Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector

Zhang, Lin (2013): Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector. Forthcoming in: Journal of Energy Policy (2013)

Abstract

Energy efficiency of buildings in the service sector is becoming increasingly important in China due to the structural shift of the economy from industry to services. This paper employs a bottom-up cohort model to simulate current energy saving policies and to make projections for future energy use and CO2 emissions for the period 2000-2030 in the Chinese service sector. The analysis shows that energy demand in the service sector will approximately triple in 2030, far beyond the target of quadrupling GDP while only doubling energy use. However, it is feasible to achieve the target of emission reduction by 40% in 2020 even under the poor state of compliance rate of building standard. This paper also highlights four crucial aspects of designing optimal energy saving policies for China's service sector based on the model results.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Energy saving policy; Bottom-up; Service sector
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q47 - Energy Forecasting; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q48 - Government Policy

References

Aebischer, B. (1996): Perspectives of the Energy Consumption in the Swiss Service Sector: Modeling and Results. Proceedings of International Conference on the Perspectives of the Energy Demand and Efficient Energy Use, POSCO Centre. Seoul, Korea.

Aebischer, B., Jakob, M., Catenazzi, G. (2007). Impact of climate change on thermal comfort, heating and cooling energy demand in Europe. France. ISBN: 978-91-633-0899-4.

Alcantara, V. and Padilla, E. (2009). Input-output subsystems and pollution: An application to the service sector and CO2 emissions in Spain. Ecological Economics, Volume 68, Issue 3, Pages 905-914 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.07.010

Asia Pulse (2006): China Sets Energy Efficiency Standards in Urban Construction. Asia Pulse Pte Ltd. Website article published on 26 February 2006. http://www. asiapulse.com

Blanford, G. J., Richels, R. G., and Rutherford, T. F. (2008). Revised emissions growth projections for China: why post-Kyoto climate policy must look east. Post-Kyoto international climate policy, Cambridge.

BP Statistical review of Energy, June 2011 cited in Reuters, "Global CO2 emissions rose over 10 per cent in 2010", BP, 8 June, 2011.

Building Energy Reduction Center at Tsinghua University (THUBERC, 2009): Annual research report on building energy reduction in China. China Building Press, Beijing, China.

Cai, W.G.,Wu, Y., Zhong, Y., and Ren H.(2009): China building energy consumption: Situation, challenges and corresponding measures, Energy Policy 37(6), 2054-2059.

Catenazzi, G. (2009): Advances in techno-economic energy modeling: Costs, dynamics and hybrid aspects, Doctoral dissertation, Diss. ETH No. 18016. http://e-collection.library.ethz.ch/eserv/eth:41888/eth-41888-02.pdf

Cheng, C. (2010). A new NAMA framework for dispersed energy end-use sectors. Energy Policy, 38, 10, 5614-5624.

Cooper, J. (2003): Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries. OPEC review.

Design standard for energy efficiency of public buildings in China, GB 50189-2005.

Energy efficiency and Urban Development, CCICED 2008 Annual General Meeting. http://www.iddri.org/Activites/Ateliers/0811_Task-Force-on-Urban-Development_report.pdf

Facilitating Deployment of Highly Efficient Combined Heat and Power Applications in China, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Combined Heat and Power Partnership and Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. http://www.epa.gov/chp/documents/chpapps_china.pdf.

Glicksman, L., Norford, L., and Greden, L. (2006): SUSTAINABLE URBAN HOUS- ING IN CHINA, Alliance for Global Sustainability Book series, 2006, Volume 9, Part One, 8-21, DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4020-4786-2 2

Hirschhausen, C. and Andres, M. (2000). Long-term electricity demand in China - From quantitative to qualitative growth? Energy Policy, Vol. 28, 231-241.

IEA (2004): 30 years of energy use in IEA countries. International Energy Agency, Paris, France.

IEA (2007a): World Energy Statistics 2007. International Energy Agency, Paris, France.

IEA (2010): World Energy Statistics 2010. International Energy Agency, Paris, France.

IPCC, 2007. Assessment of policy instruments for reducing GHG from buildings. IPCC.

Jiang, K. and Hu, X. (2006): Energy demand and emissions in China: scenarios and policy options, Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference for Enhanced Building Operations, Shenzhen, China.

Lin, J., Zhou, N., Levine, M., and Fridley, D. (2008): Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: The magic of China's 11th Five-Year Plan? Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 3, 954-970.

MGI (2007): Curbing global energy demand growth: the energy productivity opportunity. McKinsey Global Institute.

National Bureau of Statistics, 2006-2010. China Statistical Yearbooks. Beijing, China.

Ravetz, J. (2008). State of the stock - What do we know about existing buildings and their future prospects? Energy Policy, 36, 12, 4462-447.

RNECSPC 2005. Research on National Energy Comprehensive Strategy and Policy of China, Economic Science Press, 2005.

Rosenblum, J., Horvath, A., and Hendrickson, C. (2000): Environmental Implica- tions of Service Industries. Environ. Sci. Technol., 34 (22), pp 4669-4676

World Bank (2006): The World Development Indicators 2006 (WDI) Database. [29] Yang, C., Xuan, X., and Jackson, R.(2012): China's coal price disturbances: Observations, explanations, and implications for global energy economies. Energy Policy 51, 720-727.

Yao, R., Li, B., and Steemer, K. (2005): Energy policy and standard for built envi- ronment in China. Renewable Energy, 30, p. 1973-88.

Zhou, N., Levine, M.D., and Price, L. (2009): Overview of current energy efficiency policies in China. Energy Policy. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.015.

Zhou, N., and Lin, J. (2007): The reality and future scenarios of commercial building energy consumption in China. LBNL-1036E, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States.

Zhou,N., McNeil, M. A., Fridley, D., Lin, J., Price, L., Stephane de la Rue du Can, Sathaye, J., Levine, M. (2007): Energy use in China: sectoral trends and future outlook. LBNL-61904, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States.