Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?

Ratti, Ronald A and Vespignani, Joaquin L. (2012): Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?

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Abstract

There have been substantial increases in liquidity in recent years and real oil prices have almost returned to the high levels achieved before the Global financial crisis. Unanticipated increases in global real M2 lead to statistically significant increases in real oil prices. The cumulative impact of global real M2 on the real price of crude oil is important in the recovery of oil price over 2009 to 2011.

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