Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability

Reinhart, Carmen and Goldstein, Morris and Kaminsky, Graciela (2000): Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Published in: Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets, Institute for International Economics (2000)

Abstract

Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of improving upon a system of “early warnings.” The signals approach introduced in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) and applied to the out-of-sample data during January 1996- June 1997 in this section we illustrate how this approach can ne applied to glean where trouble spots may be brewing.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: eraly warning, crisis, banking, currency, indicators, capital flows, current account, exchange rates, Asia, Latin America
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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