Spatial Analysis of Income Growth in the Philippines: Evidence from Intra-Country Data (1988 to 2009)

Mapa, Dennis and Albis, Manuel Leonard and Comandante, Dorcas Mae and Cura, Josephine and Ladao, Ma. Maureen (2013): Spatial Analysis of Income Growth in the Philippines: Evidence from Intra-Country Data (1988 to 2009).

Abstract

This paper looks at the spatial relationship of the average per capita income growth using intra-country or provincial data from 1988 to 2009. The results from the study provide insights on the geographical dimensions of provincial income growth and showed evidence on the role of spatial effects in the formal econometric analysis of intra-country income growth models. Despite the data limitations, the study provides a strong empirical evidence of the presence of positive spatial dependence or degree of similarity in the average per capita income growth of the provinces, albeit the degree of positive spatial dependence weakens in the latter periods. This positive spatial correlation suggests the provinces may be converging in terms of their income growth and they do so in movements similar to their neighbors. Moreover, the study shows that spatial dependence weakened in the latter periods (1994-2000 and 2000-2009). The weakening of spatial dependence may provide insights on the uneven provincial/regional income growth experienced in the country. One possible explanation of the weak spatial dependence is that two or more groups of neighboring provinces are growing at similar rates within the group, but at different rates across groups. This opens the possibility of having different convergence clubs (of provinces) within the country.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Spatial Dependence, Moran’s Index, Intra-Country Growth Model
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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National Statistical Coordination Board, 2012. Website, www.nscb.gov.ph