The Role of Social Factors in Explaining Crime

Hamzah, Siti Nur Zahara and Lau, Evan (2013): The Role of Social Factors in Explaining Crime.

Abstract

Utilizing Malaysia data from 1973 to 2008, the study reveals that crime can be influenced by population, fertility, unemployment, and GDP in either the long-run or short-run period. This study also further analysed beyond sample estimations of the variables involved and found that although violent crime can be explained in the short-run only from the VECM analysis, it is found to be explained by other explanatory variables in the long-run of beyond sample for at least 50 years ahead. It is important for policy makers to focus in both social structure and economic conditions to help prevent crime in the long-run.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: fertility; violent; property, unemployment, VECM; causality
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply; K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

References

Akerlof, G. A. (1997) “Social Distance and Social Decisions” Econometrica, 65, 1005-27.

Baharom, A. H. and Habibullah, A. S. (2008) “Is Crime Cointegrated with Income and Unemployment? A Panel Data Analysis on Selected European Countries” MPRA Paper No. 11927, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Baharom, A. H. and Habibullah, M. S. (2009) “Crime and Income Inequality: The Case of Malaysia” Journal of Politics and Law, 2, 55-70.

Becker, G. S. (1964) Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Columbia University Press: New York, NY.

Becker, G. S. (1968) “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach” Journal of Political Economy, 76, 1169-217.

Becker, G. S. (1971) The Economics of Discrimination, (2nd Eds.), University of Chicago Press: Chicago.

Becker, G. S. (1973) “A Theory of Marriage: Part I” Journal of Political Economy, 81, 813-46.

Becker, G. S. (1974) “A Theory of Marriage: Part II”, Journal of Political Economy, 82, S11-S26.

Clarke, K. A. (2005) “The Phantom Menace: Omitted Variables Bias in Econometric Research”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 22, 341-352.

Clarke, K. A. (2009) “Return of the Phantom Menace: Omitted Variable Bias in Political Research”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 26, 46-66.

Clarke, K. A. (2012) “More Phantom Than Menace”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 29, 239-241.

Corman, H., Joyce, T., and Lovitch, N. (1997) “Crime, Deterrence and the Business Cycle in New York City: A VAR Approach”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 695–700.

DiIulio, Jr. J. J. (1996) “Help Wanted: Economists, Crime and Public Policy” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, 43-67.

Donohue, J. and Levitt, S. (2001) “The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116, 379-420.

Economic Planning Unit, (2004), “Malaysia: 30 years of poverty reduction, growth and racial harmony,” Paper presented at Scaling up Poverty Reduction: A Global Learning Process and Conference, 25-27 May, Shanghai.

Ehrlich, I. (1973) “Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation” Journal of Political Economy, 38, 521-65.

Eide, E. (1994) Economics of Crime: Deterrence and the Rational Offender. North-Holland: Amsterdam.

Farrington, D. P. (1996) “The Development of Offending and Antisocial Behaviour from Childhood to Adulthood”, In Cordella, P. and Siegel, L. (eds.), Readings in Contemporary Criminological Theory. Boston: Northeast University Press.

Granger, C. W. J. (2004) “Time Series Analysis, Cointegration, and Applications” American Economic Review, 94, 421-25.

Hogan, D. P. and Kitagawa, E. M. (1985) “The Impact of Social Status, Family Structure, and Neighborhood on the Fertility of Black Adolescents” American Journal of Sociology, 90, 825-52.

Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors” Journal of Economic Dynamics Control, 12, 231-54.

Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990) “Maximum Likelihoods Estimated and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.

Johhansen, S. (1995) Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press: New York.

Ku, L., Sonenstein, F. L. and Pleck, J. H. (1993) “Neighborhood, Family and Work: Influences On the Premarital Behaviors of Adolescent Males” Social Force, 72, 479-503.

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992) “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root. How Sure are We that Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,” Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.

Levitt, S. D. (2004) “Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 163-190.

Masih, A. M. M. and Masih, R. (1995) “Investigating the Robustness of Tests of the Market Efficiency Hypothesis: Contribution from Cointegration Techniques on the Canadian Floating Dollar”, Applied Financial Economics, 5, 139-150.

Masih, A. M. M. and Masih, R. (1996) “Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Different Categories of Crime and Their Socioeconomic Determinants: Evidence from Australia”, Applied Economics, 28, 1093–104.

Sidhu, A. (2005) “The Rise of Crime in Malaysia: An Academic and Statistical Analysis,” Journal of the Kuala Lumpur Royal Malaysia Police College, 4, 1-28.

Sims, C. A. (1982) “Policy Analysis with Econometric Models”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 13, 107-164.

South, S. J. and Crowder, K. D. (1999) “Neighbourhood Effects on Family Formation: Concentrated Poverty and Beyond”, American Sociological Review, 64, 113-132.

South, S. J. and Lloyd, K. M. (1992a) “Marriage Markets and Non Marital Fertility in United States”, Demography, 29, 247-264.

South, S. J. and Lloyd, K. M. (1992b) “Marriage Opportunities and Family Formation: Further Implications of Imbalanced Sex Ratios”, Journal of Marriage and Family, Vol. 54, pp. 440-451.

South, S. J. and Messner, S. F. (2000) “Crime and Demography: Multiple Linkages, Reciprocal Relations”, Annual Review of Sociology, 26, 83-106.

Stigler, S. M. (1986) The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900, Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA.

Tang, C. F (2009) “The Linkages among Inflation, Unemployment and Crime Rates in Malaysia”, International Journal of Economics and Management, 3, 50-61.

Tang, C. F. and Lean, H. H. (2007) “Will Inflation Increase Crime Rate? New Evidence from Bounds and Modified Wald Tests”, Global Crime, 8, 311–323.

Tang, C. F. and Lean, H. H. (2009) “New Evidence from the Misery Index in the Crime Function”, Economics Letters, 102, 112-115.