Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga

Lahvicka, Jiri (2013): Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga.

Abstract

In the top Czech ice hockey competition “Extraliga”, 14 geographically close teams compete during a regular season in a pure round-robin tournament. However, the eventual champion is determined in the additional playoff stage; the regular season just decides which teams qualify for the playoffs and how these teams are seeded. This paper uses a Monte Carlo simulation to show that although the additional playoff stage heavily favors higher-seeded teams and consists of a lot of matches, it lowers the probability of the best team becoming a champion and thus increases seasonal uncertainty.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: seasonal uncertainty, Monte Carlo, ice hockey, tournament design
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism

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