Analyse de la Relation Guerres Civiles et Croissance Économique

Kimbambu Tsasa Vangu, Jean - Paul (2012): Analyse de la Relation Guerres Civiles et Croissance Économique.

Abstract

This paper investigates and tests empirically the relationship between military expenditure, civil wars and economic performance in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo). Romer – Taylor model is estimated. The Econometric estimates show that there is a positive effect of military expenditure on economic growth and positive relationship in the short term and negative relationship in the long run between the presence of civil wars and economic growth. A new concept was introduced in the analysis to explain the true causes of the civil war in DR Congo, this is the R – GGC.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Civil Wars and Economic Growth in DRC
• Language: French
• Keywords: performances économiques, guerres civiles, dépenses militaires
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E39 - Other

References

AIZENMAN Joshua and Reuven GLICK, 2006, Military expenditure, threats, and growth, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, vol. 15, No. 2, 129 – 155.

ALESINA Alberto and Roberto PEROTTI, 1994, The Political Economics of Growth: A selective survey and some New Results, World Bank Economic review, Vol. 8, No. 3, 351 – 71.

ALEXANDER Robert, 1990, The impact of defence spending on economic growth: a multi-sectoral approach to defence spending and economic growth with evidence from developed economies, Defence Economics, vol. 2, No. 1, 39 – 55.

ANTONAKIS Nicholas, 1997, Military expenditures and economic growth in Greece, 1960–1990, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 34, No. 1, 89 – 100.

ARAUJO JUNIOR Ari Francisco de and Cláudio D. SHIKIDA, 2008, Military Expenditures, External Threats and Economic Growth, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 15, No. 16, 1 – 7.

ARROW Kenneth, 1992, The Basic Economics of Arms Reduction, in Isard et Anderton eds., Economics of Arms Reduction and the Peace Process, Vol. 6, No. 3, 57 – 67, North – Holland, Amsterdam.

ATESOGLU Sonmez. and Michael MUELLER, 1990, Defence spending and economic growth, Defence Economics, vol. 2, No. 1, 89100.

ATESOGLU Sonmez., 2002, Defense spending promotes aggregate output in the United States – evidence from cointegration analysis, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 13, No. 1, 55 – 60.

ATTANASIO Picci and A. SCORCU, 2000, Saving, Growth and Investment: A macroeconomic analysis using a panel of countries, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 82, No. 2, 182 – 212.

AZAM Jean-Paul, David BEVAN, Paul COLLIER, Stefan DERCON, Jan GUNNING and Sanjay PRADHAM, 1994, Some Economic consequences of the transition from civil war to peace, Working Paper, No. WPS1392, The World Bank.

BAD [Banque Africaine pour le Développement], 2006, statistiques choisies sur les pays africains, volume XXV.

BARAN Paul & Paul SWESSY (1966): Monopoly Capital, An Essay On The American Economic and Social Order, Monthly Review Press, New York [El capital monopolista, Siglo XXI, México, 1972 Ensayo sobre el orden económico y social de los Estados Unidos, Ed. Siglo XXI, México, traducción de Arminda Chávez de Yáñez, 1974 (1ª edición, 1968), 311 pp.].

BARRO Robert, 1990, Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, S103 – S125.

BARRO Robert, 1997, Les facteurs de la croissance économique : une analyse transversale par pays, MIT Press, Cambridge.

BCC [Banque Centrale du Congo], 1980 ; 1985 ; 1990 ; 2000 ; 2003 – 2004 ; 2005, Rapports annuels, Kinshasa. Certaines données sont disponibles sur http://www.bcc.cd.

BEL Germà and Ferran ELIAS – MORENO, 2009, Institutional determinants of military spending, Research Institute of Applied Economics, Working paper 22, 1 – 32.

BENOIT Emile, 1973, Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries (Boston: Lexington Books).

BENOIT Emile, 1978, Growth and defense in developing countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 26, No. 2, 271 – 287.

BIRDI Alvin and J. Paul DUNNE, 2001, An econometric analysis of military spending and economic growth in South Africa, Middlesex University Business School (February), London NW4 4BT.

BISWAS Basudeb and Rati RAM, 1986, Military expenditures and economic growth in less developed countries: an augmented model and further evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 34, No. 2, 361 – 372.

BM [Banque Mondiale], 2004, DRC : country status report on education, human development III, report No. 30860 – ZR. BRAECKMAN Colette, 1992, Le dinosaure, le Zaïre de Mobutu, éd. Fayard, Paris.

BRENNAN Rick, Ben COGHLAN, David DOFARA, Pascal NGOY, Brad OTTO and Tony STEWART, 2004, Mortality in the DRC: results from Nationwide Survey, IRC [International Rescue Committee].

CHAUVET Lisa., 2008, Conflit et développement, Université de Marne la vallée.

CHEN Chien-Hsun, 1993, Causality between Defence Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Mainland China, Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 20, No. 6, 37 – 44.

COLLIER Paul and Anke HOEFFLER, 1998, On Economic Causes of Civil War, Oxford Economic, Papers No. 50, 563 – 73.

COLLIER Paul and Anke HOEFFLER, 1999, On the economic consequences of civil war, Oxford Economic, Paper No. 51, 168 – 183.

COLLIER Paul and Anke HOEFFLER, 2000, Greed and Grievance in Civil War, World Bank Working Paper No. 2355 (May).

COLLIER Paul and Anke HOEFFLER, 2002a, Greed and Grievance in civil war, Forthcoming, center for economic policy research, working paper.

COLLIER Paul and Anke HOEFFLER, 2002b, On the incidence of civil war in Africa, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 46, No. 1, 13 – 28.

COLLIER Paul and Anke HOEFFLER, 2004, Greed and grievance in civil war, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 56, No. 4, 563 – 595.

COLLIER Paul and Anke HOEFFLER, 2006, Civil War, Department of Economics, Oxford University.

COLLIER Paul and Anke HOEFFLER, 2007, Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 69, No. 1, 1 – 27.

COLLIER Paul et Anke HOEFFLER, 2007, Dépenses militaires et les risques de coups d’Etat, Centre pour l’étude des économies africaines, Université d’Oxford.

COLLIER Paul, 1998, “The political economy of ethnicity”, in Boris Pleskovic and Joseph E. Stiglitz (eds), Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, Washington, DC : World Bank.

COLLIER Paul, 1998, On economic causes of civil war, Oxford Economic, Paper, No. 50, 563 – 573.

COLLIER Paul, Anke HOEFFLER and Mans SÖDERBORN, 2004, On the duration of civil war, Journal of peace research, Vol. 41, No. 3, 253 – 273.

COLLIER Paul, Lance ELLIOT, Harvard HEGRE, Anke HOEFFLER, Marta REYNAL-QUEROL et Nicholas SAMBANIS, 2003, Breaking the conflict trap: civil war and development policy, Oxford and Washington DC: Oxford University Press and World Bank.

COULOMB Fanny et Renaud BELLAIS, 2008, The fight of a "citizen economist" for peace and prosperity : Keynes and the issues of international security, forthcoming publication in Defence and Peace Economics, Fall, vol. 19, No. 5, 361 – 371.

COULOMB Fanny, 2004, les évolutions de l’analyse économique de la défense dans le contexte de la globalisation, Arès No. 53, Volume XXI, Fascule 1, 11 – 22.

DAVIDSON, R., and J. MACKINNON, 1985, The Interpretation of Tests Statistics, Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 18, 38 – 57.

DE SOYSA Indra, 2001, “Greed & Grievance : Data Proxies and Alternative Specifications”, Paper prepared for the presentation at the World Bank, PRIO, Uppsala workshop on Conflit Data2, June 8 – 10, 2001 in Uppsala, Sweden.

DEGER Saadet and Ron SMITH, 1983, Military expenditures and growth in less developed countries, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 27, No. 2, 335 – 353.

DEGER Saadet and Somnath SEN, 1995, Military Expenditure and Developing Countries, Chapter 11 of Hartley and Sandler (1995), 275 – 307.

DEGER Saadet, 1986, Economic development and defense expenditures, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 35, No. 1, 179–196.

DOUCOURE Fodiyé Bakary, 2007, Méthodes économétriques, Ecoles de Commerce et d’Ingénieurs, UCAD, Dakar.

DOYLE Michael and Nicholas SAMBANIS, 1999, Peace building: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis, October, working paper, Princeton University.

DUNNE J. Paul and M UYE, 2009, Military Spending and Development, Chapter in Tan, Andrew (forthcoming 2009) The Global Arms Trade. Europa / Routledge (London).

DUNNE J. Paul and Ron SMITH, 2001, Military expenditure growth and investment, Birkbeck College, Gresse st; London, W1PLLL (November).

DUNNE, J. Paul and F COULOMB, 2009, Peace, War and International Security: Economic Theories, Chapter 2 in Jacques Fontanel and Manas Chatterji (eds) War Peace and Security. Emerald: Bingley, 13 – 36.

DUPIERREUX Anne, Quand le viol devient arme de guerre, Oxfam-Belgique.

ELBADAWI Ibrahim and Nicholas SAMBANIS, 2001, How much war will we see? Estimating the incidence of civil war in161 countries, Development Research Group, The World Bank.

FAINI Riccardo, Patricia ANNEZ and Lance TAYLOR, 1984, Defence spending, economic growth, and growth evidence among countries over time, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 32, No. 3, 487 – 498.

FEARON James and David LAITIN, 1999, Weak States, Rough Terrain, and Large - Scale Ethnic Violence Since 1945, Manuscript, Department of Political Science, Stanford University (8/19/99).

FEDER Gershon, 1982, On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, vol. 12, No. 1-2, 59 – 73.

FMI [Fonds Monétaire International], 2005, Country report, Octobre.

FOREST David, 2004, Causes et motivation de la guerre civile au Libéria, Essai de la maîtrise en relations internationales, Institut québécois des hautes études internationales, Université Laval.

GERACE Michael, 2002, US Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Spectral Methods, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 13, No. 1, 1 – 11.

GREENE William, 1997, Econometric Analysis, 3rd edition, New York : Prentice Hall.

GROBAR Lisa and PORTER, Richard, 1989, Defense Spending and Economic Growth in LDCs, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 33, No. 2, 318 – 345.

GUICHARD Renelle, 2008, Edmund SILBERNER, historien et penseur des rapports entre économie et guerre, archive hal – 00292966.

HALE Charles, Fethi BELYAKDOUMI, Laura COBEY, Raselidah ONDEKO and Michael DESPINES, 2001, Mortality in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo: Results from Eleven Mortality Surveys, IRC [International Rescue Committee].

HALICIOGLU Ferda, 2004, Defense spending and economic growth in Turkey: an empirical application of new macroeconomic theory, Revue Middle-East Economics and Finance, vol. 2, No. 3, 193 – 201.

HEGRE Havard, Tanja ELLINGSEN, Nils Petter GLEDITSCH and Scott GATES, 1999, Towards a Democratic Civil Peace? Opportunity, Grievance, and Civil War, 1816-1992, paper presented at the World Bank Conference on The Economics of Political and Criminal Violence (February 16 – 22).

HENDRY David and J.F. RICHARD, 1982, On the Formulation of Empirical Models in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 20, 3 – 33.

HENDRY David and J.-F. RICHARD, 1983, The Econometric Analysis of Economic Time Series, International Statistical Review, vol. 51, 111 – 163.

HENDRY David, A. R. PAGAN, and D. SARGAN, 1984, Dynamic Specification, in The Handbook of Econometrics, ed. by Z. Griliches, and M. Intriligator, p. chap. 18. Amsterdam.

HERRERA Rémy, 1998, Dépenses militaires : quels effets sur les finances publiques et la croissance économique ?, Revue d’économie politique (juillet), vol. 108, No. 4, 503 – 530.

HOWARD Michael and John KING, 1989, A History of Marxian Economics: Volume I, 1883 – 1929, London: Macmillan.

HOWARD Michael and John KING, 1992, A History of Marxian Economics: Volume II, 1929 – 1990, Princeton University Press, Princeton.

HUANG Chi and Alex MINTZ, 1991, Defence expenditures and economic growth: the externality effect, Defence Economics, vol. 3, No. 2, 35 – 40.

KALDOR Mary, 1999, New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1 – 12.

KAPLAN Robert, 1994, The Coming Anarchy: How Scarcity, Crime, Overpopulation, Tribalism, and Disease Are Rapidly Destroying the Social Fabric of Our Planet, Atlantic Monthly, vol. 273, February 1994, pp. 44 – 76.

KEEN David, 1998, Economic functions of violence in civil wars, Adelphi, Paper 320, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

KEYNES John Maynard, 1978, How to pay for the war, In The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, XXII.

KIDRON Michael. 1967, A Permanent Arms Economy, International Socialism 28, Spring. Disponible sur at marxists.anu.edu.au/archive/kidron/works/1967/xx/permarms.htm.

KNIGHT Malcom, Norman LOAYZA and Delano VILLANUEVA, 1996, The Peace Dividend. Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth, IMF Policy Research Working Paper 1577.

KOLLIAS Christos and Stelios MAKRYDAKIS, 1997, Defense Spending and Growth in Turkey 1954 – 1993: A Causal Analysis, Journal of Defense and Peace Economics, vol. 8, No., 189 – 204.

KOLLIAS Christos, Nikolaos MYLONIDIS, and Suzanna-Maria PALEOLOGOU, 2007, A Panel Data Analysis of the Nexus Between Defense Spending and Growth in the European Union, Defense and Peace Economics, vol. 18, No. 5, 75 – 85.

LANDAU Daniel, 1994, The Impact of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries, Defense and Peace Economics, vol. 5, No. 3, 205 – 220.

LANDAU Daniel, 1996, Is one of the peace dividends negative? Military expenditure and economic growth in the wealthy OECD countries, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 36, No. 2, 183 – 195.

LANGE Jean, 1985, les principales fonctions économiques, Foucher, Paris, 1985.

LANOTTE Olivier, 2010, Chronologie de la République démocratique du Congo/Zaïre (1960-1997), Online Encyclopedia of Mass Violence, 1 – 35.

LICKLIDER Roy, 1995, The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945-1993, American Political Science Review (September), Vol. 89, No. 3, 681 – 690.

MARCHAL Roland et Christine MESSIANT, 2002, De l’avidité des rebelles : l’analyse économique de la guerre selon Paul Collier, Critique internationale, Paris.

Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2010, Indice Ibrahim de la gouvernance africaine 2010 : Synthèse, édition révisée (novembre 2010).

NSHUE Alexandre, 2004, Les guerres et la gouvernance. Qui est le plus responsable de la crise en RdC ?, Economie et Développement – CRES No. 1, Kinshasa.

NSHUE Alexandre, 2008, Fragilités des performances économico-financières de la RdC de 2002 à 2008, CRES, Kinshasa.

ÖZSOY Onur, 2000, The Defence Growth Relation: Evidence from Turkey, In: The Economics of Regional Security: NATO, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, edited by Jurgen Brauer and Keith Hartley (Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers), 139 – 159.

PHANEUF Louis et Etienne WASMER, 2005, une étude économétrique de l’impact des dépenses publiques et des prélèvements fiscaux sur l’activité économique, Rapport de projet 2005 RP – 20, Montréal.

PIVETTI Massimo, 1989, Military Expenditure and Economic Analysis: A Review Article, Contributions to Political Economy, Vol 8 No. 1, 55-67.

PIVETTI Massimo, 1992, Military Spending as a Burden on Growth: An Underconsumptionist Critique, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol 16 No. 4, 373-384.

PIVETTI Massimo, 1994, Effective Demand, 'Marxo-Marginalism' and the Economics of Military, Spending: Rejoinder, Cambridge Journal of Economics; 18(5), October 1994, 523-27.

PNUD/RD Congo [Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement], 2004, Rapport sur les conflits armés en République Démocratique du Congo : le rôle des facteurs économiques et leçons pour la reconstruction.

PNUD/RD Congo [Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement], 2000, Rapport sur la Gouvernance pour le Développement Humain en République Démocratique du Congo.

RAM Rati, 1986, Government size and economic growth: a new framework and some evidence from cross – section and time-series data, American Economic Review, vol. 76, No. 1, 191 – 203.

RAM Rati, 1995, Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth, In K. Hartley & T. Sandler (Eds.), Handbook of Defense Economics, vol. 1, No. 2, 251 – 273.

RASLER Karen and William THOMPSON, 1988, Defense burdens, capital formation, and economic growth, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 32, No. 1, 61 – 86.

ROMER David, 2000, Keynesian macroeconomics without the LM curve, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 14, No. 2, 149 – 169.

SACHS Jeffrey and Andrew WARNER, 1997, Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies, Journal of African Economies, vol. 6, No. 3, 335 – 376.

SADC [South African Devlopment Community], 2007, la Réalisation des Critères de Convergence Macroéconomique SADC en République Démocratique du Congo: Revue de Performance et Plan de Mise en Œuvre.

SAMBANIS Nicholas, 2001, Civil Wars: Do Ethnic and Non-Ethnic Wars Have the Same Causes?, Forthcoming in Journal of Conflict Resolution (February).

SERFATI Claude, 2004, Impérialisme et militarisme au vingt – et – unième siècle, Éditions Page2, Lausanne, 2004.

SERFATI Claude, 2009, Une économie politique de la sécurité, éd. Karthala, collection “homes et societies”, Paris.

SEZGIN Selami, 1997, Country survey X: defence spending in Turkey, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 8, No. 4, 381 – 409.

SEZGIN Selami, 1999, Defence expenditure and economic growth in Turkey and Greece: a disaggregated analysis, Middlesex University Business School, London, June 11 – 12.

SEZGIN Selami, 2000, A causal analysis of Turkish defence growth relationships: 1924 – 1996, Ankara University Journal of Political Sciences, vol. 55, No. é, 113 – 124.

SEZGIN Selami, 2001, An empirical analysis of Turkey’s defence-growth relationships with a multi-equation model (1956 – 1994), Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 12, No. 1, 69 – 81.

SINGER David and Melvin SMALL, 1994, Correlates of War Project – International and Civil War Data 1816-1992, Ann Arbor, MI: ICPSR SIPRI. SIPRI Yearbook [various years ; http://editors.sipri.se/pubs/yearb.html].

SIPRI [The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute], 2002, Yearbook of World Armaments and Disarmaments, Oxford : Oxford University Press.

SMITH Ron, 1980, Military expenditure and investment in OECD countries, 1954 – 1973, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 4, No. 1, 19 – 32.

SOLOW Robert, 1956, A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, QJE, Vol. 70, No. 1, 65 – 94.

STROUP Michael and Jac HECKELMAN, 2001, Size of the military sector and economic growth: A panel data analysis of Africa and latin America, Journal of applied economic, vol. IV, No. 2 (November), 329 – 360.

TAYLOR John, 2000, Teaching modern macroeconomics at the principles level, American Economic Review, vol. 90, No. 2, 90 – 94.

TEMPLE Jonathan, 1999, The New Growth Evidence, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 37, No. 1, 112 – 156.

TI [Transparency International], 2008 – 2010, Rapport mondial sur la corruption.

TIWARI Avil Kumar and Premchand TIWARI, 2010, Defense expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from India, Journal of Cambidge Studies, vol. 5, No. 2 – 3, 117 – 131.

TSASA Jean-Paul, 2009, Analyse de la relation guerre et croissance économique en RDC, Département des sciences économiques, UPC, Kinshasa.

WARD Michael, David DAVIS, Mohan PENUBARTI, Sheen RAJMAIRA and Mali COCHRANE, 1991, Military spending in India – country survey I, Defence Economics, vol. 3, No. 1, 41 – 63.

WIJEWEERA Albert and Matthew WEBB, 2010, Using the Feder-Ram and military Keynesian models to examine the link between defense spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka, College of Arts & Sciences, Petroleum Institute, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

YAMBUYA Pierre et Walter BAUWENS, 1991, Zaïre : l’abattoir. Un pilote de Mobutu parle, éd. Epo, Bruxelles.

YILDIRIM Julide and Selami SEZGIN, 2002, A System Estimation of the Defense-Growth Relation in Turkey, In: Arming the South: The Economics of Military Expenditure, Arms Production and arms Trade in Developing Countries, edited by Jurgen Brauer, J. Paul Dunne (London: Palgrave Publishing), 319 – 325.