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¿Convergen los ciclos económicos de los estados de la zona euro?: evidencia empírica.

Escañuela Romana, Ignacio (2013): ¿Convergen los ciclos económicos de los estados de la zona euro?: evidencia empírica.

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The scientific literature supports by consensus that the Euro zone countries did not have the conditions required for an optimal currency area, at the time of acquiring the common currency. However, the endogeneity of such conditions is under debate: can the conditions for an optimal currency union be produced by the beginning of the monetary union?. If the answer is negative, some Member States have higher costs to the benefits produced by the membership in the monetary area. As a result, the survival of this common currency will be at serious risk. This paper attempts to measure the variable considered essential by the literature: the convergence or synchronization between national economic cycles, from the adoption of the Euro in 1999. This synchronization would avoid the asymmetric shocks. Shocks that have different economic consequences for the Euro member countries, making it impossible an optimal common monetary policy for all States. I employ three different methods in order to get a robust empirical measurement. I do not find any robust empirical evidence about the synchronization the national economic cycles in the Euro area. Moreover, there is no evidence of the growth of this convergence. Therefore, it must be impossible to set up a monetary policy able to face the movements that separate national cycles. The costs of Euro membership might be excessive.

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