Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2013): Fertility and Wars: the case of world war I in France.
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Abstract
During World War I (1914–1918) the birth rate in France fell by 50%. The corresponding deficit of births is estimated at 1.4 million, while military losses are estimated at 1.4 million too. Thus, the fertility decline doubled the demographic impact of the war. I construct a model of fertility choices where a household faces three shocks in a war: (i) an increased probability that its wife remains alone after the war; (ii) a partially-compensated loss of its husband’s income; and (iii) a decline in labor productivity followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model’s parameters to the time series of fertility before the war. I use military casualties and income data to calibrate the war. The model accounts for 91% of the observed decline, and overpredicts the subsequent rebound in fertility by 4%. The increased probability of a husband dying is the leading force behind the results.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | Fertility and Wars: the case of world war I in France |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Fertility ; war ; growth ; uncertainty |
Subjects: | J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation |
Item ID: | 46022 |
Depositing User: | Guillaume Vandenbroucke |
Date Deposited: | 10 Apr 2013 00:47 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 03:51 |
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URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/46022 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Optimal fertility during World War I. (deposited 05 Jan 2012 00:46)
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Optimal fertility during World War I. (deposited 27 Jan 2012 09:33)
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Optimal fertility during World War I. (deposited 01 Feb 2012 07:13)
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Optimal fertility during World War I. (deposited 03 May 2012 07:48)
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Fertility and Wars: the case of world war I in France. (deposited 07 Oct 2012 15:25)
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Fertility and Wars: the case of world war I in France. (deposited 03 Jan 2013 04:16)
- Fertility and Wars: the case of world war I in France. (deposited 10 Apr 2013 00:47) [Currently Displayed]
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Fertility and Wars: the case of world war I in France. (deposited 03 Jan 2013 04:16)
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Fertility and Wars: the case of world war I in France. (deposited 07 Oct 2012 15:25)
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Optimal fertility during World War I. (deposited 03 May 2012 07:48)
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Optimal fertility during World War I. (deposited 01 Feb 2012 07:13)
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Optimal fertility during World War I. (deposited 27 Jan 2012 09:33)