Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Noncommercial Trading in the Energy Futures Market

Dale, Charles and Zyren, John (1996): Noncommercial Trading in the Energy Futures Market. Published in: Petroleum Marketing Monthly (May 1996): xiii-xxiv.

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This paper utilizes a new approach to an examination of price impacts of speculators on futures markets. It focuses initially on specially obtained data on commodity “pools,” which are large funds of money that may move quickly between and across futures markets and other financial markets; it then broadens the scope to include large noncommercial traders in general. This research also differs from previous work in its comparison and analysis of the holdings of large commercial and noncommercial traders, and demonstrates that changes in noncommercial positions in energy futures markets are closely related to price changes in those markets. The paper concludes that noncommercial traders are likely to switch between markets and add to “hot money” flows, and that noncommercial traders follow price trends in energy markets rather than set them.

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