Bar-Eli, Michael and Azar, Ofer H. and Ritov, Ilana and Keidar-Levin, Yael and Schein, Galit (2005): Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks. Forthcoming in: Journal of Economic Psychology
Download (214kB) | Preview
In soccer penalty kicks, goalkeepers choose their action before they can clearly observe the kick direction. An analysis of 286 penalty kicks in top leagues and championships worldwide shows that given the probability distribution of kick direction, the optimal strategy for goalkeepers is to stay in the goal's center. Goalkeepers, however, almost always jump right or left. We propose the following explanation for this behavior: because the norm is to jump, norm theory (Kahneman and Miller, 1986) implies that a goal scored yields worse feelings for the goalkeeper following inaction (staying in the center) than following action (jumping), leading to a bias for action. The omission bias, a bias in favor of inaction, is reversed here because the norm here is reversed - to act rather than to choose inaction. The claim that jumping is the norm is supported by a second study, a survey conducted with 32 top professional goalkeepers. The seemingly biased decision making is particularly striking since the goalkeepers have huge incentives to make correct decisions, and it is a decision they encounter frequently. Finally, we discuss several implications of the action/omission bias for economics and management.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Institution:||Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and The Hebrew University of Jerusalem|
|Original Title:||Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks|
|Keywords:||Decision Making; Uncertainty; Choice Behavior; Sport Psychology; Behavioral Economics; Action Bias; Omission Bias; Commission Bias; Action Effect; Inaction Effect; Actor Effect; Economic Psychology; Heuristics and Biases; Soccer; Goalkeepers; Penalty Kicks; Risk; Norms|
|Subjects:||Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z13 - Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology ; Social and Economic Stratification
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C9 - Design of Experiments > C93 - Field Experiments
A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A12 - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
|Depositing User:||Ofer Azar|
|Date Deposited:||15. Aug 2007|
|Last Modified:||18. Feb 2014 06:59|
Anderson, C. J. (2003). The psychology of doing nothing: Forms of decision avoidance result from reason and emotion. Psychological Bulletin, 129, 139-167. Baron, J. (1994). Thinking and Deciding (2nd ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press. Bereby-Meyer, Y., and Erev, I. (1998). On learning to become a successful loser: A comparison of alternative abstractions of learning in the loss domain. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 42, 266-286. Chiappori, P. A., Levitt, S., and Groseclose, T. (2002). Testing mixed-strategy equilibria when players are heterogeneous: The case of penalty kicks in soccer. American Economic Review, 92, 1138-1151. Davis, C. G., Lehman, D. R., Wortman, C. B., Silver, R. C., and Thompson, S. C. (1995). The undoing of traumatic life events. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 109-124. Kahneman, D., and Miller, D. T. (1986). Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. Psychological Review, 93, 136-153. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1982). The psychology of preferences. Scientific American, 246, 160-173. Kordes-de Vaal, J. H. (1996). Intention and omission bias: Omission perceived as nondecisions. Acta Psychologica, 93, 161-172. Kruger, J., Wirtz, D., and Miller, D. T. (2005). Counterfactual thinking and the first instinct fallacy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 88, 725-735. Landman, J. (1987). Regret and elation following action and inaction: Affective reactions to positive versus negative outcomes. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 13, 524-536. McMorris, T., and Colenso, S. (1996). Anticipation of professional goalkeepers when facing right- and left-footed penalty kicks. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 82, 931-934. Miller, D. T., and Taylor, B. R. (1995). Counterfactual thought, regret, and superstition: How to avoid kicking yourself. In N. J. Roese and J. M. Olson (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 305-331). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Morris, A., and Burwitz, L. (1989). Anticipation and movement strategies in elite soccer goalkeepers at penalty kicks. Journal of Sports Sciences, 7, 79-80. Palacios-Huerta, I. (2003). Professionals play minimax. Review of Economic Studies, 70, 395-415. Patt, A., and Zeckhauser, R. (2000). Action bias and environmental decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 21, 45-72. Pieters, R., and Zeelenberg, M. (2005). On bad decisions and deciding badly: When intention-behavior inconsistency is regrettable. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 97, 18-30. Ritov, I., and Baron, J. (1990). Reluctance to vaccinate: omission bias and ambiguity. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 3, 263-277. Ritov, I., and Baron, J. (1992). Status-quo and omission biases. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 49-61. Ritov, I., and Baron, J. (1994). Biases in decisions about compensation for misfortune: the role of expectation. European Journal of Social Psychology, 24, 525-539. Ritov, I., and Baron, J. (1995). Outcome knowledge, regret, and omission bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 64, 119-127. Savelsberg, G. J. P., Williams, A. M., Kamp, J., and Ward, P. (2002). Visual search, anticipation and expertise in soccer goalkeepers. Journal of Sports Sciences, 20, 279-287. Spranca, M., Minsk, E., and Baron, J. (1991). Omission and commission in judgment and choice. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 27, 76-105. Vulkan, N. (2000). An economist's perspective on probability matching. Journal of Economic Surveys, 14, 101-118. Welsh, A. (1990). Goalkeeping. London: A and C. Black. Williams, A. M., and Burwitz, L. (1993). Advance cue utilization in soccer. In T. Reilly, J. Clarys, and A. Stibbe (Eds.), Science and football, II (pp. 239-243). London: E and FN Spon. Zeelenberg M, van den Bos K., van Dijk E., and Pieters R. (2002). The inaction effect in the psychology of regret. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82, 314-327. Zeelenberg, M., and Pieters, R. (2004). Consequences of regret aversion in real life: The case of the Dutch Postcode Lottery. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 93, 155-168.