Munich Personal RePEc Archive

The Partisan Consequences of Turnout Revisited

Rowe, Kelly and Lago, Ignacio and Lago-Peñas, Santiago (2012): The Partisan Consequences of Turnout Revisited.

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Why does the leftist party vote increase when turnout increases in some countries and not in others? Why does this happen in some instances in time but not in others? Thus far there exists no academic consensus on the relationship between turnout and electoral results. This paper argues that in order to adequately address these questions we need to focus on three elements: class voting, the mechanisms behind whether the correlation is observed over the short or long-term, and the use of more rigorous model specifications. By looking at the cases of Spain and Portugal, we find a correlation in the short and long-term for Spain but not for Portugal and this is due namely to the prominence of class voting in the former.

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