Estimaciones alternativas del PIB potencial en la República Dominicana

Cruz Rodriguez, Alexis and Francos Rodriguez, Martin (2008): Estimaciones alternativas del PIB potencial en la República Dominicana.

Abstract

In this paper we apply different methods to calculate the potential output of the Dominican Republic. The estimates were made using two data sets. First, we use a quarterly data set covering the period 1980-2006 and then an annual data set for the period 1950-2006 is used. The results of the estimates for each method are compared based on growth rates and generate correlations between them. Growth rates are similar and found a high correlation between the different methods used. For the period 1950-2006 the country's potential output was around 4.8%, while for the period 1980-2006 it was around 4.0%. Additionally, these results allow for calculation the gap between actual and potential output.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Alternative methods to estimate the potential GDP of the Dominican Republic
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: output gap
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E23 - Production

References

Baxter, M. y R. King (1995). "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series." Working Paper 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Burns, A. y W. Mitchell (1944). Measuring Business Cycles. Nueva York, EE.UU., National Bureau of Economic Research.

Christiano, L. J. y T. J. Fitzgerald (1999). "The Band Pass Filter." Working Paper 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Christiano, L. J. y T. J. Fitzgerald (2003). "The Band Pass Filter." International Economic Review 44(2): 435-465.

De Masi, Paula (1997) “IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice” Working Paper 97/177, International Monetary Fund

Flores, M. (2000). "El Filtro de Baxter-King, Metodología y Aplicaciones." Documento de Trabajo DIE-NT-01-2000, Banco Central de Costa Rica.

FMI (2006). "Financial Systems and Economic Cycles." World Economic Outlook, Fondo Monetario Internacional.

Gallego, F. y C. Johnson (2001). Teorías y métodos de medición del producto de tendencia: una aplicación al caso de Chile. Economía Chilena. 4: 27-52.

Hagemann, Robert (1999) “The Structural Budget Balance: The IMF’s Methodology” Working Paper 99/95, International Monetary Fund

Lizardo, M. y R. Guzman (2003), “Crecimiento económico, acumulación de factores y productividad en la República dominicana” Serie de Estudios Económicos y Sociales, Interamerican Develoment Bank.

Martí, Adolfo (1997) “Instrumental para el Estudio de la Economía Dominicana, Base de Datos (1947-1995)”, Editora Búho, Santo Domingo

Miller, S. (2003). "Métodos alternativos para la estimación de PBI potencial: Una aplicación para el caso de Perú." Estudios Económicos No. 10, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

Oficina Nacional de Planificación (1967) “Plataforma para el Desarrollo Económico y Social de la Rep. Dom. (1968-1985)” Santo Domingo

Oficina Nacional de Planificación (1976) “Posibilidades del Desarrollo Económico-Social en la Rep. Dom.” Santo Domingo. PLANDES 26 Editora Educativa Dominicana.

Oficina Nacional de Estadística, (2006) “República Dominicana en Cifras 2005”, Santo Domingo

Ravn, M. y H. Uhlig (2001). "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations." Discussion Paper 2858, Centre for Economic Research.