Ekonometria. Bratislava : IURA EDITION, 2007. ISBN 978-80-8078- 150-7. HUSAIN, F., MAHMOOD, T. Monetary expasion and stock returns in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development review, winter 1999. s. 769 – 776. HYSEK, J. Základní finanční instrumenty. [online]. 16. února 2009. [cit. 2011-03-20]. Reasonable from WWW: <http://investicedoakcii.blogspot.com/>. CHROMEC, M. Dlouhodobé efekty monetární politiky: může ČNB ovlivnit ekonomický růst? [online]. Brno: Masarykova univerzita - Centrum výzkumu konkurenční schopnosti české ekonomiky, 2006. [cit. 2011-12-06]. ISSN: 1801-4496. Dostupné z WWW: <http://is.muni.cz/do/1456/soubory/oddeleni/centrum/papers/wp2006-12.pdf>. IOANNIDIS, CH., KONTONIKAS, A. The impact of monetary policy on stock prices. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30 (1). pp. 33-53. ISSN 0161-8938. JAFFE, J. F., MANDELKER, G. The Fisher effect for riskyassets: An empirical investigation. The Journal of finance, 1976. Vol. 31, pp. 447-458. JENG, C., C., BUTLER, J., S., LIU, J., T. The informational efficiency of the stock market: The international evidence of 1921 - 1930. Economics letter, 1990. pp. 157-162. JOCHEC, L. Analýza závislostí ve vývoji akciových trhů a ekonomiky. Mendelova univerzita v Brně, 2010. KANDIR, S., Y. Macroeconomic variables, firm characteristic and stock returns: evidence from Turkey. International research journal of finance and economics, 2008. Issue 16. ISSN: 1450-2887. KERAN, M. W. Expectations, money and the stock market. Federal reserve bank of St. Louis. January, 1971. KIMURA, T., KORUZOMI T. Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parametr uncertainty. Finance and economics discussiom series, 2003. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). KING. B. Market and industry factors in stock price behaviour. Journal of business, University of Chicago Press. January 1966. Vol. 39. Page 139. KOHOUT, P. Investiční strategie pro třetí tisíciletí. 6. vyd. Praha: Grada Publishing 2010. ISBN: 978-80-247-3315-9. KORDA, J. Kauzalita jako metodologický problém ekonomie. Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze: Electronic journal for philosophy ,2007. [online]. [cit. 2011-11-09]. Dostupné z WWW: < http://nb.vse.cz/kfil/elogos/science/korda2007.pdf >. KRAFT, J. KRAFT, A. Determinants of commonstock price: a time series analysis. The journal of finance, 32 (2). 1977. KULHÁNEK, L., MATUZSEK, S. Peněžní zásoba a vývoj akciových trhů v České republice, Slovenské republice a ve vybraných zemích. Mezinárodní vědecká konference Národohospodárskej fakulty Ekonomické univerzity v Bratislavě „Znalostná ekonomika – nové výzvy pre nárohospodársku vedu“. Ekonomická univerzita v Bratislavě 2006. KUMAR, A. An empirical analysis of causal relationship between stock market and macroeconomic variables in India. International Journal of Computer Science & Management Studies, May 2011. Vol. 11, Issue 01. ISSN: 2231-5268. MALLIARIS, A., G., URRUTIA, J., L. An empirical investigation among real monetary and financial variables. Economics letter, 1991. pp. 151-158. MASKAY, B. Analyzing the Effect of Change in Money Supply on Stock Prices, The Park Place Economist: 2007, Vol. 15. MAYSAMI, R. C. KOH, T. S. . A Vector Error Correction Model of the Singapore Stock Market. International Review of Economics and Finance, 2000. MAYSAMI, R., C., HOWE, L., C., HAMZAH, M., A. Relationship between mocroeconomic variables and stock market indices: cointegration evidence from stock exchange of Singapore´s all-s sector indices. [online]. JournalPengurusan, 2004. [cit. 2012-01-15]. Dostupné z WWW: <http://www.ukm.my/penerbit/jurnal_pdf/Jp24-03.pdf>. McCANDLESS, G., T. WEBER, W., E. Some monetary facts. Federal reserve bank of Minneapolis, 1995. Quarterly review 19, no. 3:2-11. MOOKERJE, R. Monetary policy and the information efficiency of the stock market: The evidence from many countries. Applied economics, November 1987. ISSN: 1521-1532. MUSÍLEK, P. Změny makroekonomických veličin a akciové kurzy. Finance a úvěr, 47, 1997, č.3. NELSON, C. R. Inflation and the rates of return on common sock. Journal of finance, 31. pp. 471-483. ISSN: 1540-6261. NÝVLTOVÁ, R., REŽŇÁKOVÁ, M. Mezinárodní kapitálové trhy: zdroj financování. 1. vyd. Praha: Grada Publishing, a.s., 2007. 224. s. ISBN: 978-80-247-1922-1. PEARCE, D. K., ROLEY, V. V. Stock prices and economic news. The journal of business, 58 (1). 1985. POIRÉ N. P. The money effect. Barron´s business and financial weekly magazine: August, 2000. POŠTA, V. Role fundamentálních faktorů při analýze chování Pražské burzy. Praha: Vysoká škola ekonomická, 2010. [online]. [cit. 2011-11-30]. Dostupné z WWW: <www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=eam&pdf=74.pdf>. RAPACH, D. E., WOHAR, M. E. RANGVID, J. Macro variables and international stock return predictability. International journal of forecasting, 2005. ROZEFF, M. S. Money and stock prices, Market efficiency and the lag in effect of monetary policy. Journal of Financial Economics, 1974, 1. SEWELL, M. Longitudinal data analysis.[online]. Cambridge, 2001. [cit. 2012-06-14]. Dostupné z WWW: <http://martinsewell.com/causality/Zorn01.pdf>. SHAOPING, CH. Positivist analysis on effect of monetary policy on stock price behaviors. Proceedings of 2008 conference on regional economy and sustainable developmentm, 2008. ISBN 978-0-646-50352-3. SHOSTAK, F. Making sense of money supply data. December 17, 2003. [online]. [cit. 2011-05-13].Reason able from WWW: <http://www.wissensnavigator.com/documents/MoneySupplyShostak.pdf >. SPRINKEL, B. Money and stock prices. Illinois: Richard D Irwin, 1964. ISBN: 978-0256005134. THORNTON, D. L., BATTEN, D. S. Lag length selection and Granger causality. Federal reserve bank of St. Louis, 1984. [online]. Working paper 1984-001A. [cit. 2012-06-04]. Dostupné z WWW: <http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/1984/1984-001.pdf>. TOMŠÍK, V., VIKTOROVÁ, D. Peníze a hospodářský růst v české republice – je mezi nimi vztah? Praha: Vysoká škola ekonomická, 2005. [online]. [cit. 2011-11-02]. Dostupné z WWW: <http://panda.hyperlink.cz/cestapdf/pdf05c4/tomsik.pdf>. URBAIN, J. P. Model selection criteria and Granger causality test. University of Liége, Holland , 1989. Economics Letter, n. 29, pp. 317 - 320. VESELÁ, J. Investovaní na kapitálových trzích. Praha: ASPI, a. s., 2007, 704 s. ISBN 978-80-7357-297-6. VESELÁ, J. Český kapitálový trh pohledem globální fundamentální analýzy. Sborník příspěvků z mezinárodní vědecké konference „Evropské finanční systémy 2010“. Masarykova univerzita Brno, 2010. ISBN 978-80-210-5182-9. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/40919 |